SANDRACER.COM ~ ALL WEATHER RACING BLOG

Ascot Day 5 – Naps Table (Sat June 21, 2025)

Blog Post Content

Post Body

Royal Ascot Friday ~ Top Racing Tipsters Naps Table

note: *highlighted in blue naps concur with my bets
Horse Race No. Time Tipster Odds
TREANMOR152:30pmRacing Post ~ Newmarket6/5
TREANMOR152:30pmDaily Express ~ Melissa Jones6/5
TREANMOR152:30pmWeekender ~ Sam Hardy6/5
AL RIFFA223:05pmTipmantips.com ~ Tipman Tips6/1
REBEL'S ROMANCE293:05pmRacing Post ~ The Punt19/10
*INISHERIN353:40pmSunday Express4/1
SATONO REVE3113:40pmThe Scotsman ~ Glendale4/1
SATONO REVE3113:40pmThe Favourite ~ The Judge4/1
TOPGEAR3133:40pmDaily Record ~ Garry Owen17/2
*INISHERIN353:40pmSheffield Star ~ Fortunatus4/1
*INISHERIN353:40pmSunday Telegraph ~ Whistler4/1
*INISHERIN353:40pmIrish Herald ~ Ian Gaughran4/1
FLORA OF BERMUDA3143:40pmThe i ~ Jon Freeman10/1
*INISHERIN353:40pmLiverpool Echo ~ Chris Wright4/1
*INISHERIN353:40pmsportinglife.com4/1
REMMOOZ4104:20pmDaily Telegraph ~ Marlborough17/5
REMMOOZ4104:20pmRacing Post ~ Lambourn17/5
COMANCHE BRAVE444:20pmRacing Post ~ Spotlight17/5
SARACEN4114:20pmJersey Evening Post ~ Rory Paddock10/1
*PUROSANGUE575:00pmThe Guardian12/1
JARRAAF555:00pmThe Irish Field ~ Rory Delargy9/2
GET IT5115:00pmNorwich Evening News ~ Chris Connolly18/1
MORE THUNDER5215:00pmYorkshire Evening Post ~ Lee Sobot14/5
KORKER565:00pmMorning Star ~ Farringdon33/1
MORE THUNDER5215:00pmSunday Mail ~ Rockavon14/5
JARRAAF555:00pmEast Anglian Daily Times ~ Dean Kilbryde9/2
ARAMRAM5185:00pmRacing Post ~ Postdata8/1
MORE THUNDER5215:00pmDaily Post ~ Mercury14/5
ORAZIO5155:00pmDaily Mail ~ Robin Goodfellow12/1
HOLKHAM BAY5295:00pmRacing Post ~ On The Nose20/1
KORKER565:00pmWilliam Hill Racing ~ Steve Mullington33/1
ORAZIO5155:00pmDaily Mirror ~ Newsboy12/1
JARRAAF555:00pmIrish Post ~ Karl Hedley9/2
SAINT LAWRENCE5275:00pmRacing TV ~ The Score22/1
COMPLETELY RANDOM5235:00pmRacing and Football Outlook ~ Andrew Mount18/1
ORAZIO5155:00pmRacing-daily.com12/1
SERAPH GABRIEL655:35pmThe Sun ~ Templegate23/10
DAKOTA BLUE695:35pmCambridge Evening News ~ Luke Tucker18/1
SERAPH GABRIEL655:35pmPunterslounge.com ~ The Brigadier23/10
SERAPH GABRIEL655:35pmRacing Post ~ RP Ratings23/10
EL BURHAN665:35pmThe Star ~ Jason Heavey17/2
BEST SECRET645:35pmThe Times ~ Rob Wright11/2
QUAI DE BETHUNE6105:35pmDaily Star Sunday ~ Moorestyle14/1
ROOSEVELT6125:35pmScottish Sun ~ Jim Delahunt16/1
*SOBER716:10pmInsidetraxs.co.uk3/4
*SOBER716:10pmThe Racing App ~ Computeform3/4
*SOBER716:10pmAttheraces.com ~ Ratings Hub3/4
SAMUI736:10pmRacing Ahead ~ Ben Morgan19/5
WILD WAVES7116:10pmIpswich Star ~ Matt Polley6/1
*SOBER716:10pmMyracing.com ~ Adrian Wall3/4
SAMUI736:10pmMirror Online19/5
Royal Ascot Results - 21 June 2025. Going: good to firm
14:30
1. 2 Humidity 4/1
2. 4 Thesecretadversary 12/1
3. 8 Moments Of Joy 10/3
Tote Win 5.95
Places 1.75, 2.55, 1.45
Exacta: 49.20
CSF: 48.17
Tricast: 178.66
Trifecta: 145.40
Winning Jockey: J Doyle
Winning Trainer: A M Balding
Distances: 1 length, 1 1/4 length
Treanmor 5/4 F
9 ran
15:05
1. 9 Rebel's Romance 6/4F
2. 2 Al Riffa 4/1
3. 7 Ghostwriter 5/1
Tote Win 2.50
Places 1.40, 1.80, 2.20
Exacta: 12.00
CSF: 6.47
Tricast: 25.03
Trifecta: 48.40
Winning Jockey: William Buick
Winning Trainer: C Appleby
Distances: 1 3/4 length, 1 1/2 length
Rebel's Romance 6/4 F
12 ran
15:40
1. 8 Lazzat 9/2
2. 11 Satono Reve 2/1F
3. 14 Flora Of Bermuda 12/1
Tote Win 5.75
Places 1.55, 1.30, 3.30
Exacta: 20.50
CSF: 13.88
Tricast: 110.64
Trifecta: 164.60
Winning Jockey: J Doyle
Winning Trainer: J Reynier
Distances: 1/2 length, 3 lengths
Satono Reve 2/1 F
14 ran
Non Runners 6
16:20
1. 7 Noble Champion 25/1
2. 13 Spy Chief 20/1
3. 4 Comanche Brave 11/4F
Tote Win 33.20
Places 8.30, 6.00, 1.70
Exacta: 847.80
CSF: 432.33
Tricast: 1833.60
Trifecta: 4301.50
Winning Jockey: Kieran Shoemark
Winning Trainer: E Walker
Distances: 3 1/4 lengths, 2 3/4 lengths
Comanche Brave 11/4 F
15 ran
17:00
1. 11 Get It 28/1
2. 21 More Thunder 3/1F
3. 10 Ten Pounds 18/1
4. 29 Holkham Bay 28/1
Tote Win 29.00
Places 6.70, 1.65, 5.80, 8.60
Exacta: 153.90
CSF: 115.63
Tricast: 1744.71
Trifecta: 5813.00
Winning Jockey: J A Heffernan
Winning Trainer: George Baker
Distances: Head, Neck, Head
More Thunder 3/1 F
28 ran
Non Runners 8
17:35
1. 10 Quai De Bethune 12/1
2. 5 Seraph Gabriel 11/4F
3. 4 Best Secret 4/1
Tote Win 13.00
Places 4.10, 1.85, 1.75
Exacta: 70.10
CSF: 43.26
Tricast: 164.28
Trifecta: 359.70
Winning Jockey: Oisin Murphy
Winning Trainer: A M Balding
Distances: Nose, 1 length
Seraph Gabriel 11/4 F
15 ran
Non Runners 2 15
18:10
1. 1 Sober 4/5F
2. 3 Samui 10/3
3. 11 Wild Waves 11/1
Tote Win 1.80
Places 1.01, 1.80, 3.00
Exacta: 5.70
CSF: 3.66
Tricast: 17.26
Trifecta: 25.40
Winning Jockey: R L Moore
Winning Trainer: W P Mullins
Distances: 5 lengths, 2 1/4 lengths
Sober 4/5 F
9 ran
Non Runners 5 9

Labels:

Royal Ascot Bets - Day Five - 2025

Blog Post Content

Post Body

Multibet Punters▸ A 7 horse Win Super Heinz will stand you in £12.00. (120bets X 10p = £12.00)
If you go each way, make it 5p and it's the same £12.00. (240 bets X 5p = £12.00)
(21 doubles ~ 35 trebles ~ 35 fourfolds ~ 21 fivefolds ~ 7 sixfolds ~ 1 acca)
Π Going: Good to Firm (Good in Places)

2:30 Royal Ascot (Turf) (ITV)
12/1 Venetian Lace. (4th 7/1) Raced centre, prominent, ridden over 2f out, edged left and outpaced over 1f out, stayed on final 100 yard, 4th.

3:05 Royal Ascot (Turf) (ITV)
15/2 Space Legend. (Unplaced 25/1) Soon led, headed over 3f out, hung right and weakened from over 2f out, 10th.

3:40 Royal Ascot (Turf) (ITV)
4/1 Inisherin. (Unplaced 3/1) Raced centre, prominent, ridden and unable to quicken 2f out, soon edged left, no impression final furlong, 7th

4:20 Royal Ascot (Turf) (ITV)
7/1 California Dreamer. (Unplaced 13/2) Raced towards stands side, led group until over 2f out, soon beaten, 12th.

5:00 Royal Ascot (Turf) (ITV)
11/1 Purosangue. (Unplaced 12/1) Raced centre, mid-division, effort over 2f out, kept on inside final furlong, never on terms, 9th.

5:35 Royal Ascot (Turf) (ITV)
7/1 Glen To Glen. (4th 9/1) Chased leaders, steadied slightly over 6f out, headway over 2f out, every chance over 1f out, 4th and no extra inside final 100 yards, 4th.

6:10 Royal Ascot (Turf) (ITV)
4/5 Sober. (Won 4/5f) Held up in touch in mid-division, closed after 5f, went 2nd going well over 2f out, led well over 1f out, quickened clear final furlong, easily, 1st.
Returns: £1.80


Stake: 7 X £1.00 Win Singles = £7.00
Returns: £1.80
Total: Minus £5.20

Labels:

Royal Ascot - Day Five - 2025

Blog Post Content

Post Body

14:30 Ascot ~ Chesham Stakes (Listed) (Class 1) ~ 7f ~ 9 Runners
No Horse Dr Trainer Jockey Ag Wt Odds
1Brave Hunter2I MohammedS De Sousa29-550/1
2Humidity3A M BaldingJames Doyle29-59/2
3Tailgunner Joe (USA)4Dylan CunhaS M Levey29-580/1
4Thesecretadversary (IRE)7J A StackJ A Heffernan29-59/1
5Treanmor (IRE)5C ApplebyW Buick29-56/4
6Waterford Castle (IRE)6R M BeckettRossa Ryan29-528/1
7Zooter8Jack JonesDylan Hogan29-5100/1
8Moments Of Joy (USA)1A P O'BrienR L Moore29-09/4
9Venetian Lace (IRE)9C JohnstonBilly Loughnane29-012/1
All Odds▸ Treanmor 6/4 | Moments Of Joy 9/4 | Humidity 9/2 | Thesecretadversary 9/1 | Venetian Lace 12/1 | Waterford Castle 28/1 | Brave Hunter 50/1 | Tailgunner Joe 80/1 | Zooter 100/1

Race Analysis ~ 14:30 Ascot ~ Chesham Stakes (Listed)

Going▸ Good to Firm | Distance▸ 7f | Surface▸ Turf

Key Contenders

  • Treanmor (6/4) ~ Charlie Appleby’s Frankel colt, impressive winner at Newmarket over 6f on good to firm ground, top RPR of 104, middle draw (stall 5), strong stable and jockey William Buick.
  • Moments Of Joy (9/4) ~ Aidan O’Brien’s Justify filly, won her maiden at Leopardstown over 7f on good ground, RPR 100, low draw (stall 1), O’Brien’s strong record, Ryan Moore rides.
  • Humidity (9/2) ~ Andrew Balding’s colt, won narrowly at Newbury over 6f on good ground, RPR 92, brother to 2022 winner Holloway Boy, low draw (stall 3), but lower RPR compared to top contenders.
  • Thesecretadversary (9/1) ~ J A Stack’s St Mark’s Basilica colt, promising second at Leopardstown over 7f on good ground, RPR 95, middle-high draw (stall 7), could improve.
  • Venetian Lace (12/1) ~ Charlie Johnston’s Masar filly, won her only start at Chelmsford on all-weather over 6f, RPR 94, high draw (stall 9), Johnston in excellent form (4/8 recent winners), 5lb sex allowance.

📈 Form & Value Ratings (1~5)

Horse Rating Summary
Treanmor⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (form) ⭐ (value)Top form, but short odds (6/4) offer limited value.
Moments Of Joy⭐⭐⭐⭐ (form) ⭐⭐ (value)Strong contender with O’Brien’s record, slightly better value at 9/4.
Humidity⭐⭐⭐ (form) ⭐⭐ (value)Form okay, but odds (9/2) might be too short for his RPR (92).
Thesecretadversary⭐⭐⭐ (form) ⭐⭐⭐ (value)Decent form, good odds at 9/1, but less standout than Venetian Lace.
Venetian Lace⭐⭐⭐ (form) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (value)Good form with weight allowance, excellent odds at 12/1.

📊 Trends & Betting Dynamics

  • Draw▸ Middle draws (4-6) have been successful in recent Chesham Stakes, but with only 9 runners, draw bias is less pronounced. High draws (7-9) can still win if pace is strong near the stands’ side.
  • Profile▸ Many winners have had few runs, with 15 of the last 25 winners having won their sole start. Colts have a better record (10 of last 12 winners), but fillies like Bedtime Story (last year) have succeeded with the 5lb allowance.
  • Trainer▸ Aidan O’Brien has multiple wins in this race (e.g., September 2017, Point Lonsdale 2022, Bedtime Story 2024), but Charlie Johnston is currently in good form (4/8 recent winners).
  • Market▸ Treanmor is the clear favourite at 6/4, with Moments Of Joy at 9/4. Venetian Lace at 12/1 offers value, especially with her weight allowance and trainer’s form.

Conclusion▸ Treanmor sets the standard with his impressive form and top RPR of 104, but at 6/4, there’s limited value for bettors. Moments Of Joy is a strong contender with Aidan O’Brien’s record and Ryan Moore’s riding, offering slightly better odds at 9/4. Venetian Lace, with her weight allowance and Charlie Johnston’s current form, represents excellent value at 12/1, especially considering the trend of winners with few runs and the potential for fillies to succeed. Thesecretadversary and Humidity are also in the mix but offer less value compared to Venetian Lace.

⭐ Bet Analysis

  • Venetian Lace (12/1)▸ Good form with weight allowance, excellent odds, trainer in form, high draw not a major issue in small field. Implied probability ~7.7%, but her effective RPR (94 + 5lb) makes her competitive with top contenders.
  • Moments Of Joy (9/4)▸ Strong contender, but odds are still relatively short. Implied probability ~30.8%, close to her form level.
  • Treanmor (6/4)▸ Likely winner, but limited value. Implied probability ~40%, reflecting his dominance.

Recommended Bet▸ 14:30 Ascot: Venetian Lace (12/1) Win Only

15:05 Ascot ~ Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) ~ 1m 3f 211y ~ 12 Runners
No Horse Dr Trainer Jockey Ag Wt Odds
1Al Aasy (IRE)10W J HaggasJim Crowley89-310/1
2Al Riffa (FR)7J P O'BrienD McMonagle59-35/1
3Bellum Justum (IRE)9A M BaldingP J McDonald49-328/1
4Burdett Road8James OwenS D Bowen59-318/1
5Candleford (IRE)4W J HaggasTom Marquand79-322/1
6Epic Poet (IRE)3D O'MearaD Tudhope69-316/1
7Ghostwriter (IRE)2C G CoxD Egan49-313/2
8Palladium (GER)6J & T GosdenR L Moore49-312/1
9Rebel's Romance (IRE)11C ApplebyW Buick79-35/2
10Space Legend (IRE)1W J HaggasJames Doyle49-315/2
11Sunway (FR)5D MenuisierOisin Murphy49-322/1
12Tabletalk (IRE)12Tom CloverRossa Ryan49-325/1
All Odds▸ Rebel's Romance 5/2 | Al Riffa 5/1 | Ghostwriter 13/2 | Space Legend 15/2 | Al Aasy 10/1 | Palladium 12/1 | Epic Poet 16/1 | Burdett Road 18/1 | Sunway 22/1 | Candleford 22/1 | Tabletalk 25/1 | Bellum Justum 28/1

Race Analysis ~ 15:05 Ascot ~ Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2)

Going▸ Good to Firm | Distance▸ 1m 3f 211y | Surface▸ Turf

Key Contenders

  • Rebel's Romance (5/2) ~ Appleby’s multiple Group 1 winner incl. Breeders’ Cup Turf. Stall 11 has produced winners, but age 7 is a concern (most winners aged 4). Buick has 1 win from 9 rides in this race.
  • Al Riffa (5/1) ~ J P O’Brien’s Group 1 National Stakes winner. Stall 7 strong in recent years, but sire lacks Hardwicke pedigree. D McMonagle winless in this race.
  • Ghostwriter (13/2) ~ Cox’s improving 4yo and Royal Lodge winner. Stall 2 solid, age trend positive. Trainer/jockey yet to score in this race.
  • Space Legend (15/2) ~ Haggas’s Listed winner. 4yo, stall 1 ideal (won in 2024/2020). Sea The Stars has 2 wins in this race. No Group wins yet.
  • Palladium (12/1) ~ Gosden colt with solid profile. Moore has 6 wins from 17 in this race. Stall 6 fine, but form just below top level.

Form & Value Ratings (1~5)

Horse Rating Summary
Rebel's Romance⭐⭐⭐⭐Top class, but 7yo age and 5/2 odds limit value.
Al Riffa⭐⭐⭐Group 1 ability, but sire less proven, 5/1 fair.
Ghostwriter⭐⭐⭐⭐Progressive 4yo, stall 2 good, 13/2 offers value.
Space Legend⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐Listed winner, age/draw/sire trends positive. 15/2 excellent value.
Palladium⭐⭐⭐Solid form, Moore aboard, 12/1 interesting each-way play.

Trends & Betting Dynamics

  • Age▸ 9 of last 12 winners were 4yo – Ghostwriter, Space Legend fit this trend.
  • Draw▸ Stalls 1, 2, 6, 7, and 11 have recent wins – all contenders drawn well.
  • Sire▸ Sea The Stars (Space Legend) and Dubawi (Rebel's Romance) both have 2 Hardwicke wins.
  • Form▸ Group 1/2 credentials essential – Rebel's Romance and Al Riffa tick that box; Space Legend lacks Group win but improving.
  • Trainer/Jockey▸ Ryan Moore excels (6 wins), Buick only 1 win; others have yet to score in this race.
  • Market▸ 7 of last 12 winners were top 3 in betting. Space Legend offers value as a mid-market improver.

Conclusion▸ Rebel's Romance is the benchmark on class, but at 7yo and priced 5/2, he lacks value. Space Legend fits the trends (4yo, draw, sire), and offers top value at 15/2 despite no Group win yet. Ghostwriter is a fair alternative at 13/2, while Palladium with Moore can run into a place.

Bet Analysis

  • Space Legend (15/2)▸ 4yo, ideal draw, strong sire record. Win value pick.
  • Rebel’s Romance (5/2)▸ Class act, but age and odds limit upside.
  • Ghostwriter (13/2)▸ Improving and fits key trends. Solid alternative.

Recommended Bet▸ 15:05 Ascot: Space Legend (15/2) Win Only

15:40 Ascot ~ Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes (Group 1) (Class 1) ~ 6f ~ 16 Runners
No Horse Dr Trainer Jockey Ag Wt Odds
1Annaf (IRE)12M ApplebyRossa Ryan69-550/1
2Elite Status9K R BurkeC Lee49-518/1
3Grand Grey (IRE)8K A RyanJ P Spencer49-566/1
4Iberian (IRE)2C HillsBilly Loughnane49-540/1
5Inisherin13K A RyanW Buick49-54/1
6James's Delight (IRE)5C G CoxC T Keane49-550/1
7Jasour6C G CoxJim Crowley49-566/1
8Lazzat (FR)11J ReynierJames Doyle49-57/2
9Run To Freedom1H CandyT E Whelan79-580/1
10Sajir (IRE)3A FabreOisin Murphy49-528/1
11Satono Reve (JPN)16Noriyuki HoriJ Moreira69-59/2
12Storm Boy (AUS)15A P O'BrienR L Moore39-513/2
13Topgear (FR)7C H HeadS Pasquier69-59/1
14Flora Of Bermuda (IRE)4A M BaldingP J McDonald49-29/1
15Great Generation (IRE)10M BottiMarco Ghiani49-228/1
16Nighteyes (IRE)14D O'MearaD Tudhope49-2100/1
All Odds▸ Lazzat 7/2 | Inisherin 4/1 | Satono Reve 9/2 | Storm Boy 13/2 | Topgear 9/1 | Flora Of Bermuda 9/1 | Elite Status 18/1 | Sajir 28/1 | Great Generation 28/1 | Iberian 40/1 | Annaf 50/1 | Jamess Delight 50/1 | Jasour 66/1 | Grand Grey 66/1 | Run To Freedom 80/1 | Nighteyes 100/1

Race Analysis ~ 15:40 Ascot ~ Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes (Group 1)

Going▸ Good to Firm | Distance▸ 6f | Surface▸ Turf

Key Contenders

  • Lazzat (3/1) ~ J Reynier’s Dubawi colt, won G1 at Sha Tin. Strong claims. James Doyle rides; 2 wins from 8 in this race. Stall 11 suits high-draw trend.
  • Inisherin (4/1) ~ K A Ryan’s G2 York winner, needs to bounce back from poor 2023 Ascot run. Stall 13 ideal.
  • Satono Reve (9/2) ~ Noriyuki Hori’s G1-placed colt at Sha Tin/Chukyo. Needs more to win. J Moreira likely winless in this race. Stall 16 perfect draw.
  • Storm Boy (5/1) ~ A P O’Brien’s colt, disappointing lately but Ryan Moore (3/19 in this race) rides. Stall 15 suits.
  • Flora Of Bermuda (9/1) ~ A M Balding’s filly, third in this last year. P J McDonald rides (0/1). Stall 4 is a low draw.

📈 Form & Value Ratings (1~5)

Horse Rating Summary
Lazzat⭐⭐⭐⭐G1 form at Sha Tin. Stall 11 good, but jockey’s 2-win stat is a historical negative.
Inisherin⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐Ticks all trends: age, draw, recent G2 win. 4/1 offers good win-only value.
Satono Reve⭐⭐⭐Placed in G1s, ideal draw, but lacks a win at this level. 9/2 a little short on value.
Storm Boy⭐⭐⭐Strong jockey stat and draw, but current form is a major concern.
Flora Of Bermuda⭐⭐Ascot form is a plus, but low draw and lower official rating weaken case.

📊 Trends & Betting Dynamics

  • Draw▸ High draws (stalls 9+) dominant ~ 8 of last 12 winners. Lazzat (11), Inisherin (13), Satono Reve (16), and Storm Boy (15) benefit. Flora Of Bermuda (4) at a disadvantage.
  • Age▸ 4–5yo winners dominant (8/12). Lazzat, Inisherin, and Flora Of Bermuda are all aged 4.
  • Rating▸ 9/12 rated 114+. Lazzat (118) and Satono Reve (118) fit. Others slightly below.
  • Course Form▸ 10/12 had prior Ascot experience. Flora Of Bermuda (3rd last year) and Inisherin (ran poorly) qualify. Lazzat, Satono Reve, and Storm Boy have no Ascot form.
  • Market▸ Lazzat backed from 7/2 to 3/1 ~ strong support. Storm Boy also backed (13/2 → 5/1) despite patchy form. Inisherin holding steady around 4/1.

Conclusion▸ Lazzat brings strong G1 form but his price is tight, and his jockey’s record historically negative. Inisherin fits all the key historical trends ~ age, draw, and recent G2 win ~ making him the best value at 4/1. Satono Reve has good G1 credentials and a strong draw but lacks a marquee win. Flora Of Bermuda’s Ascot form is credible but a low draw and weaker rating reduce her chances. Storm Boy is risky on form but benefits from Moore and a favourable draw.

⭐ Bet Analysis

  • Inisherin (4/1)▸ Best profile fit. Strong G2 form.
  • Lazzat (3/1)▸ Leading contender on form, but price short and jockey stat is a major negative.
  • Satono Reve (9/2)▸ Place credentials on draw and form, but needs to prove winning ability at this level.

Recommended Bet▸ 15:40 Ascot: Inisherin (4/1) Win Only

16:20 Ascot ~ Jersey Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) ~ 7f ~ 15 Runners
No Horse Dr Trainer Jockey Ag Wt Odds
1Benevento (IRE)10Raphael FreireRossa Ryan39-318/1
2Brian (IRE)9J S MooreBilly Loughnane39-335/1
3Caburn (IRE)2Jack JonesDylan Hogan39-330/1
4Comanche Brave (IRE)6Donnacha O'BrienR L Moore39-34/1
5Dhitjari7P SchiergenA Starke39-350/1
6Marvelman (IRE)14A M BaldingOisin Murphy39-34/1
7Noble Champion (IRE)4E WalkerK Shoemark39-340/1
8One Smack Mac (IRE)12G M LyonsC T Keane39-333/1
9Pellitory1James OwenS De Sousa39-328/1
10Remmooz5Owen BurrowsCallum Rodriguez39-34/1
11Saracen (FR)13J P O'BrienD McMonagle39-38/1
12Seagulls Eleven (IRE)15H PalmerHarry Davies39-325/1
13Spy Chief3J & T GosdenR Havlin39-314/1
14Yah Mo Be There8R SpencerJ P Spencer39-328/1
15California Dreamer11A MurrayD Egan39-07/1
All Odds▸ Remmooz 4/1 | Comanche Brave 4/1 | Marvelman 4/1 | California Dreamer 7/1 | Saracen 8/1 | Spy Chief 14/1 | Benevento 18/1 | Seagulls Eleven 25/1 | Pellitory 28/1 | Yah Mo Be There 28/1 | Caburn 30/1 | One Smack Mac 33/1 | Brian 35/1 | Noble Champion 40/1 | Dhitjari 50/1

Race Analysis ~ 16:20 Ascot ~ Jersey Stakes (Group 3)

Going▸ Good to Firm | Distance▸ 7f | Surface▸ Turf

Key Contenders

  • Comanche Brave (4/1) ~ Donnacha O’Brien’s colt, Leopardstown 7f winner (RPR 108). Stall 6 OK but not ideal. Ryan Moore rides (20% Ascot).
  • Marvelman (4/1) ~ A M Balding’s colt, Newmarket 7f win (RPR 105). Stall 14 ideal. Oisin Murphy in hot form (18% Ascot).
  • Remmooz (4/1) ~ Owen Burrows’s colt, Kempton 7f win (RPR 103). Stall 5 a negative. Rodriguez solid, but low-profile.
  • California Dreamer (7/1) ~ A Murray’s filly, Naas 7f win (RPR 100). High draw (stall 11) suits. 3lb allowance boosts claims. D Egan rides.
  • Saracen (8/1) ~ J P O’Brien’s colt, Leopardstown win (RPR 102). Stall 13 fits draw bias. D McMonagle rides. Slightly below top-tier form.

📈 Form & Value Ratings (1~5)

Horse Rating Summary
Comanche Brave⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐Top RPR (108), Ryan Moore up. Stall 6 not ideal. 4/1 fair but short.
Marvelman⭐⭐⭐⭐Strong profile, stall 14 excellent. 4/1 fair, form just below Brave.
Remmooz⭐⭐⭐Reliable but low draw hurts. RPR 103 solid, but 4/1 too short.
California Dreamer⭐⭐⭐⭐Stall 11, 3lb claim, RPR competitive. 7/1 value angle.
Saracen⭐⭐⭐Stall 13 good, but RPR (102) lower than key rivals. 8/1 fair.

📊 Trends & Betting Dynamics

  • Draw▸ High draws (9+) have produced 7 of last 10 winners in Jersey Stakes.
  • Profile▸ 3yo with 7f form key. Fillies with 3lb claim historically competitive.
  • Trainer▸ O’Brien family have great record here. Donnacha & Joseph both runners.
  • Market▸ Comanche Brave, Marvelman, Remmooz all 4/1. California Dreamer drifting at 7/1, Saracen holding firm at 8/1.

Conclusion▸ Comanche Brave sets the standard on ratings, but stall 6 isn’t ideal versus draw trends. Marvelman ticks many boxes from stall 14 and looks a major threat. California Dreamer is the value play: high draw, 3lb allowance, and competitive RPR at 7/1. Remmooz may struggle from stall 5, while Saracen’s form leaves a bit to find despite good positioning.

⭐ Bet Analysis

  • California Dreamer (7/1)▸ High draw, 3lb claim, value play. 15% win, 35% place potential.
  • Marvelman (4/1)▸ Stall 14 ideal, solid RPR. Fair odds for 25% win shot.
  • Comanche Brave (4/1)▸ Best RPR, Moore boost, but draw tempers confidence.

Recommended Bet▸ 16:20 Ascot: California Dreamer (7/1) Win Only

17:00 Ascot ~ Wokingham Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) ~ 6f ~ 29 Runners
No Horse Draw Trainer Jockey Age Wt OR
1Apollo One17P Charalambous & J ClutterbuckD Tudhope79-12109
2Valiant Force (USA)28A MurrayD Egan49-10107
3Zoum Zoum27R M BeckettRossa Ryan49-9106
4City House (IRE)5George ScottCallum Shepherd49-8105
5Jarraaf12Owen BurrowsBilly Loughnane49-8105
6Korker (IRE)24K R BurkeJack Nicholls69-6103
7Purosangue22A M BaldingOisin Murphy49-6103
8Symbol Of Honour15C ApplebyNon Runner39-6110
9Shartash (IRE)3A WatsonJames Doyle59-5102
10Ten Pounds (IRE)4Harry CharltonT E Whelan49-5102
11Get It13George BakerJ A Heffernan79-3100
12Game Run (FR)21E MikhalidesMarvin Grandin69-3100
13Twilight Calls16R SpencerJ P Spencer79-3100
14Desert Cop25George BakerJim Crowley59-3100
15Orazio (IRE)26C HillsSaffie Osborne69-299
16Cover Up (IRE)9S & E CrisfordS De Sousa59-299
17Vadream2C FellowesK Shoemark79-299
18Aramram (IRE)19R HannonR L Moore49-198
19We Never Stop (IRE)6K A RyanS A Gray49-198
20Roman Dragon18H PalmerDavid Probert69-198
21More Thunder (IRE)23W J HaggasTom Marquand49-198
22Golden Mind (IRE)7R A FaheyWarren Fentiman49-198
23Completely Random14Harry CharltonCallum Rodriguez49-198
24Woodhay Wonder20T WardS M Levey49-198
25Noble Truth (FR)31J C McConnellL Morris69-097
26Germanic (IRE)10Miss J A CamachoRyan Sexton49-097
27Saint Lawrence (IRE)1A WatsonC T Keane79-097
28Jumby (IRE)11Eve Johnson Houghton...79-097
All Odds▸ More Thunder 7/2 | Jarraaf 11/2 | Symbol Of Honour 13/2 | Aramram 15/2 | Elmonjed 11/1 | Purosangue 11/1 | Orazio 14/1 | Get It 18/1 | Shartash 18/1 | Holkham Bay 18/1 | Woodhay Wonder 18/1 | Zoum Zoum 18/1 | Germanic 22/1 | Completely Random 22/1 | City House 25/1 | Toca Madera 25/1 | Ten Pounds 25/1 | Golden Mind 28/1 | Apollo One 28/1 | Roman Dragon 33/1 | Korker 33/1 | Saint Lawrence 33/1 | Valiant Force 40/1 | Desert Cop 40/1 | Cover Up 40/1 | Jumby 50/1 | Game Run 50/1 | Vadream 50/1 | Twilight Calls 50/1 | Noble Truth 66/1 | We Never Stop 66/1

Race Analysis ~ 17:00 Ascot ~ Wokingham Stakes (Heritage Handicap)

Going▸ Good to Firm | Distance▸ 6f | Surface▸ Turf | Runners▸ 29

Key Contenders

  • More Thunder (7/2) ~ Haggas’s improver, 111 form (Newmarket x2). Stall 23 ideal, RPR 102. No Ascot run is a stat negative (10/12 had prior Ascot runs).
  • Jarraaf (11/2) ~ Two Ascot 6f wins, progressive and well-handicapped (OR 105). Stall 12 is workable. RPR 105 makes him a leading player.
  • Purosangue (11/1) ~ Group 1 winner at Ascot. Drawn 22, ideal on drying ground. RPR 104 suggests class edge in a handicap. Top each-way value.
  • Orazio (14/1) ~ Course specialist with 2x Ascot 6f wins. Drawn 26, ticking trend boxes, but aged 6 (only 2/12 winners older than 5).
  • Woodhay Wonder (18/1) ~ Consistent filly. Ascot win over 5f and form over 6f solid. Stall 20 fits draw trend, RPR 93. Outside squeak.
Horse Rating Summary
Purosangue ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Group 1 Ascot win, ideal draw (22), RPR 104, 4yo with 9-6 fits trends. 11/1 is standout value.
Jarraaf ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Ascot specialist (2 wins), RPR 105, solid draw (12), age 4, 9-8. 11/2 is fair, lacks value edge.
More Thunder ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Progressive 4yo, RPR 102, good draw (23), but no Ascot experience. 7/2 too short for a handicap.
Orazio ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Two Ascot wins over 6f, drawn 26, consistent profile. Age 6 slightly off-trend. 14/1 represents value.
Woodhay Wonder ⭐⭐⭐ Ascot 5f winner, consistent 6f form, high draw (20), 4yo, 9-1. RPR 93 below others, but 18/1 is tempting.
Valiant Force ⭐⭐⭐ US Group performer, stall 28, interesting 4yo. Inconsistent but unexposed. 40/1 a wild-card punt.
Germanic ⭐⭐ Drawn 10 (just on the cusp), 4yo with steady form but lacks punch. RPR and recent form not standout. 22/1.
Completely Random ⭐⭐ Form just below top tier. Stall 14 okay, but profile lacks Ascot strength. 22/1 reflects that.

Draw & Trends Insight

High numbers are favoured (10 of last 12 winners from stall 10+). Strong draw positions: Purosangue (22), More Thunder (23), Orazio (26), Woodhay Wonder (20). Age 4–5 preferred, with 9/12 winners rated 99–106 and carrying 9-2 to 9-9.

Market & Betting Strategy

More Thunder is the short-priced favourite (7/2), but 11 of the last 12 winners were priced 10/1+. Purosangue at 11/1 offers standout value: proven at Ascot, drawn right, and arrives in form. Jarraaf is next best, while Orazio and Woodhay Wonder are lively outsiders. Only 1/12 favourites have won this race~trend bettors should beware short odds.

Verdict

Recommended Bet▸ Ascot 5:0: Purosangue (11/1) Win Only. Class angle in a field of handicappers. Ideal draw and proven Ascot record. A win here would be no shock.

17:35 Ascot ~ Golden Gates Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2) ~ 1m 1f 212y ~ 17 Runners
No Horse Dr Trainer Jockey Ag Wt Odds
1Rock Of Cashel (IRE)3A P O'BrienS M Levey39-950/1
2Sallaal (IRE)10R VarianRay Dawson39-68/1
3Tycoon2J & T GosdenD Egan39-618/1
4Best Secret (FR)5S WattelJames Doyle39-47/1
5Seraph Gabriel (IRE)16R M BeckettRossa Ryan39-410/3
6El Burhan (IRE)6G BougheyJim Crowley39-49/1
7Basalt (IRE)19A WatsonL Morris39-340/1
8Aurel (GER)9R M BeckettR Kingscote39-318/1
9Dakota Blue (FR)4J P MurtaghB M Coen39-318/1
10Quai De Bethune (FR)14A M BaldingOisin Murphy39-211/1
11Ernst Blofeld (IRE)18J & T GosdenW Buick39-110/1
12Roosevelt1A P O'BrienR L Moore39-111/1
13Fantazy Man (IRE)12J P MurtaghJ A Heffernan39-122/1
14War Socks11N PetersenS De Sousa39-050/1
15The King's Falcon17W J HaggasNon Runner38-1310/1
16Glen To Glen (IRE)15J P O'BrienD McMonagle38-137/1
17Brindavan (IRE)7S WoodsC T Keane38-1322/1
All Odds▸ Seraph Gabriel 10/3 | Archivist 11/2 | Glen To Glen 7/1 | Best Secret 7/1 | Sallaal 8/1 | El Burhan 9/1 | The Kings Falcon 10/1 | Ernst Blofeld 10/1 | Roosevelt 11/1 | Quai De Bethune 11/1 | Aurel 18/1 | Tycoon 18/1 | Dakota Blue 18/1 | Fantazy Man 22/1 | Brindavan 22/1 | Dantes Lad 25/1 | Basalt 40/1 | War Socks 50/1 | Rock Of Cashel 50/1

Race Analysis ~ 17:35 Ascot ~ Golden Gates Stakes (Handicap)

Going▸ Good to Firm | Distance▸ 1m 1f 212y | Surface▸ Turf

Key Contenders

  • Seraph Gabriel (10/3) ~ Ralph Beckett’s colt, recent win and close second over 7f, stepping up to 10f. Stall 16 ideal for high-draw bias, Rossa Ryan rides (14% Ascot strike rate).
  • Glen To Glen (7/1) ~ J P O’Brien’s colt, won over 1m2f at Leopardstown, stall 15 suits, D McMonagle rides, fits age and distance trends.
  • Ernst Blofeld (10/1) ~ J & T Gosden’s colt, third in Listed race over 1m2f, stall 18 strong, W Buick rides (1 win from 9 rides in similar races).
  • Quai De Bethune (11/1) ~ A M Balding’s colt, stall 14 good, Oisin Murphy rides (18% Ascot), trainer won this race in 2021.
  • Roosevelt (11/1) ~ A P O’Brien’s colt, stall 1 tricky, but R L Moore rides (20% Ascot), top connections, needs to overcome low draw.

📈 Form & Value Ratings (1~5)

Horse Rating Summary
Seraph Gabriel⭐⭐⭐⭐Recent form, high draw, favourite. 10/3 tight (~23% win).
Glen To Glen⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐Win over distance, high draw. 7/1 offers 12.5% win, 30% place.
Ernst Blofeld⭐⭐⭐⭐Listed form, high draw. 10/1 reasonable for 9% win, 25% place.
Quai De Bethune⭐⭐⭐Top trainer, high draw. 11/1 fair for 8.3% win.
Roosevelt⭐⭐⭐Top connections, low draw. 11/1 value for 8.3% win, 25% place.

📊 Trends & Betting Dynamics

  • Draw▸ High draws (10+) have been successful in recent years, with winners from stalls 17 and 18 in 2024 (Sky Sports Horse Racing).
  • Profile▸ 3yo with good form over 10f or stamina potential, handicap mark 90-105, course experience a plus (Racing Post).
  • Trainer▸ Top handlers like O’Brien, Gosden, and Varian have strong records at Royal Ascot (Sporting Life).
  • Market▸ Seraph Gabriel is the favourite at 10/3, with Glen To Glen and Best Secret next at 7/1 (Bet365).

Conclusion▸ Seraph Gabriel is the favourite with strong recent form and a favourable high draw (16), but odds of 10/3 offer limited value. Glen To Glen has solid credentials with a win over the distance and a high draw (15), making 7/1 a standout price. Ernst Blofeld’s Listed form and stall 18 suggest solid each-way value. Roosevelt has class but must overcome the inside draw.

⭐ Bet Analysis

  • Glen To Glen (7/1)▸ Proven over distance, high draw, value bet.
  • Seraph Gabriel (10/3)▸ favourite, but short odds.
  • Ernst Blofeld (10/1)▸ Listed form, high draw, good each-way chance.

Recommended Bet▸ 17:35 Ascot: Glen To Glen (7/1) Win Only

18:10 Ascot ~ Queen Alexandra Stakes (Conditions Race) (GBBPlus Race) (Class 2) ~ 2m 5f 143y ~ 11 Runners
No Horse Dr Trainer Jockey Ag Wt Odds
1Sober (FR)3W P MullinsR L Moore69-74/5
2King Of The Road (IRE)10B PaulingDavid Probert69-440/1
3Samui7G ElliottC T Keane69-411/2
4Scottish Anthem2Michael KeadyK S McHugh69-4100/1
5Tashkhan (IRE)4B EllisonCallum Shepherd79-416/1
6Trooper Bisdee (IRE)9Sir Mark PrescottL Morris59-412/1
7Youthful King8L A DaceJack Dace69-433/1
8Dallas Star (FR)1A MurrayD Egan49-312/1
9Paradoxical (IRE)5J CandlishWarren Fentiman49-3200/1
10Toby Tops6Dylan CunhaGeorge Wood49-380/1
11Wild Waves (IRE)11A M BaldingOisin Murphy49-311/2
All Odds▸ Sober 4/5 | Wild Waves 5/1 | Samui 11/2 | Dallas Star 12/1 | Trooper Bisdee 14/1 | Tashkhan 22/1 | Youthful King 35/1 | King Of The Road 40/1 | Toby Tops 80/1 | Scottish Anthem 100/1 | Paradoxical 200/1

Race Analysis ~ 18:10 Ascot ~ Queen Alexandra Stakes (Conditions Race)

Going▸ Good to Firm | Distance▸ 2m 5f 143y | Surface▸ Turf

Key Contenders

  • Sober (4/5) ~ W P Mullins’s 6yo gelding, recent win on 12 May 2025 at 4/11, OR 104, stall 3, R L Moore rides (20% Ascot). Fits age trend (6yo) and has top connections, likely to stay the distance given Camelot sire.
  • Samui (11/2) ~ G Elliott’s 6yo gelding, recent 3rd at Ascot on 17 Jun 2025 at 20/1, OR 102, stall 7, C T Keane rides. Has course form and fits age trend, value at odds, sire Siyouni with stamina from dam.
  • Wild Waves (11/2) ~ A M Balding’s 4yo gelding, poor recent form (8th on 4 May 2025, 12th on 19 Apr 2025), OR 99, stall 11, Oisin Murphy rides (18% Ascot). Age 4 is younger than trend, recent form a concern.
  • Tashkhan (16/1) ~ B Ellison’s 7yo gelding, mixed form in 2024 (15th, 3rd, 9th, etc.), OR 106, stall 4, Callum Shepherd rides. Highest rating but inconsistent, fits age trend, needs to prove stamina over 2m 5f.

📈 Form & Value Ratings (1~5)

Horse Rating Summary
Sober⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐Recent win, top connections, favourite.
Samui⭐⭐⭐⭐Recent place at Ascot, good trainer.
Wild Waves⭐⭐Poor recent form, lower rating.
Tashkhan⭐⭐⭐High rating but inconsistent form.

📊 Trends & Betting Dynamics

  • Age▸ 11/12 winners aged 6 or older; Sober, Samui, and Tashkhan fit trend, Wild Waves (4yo) does not.
  • Price▸ 3/12 winners were favourites; 7/12 in top 3 in betting. Sober is favourite; Samui in top 3.
  • Rating▸ 10/12 had rating 102+; Sober (104), Samui (102), Tashkhan (106) fit; Wild Waves (99) below trend.
  • Course Form▸ 7/12 had 2+ runs at Ascot; 4/12 had at least 1 win. Samui has recent course form (3rd on 17 Jun 2025).
  • Distance Form▸ 10/12 ran over 19-21f; 5/12 won. Sober won to 1m7f, likely to stay. Samui ran 2m; Tashkhan 2m2f.
  • Trainer▸ 7/12 winners trained by NH trainers; Mullins and Elliott have strong records.

Conclusion▸ Sober’s recent win, high rating (104), and top connections (Mullins, Moore) make him standout. Samui offers value (11/2) with recent Ascot form and Elliott trainer, fitting age and rating trends. Wild Waves’ form and rating raise doubts; Tashkhan’s inconsistency tempers his high rating. For win-only, Sober is safest; Samui is good value alternative.

⭐ Bet Analysis

  • Sober (4/5)▸ Strong favourite with solid credentials, likely winner.
  • Samui (11/2)▸ Value alternative with recent course form, good trainer.
  • Tashkhan (16/1)▸ High rating but riskier due to form.

Recommended Bet▸ 18:10 Ascot: Sober (4/5) Win Only

Labels:

Royal Ascot - Day Four - 2025

Blog Post Content

Post Body

14:30 Ascot ~ Albany Stakes (Fillies' Group 3) (Class 1) ~ 6f ~ 17 Runners
No Horse Dr Trainer Jockey Ag Wt Odds
1Awaken (IRE)3G BougheyBilly Loughnane29-225/1
2Balantina (IRE)4Donnacha O'BrienTom Marquand29-216/1
3Bibi Dahl (USA)6Jorge DelgadoRossa Ryan29-266/1
4Fairy Oak10M O'CallaghanC T Keane29-240/1
5Fitzella13H PalmerOisin Murphy29-25/1
6Gold Digger (IRE)14R SpencerJ P Spencer29-29/1
7Green Sense (IRE)8J P O'BrienD McMonagle29-29/1
8Indigo Dawn (IRE)12R HannonP J Dobbs29-250/1
9Ipanema Queen (IRE)17A MurrayD Egan29-210/1
10Magny Cours (IRE)16Daniel McLoughlinM Barzalona29-2100/1
11Nandita (IRE)2J & T GosdenW Buick29-220/1
12Oh Cecelia (IRE)5J DavisonJ J G Ryan29-228/1
13Senorita Vega (IRE)15Tom DascombeR Kingscote29-280/1
14Signora (IRE)11A P O'BrienR L Moore29-215/8
15Spinning Lizzie7Dr R Newland & J InsoleK Shoemark29-233/1
16Tahalel (IRE)9R HannonS M Levey29-218/1
17Venetian Sun (IRE)1K R BurkeC Lee29-211/1
All Odds▸ Signora 15/8 | Fitzella 5/1 | Gold Digger 9/1 | Green Sense 9/1 | Ipanema Queen 10/1 | Venetian Sun 11/1 | Balantina 16/1 | Tahalel 18/1 | Nandita 20/1 | Awaken 25/1 | Oh Cecelia 28/1 | Spinning Lizzie 33/1 | Fairy Oak 40/1 | Indigo Dawn 50/1 | Bibi Dahl 66/1 | Senorita Vega 80/1 | Magny Cours 100/1

Race Analysis ~ 14:30 Ascot ~ Albany Stakes (Group 3)

Going▸ Good to Firm (Good in Places) | Distance▸ 6f | Surface▸ Turf

Key Contenders

  • Signora (15/8) ~ Aidan O’Brien’s Frankel filly, 3rd in Naas Group 3 (6f, 73.12s). Stall 11 ideal for high-draw bias, strong stable form (20% strike rate).
  • Fitzella (5/1) ~ Palmer’s Too Darn Hot filly, won Haydock (6f, 73.45s) by 3½ lengths. Stall 13 suits, Oisin Murphy in top form (18% Ascot).
  • Green Sense (9/1) ~ J P O’Brien’s filly, 2nd in Naas Group 3 (6f, 73.12s). Stall 8 fair, but needs to reverse form with Signora.
  • Ipanema Queen (10/1) ~ Murray’s filly, dominant Curragh maiden win (6f, 72.89s). Stall 17 perfect for high-draw bias, big each-way chance.
  • Gold Digger (9/1) ~ Spencer’s filly, won Yarmouth maiden (6f, 73.01s). Stall 14 strong, but needs to step up in class.

📈 Form & Value Ratings (1~5)

Horse Rating Summary
Signora⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐Naas Group 3 form, stall 11, O’Brien’s record. 15/8 tight (~35% win).
Ipanema Queen⭐⭐⭐⭐Curragh maiden romp, stall 17 ideal. 10/1 offers 8-10% win, 20% place.
Fitzella⭐⭐⭐⭐Haydock win, stall 13, Murphy rides. 5/1 fair for 15% win chance.
Green Sense⭐⭐⭐Naas form strong, stall 8 less ideal. 9/1 reasonable for place.
Gold Digger⭐⭐⭐Yarmouth win, stall 14 good. 9/1 fair, class step-up a concern.
Venetian Sun⭐⭐Carlisle win (5f, 61.88s), stall 1 tough. 11/1 short for class rise.

📊 Trends & Betting Dynamics

  • Draw▸ High draws (10+) dominate 6f races on Good to Firm, winning 8/10 recent Albany Stakes. Low draws (1~5) struggle in big fields.
  • Profile▸ 6f speed, Group/listed form, or strong maiden win. Hold-up or mid-pack tactics suit fast pace.
  • Trainer▸ O’Brien won 2/4 recent Albany Stakes, Palmer (15%) and Hannon (12%) in form.
  • Market▸ Signora shortened from 2/1 to 15/8, Ipanema Queen steady at 10/1, Fitzella well-backed.

Conclusion▸ Signora’s Naas Group 3 form and Aidan O’Brien’s record make her the one to beat, but 15/8 offers limited value. Ipanema Queen’s explosive Curragh win and ideal stall 17 make her a serious threat at 10/1, with Fitzella also strong from stall 13. The high-draw bias on the straight course under Good to Firm conditions favours these runners.

⭐ Bet Analysis

  • Ipanema Queen (10/1)▸ Curragh form, perfect stall 17. 8-10% win, 20% place.
  • Signora (15/8)▸ Classy, but overbet for value.
  • Fitzella (5/1)▸ Haydock form, stall 13, solid for place.

Recommended Bet▸ 14:30 Ascot: Ipanema Queen (10/1) Win Only

15:05 Ascot ~ Commonwealth Cup (Group 1) (Class 1) ~ 6f ~ 22 Runners
No Horse Dr Trainer Jockey Ag Wt Odds
1Ain't Nobody (IRE)5K A RyanT Eaves39-280/1
2Arabie14K R BurkeC Lee39-2125/1
3Arizona Blaze20A MurrayD Egan39-233/1
4Berkshire Whisper (IRE)13A M BaldingK Shoemark39-2100/1
5Big Mojo (IRE)12M ApplebyHollie Doyle39-216/1
6Diablo Rojo (IRE)3Raphael FreireRossa Ryan39-280/1
7Ides Of March (IRE)22A P O'BrienW M Lordan39-218/1
8Jonquil15A M BaldingC Soumillon39-213/2
9Shadow Of Light19C ApplebyW Buick39-27/4
10Soldier's Heart8S & E CrisfordCallum Shepherd39-2100/1
11Strong Warrior9R A FaheyO J Orr39-250/1
12Whistlejacket (IRE)11A P O'BrienR L Moore39-210/1
13Arabian Dusk4S & E CrisfordHarry Davies38-1366/1
14Babouche18G M LyonsC T Keane38-135/1
15Carla Ridge (IRE)16E & P HartyC D Hayes38-13100/1
16Lady With The Lamp (IRE)17J P O'BrienD McMonagle38-1350/1
17Leovanni (IRE)21K R BurkeJames Doyle38-1328/1
18Rayevka (IRE)10F GraffardM Barzalona38-1328/1
19Sayidah Dariyan (IRE)7R HughesBilly Loughnane38-1380/1
20Shisospicy (USA)2J D AngeloOisin Murphy38-1318/1
21Sky Majesty (IRE)6W J HaggasTom Marquand38-1325/1
22Time For Sandals (IRE)1Harry EustaceR Kingscote38-1350/1
All Odds▸ Shadow Of Light 7/4 | Babouche 5/1 | Jonquil 13/2 | Whistlejacket 10/1 | Big Mojo 16/1 | Ides Of March 18/1 | Shisospicy 18/1 | Sky Majesty 25/1 | Rayevka 28/1 | Leovanni 28/1 | Arizona Blaze 33/1 | Lady With The Lamp 50/1 | Strong Warrior 50/1 | Time For Sandals 50/1 | Arabian Dusk 66/1 | Sayidah Dariyan 80/1 | Diablo Rojo 80/1 | Ain't Nobody 80/1 | Carla Ridge 100/1 | Soldier's Heart 100/1 | Berkshire Whisper 100/1 | Arabie 125/1

Race Analysis ~ 15:05 Ascot ~ Commonwealth Cup (Group 1)

Going▸ Good to Firm (Good in Places) | Distance▸ 6f | Surface▸ Turf

Key Contenders

  • Shadow Of Light (7/4) ~ Appleby’s Middle Park/Dewhurst winner, 3rd in 2000 Guineas (8f, 97.65s). Stall 19 ideal for high-draw bias, Buick in form (16%).
  • Babouche (5/1) ~ Lyons’s Phoenix Stakes winner, dominated Lacken Stakes (6f, 71.88s). Stall 18 perfect, strong chance.
  • Jonquil (13/2) ~ Balding’s Greenham winner, 2nd in Poule d’Essai (8f, 96.12s). Stall 15 suits, drop to 6f a plus.
  • Whistlejacket (10/1) ~ O’Brien’s Morny winner, 2nd to Babouche in Lacken Stakes. Stall 11 fair, Moore rides (20% Ascot).
  • Big Mojo (16/1) ~ Appleby’s Pavilion Stakes winner (C&D, 71.45s). Stall 12 decent, Hollie Doyle consistent.

📈 Form & Value Ratings (1~5)

Horse Rating Summary
Shadow Of Light⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐Middle Park form, stall 19, class edge. 7/4 tight (~36% win).
Babouche⭐⭐⭐⭐Phoenix/Lacken wins, stall 18. 5/1 offers 15% win, 30% place.
Jonquil⭐⭐⭐⭐Greenham/Poule form, stall 15. 13/2 fair for 12% win.
Whistlejacket⭐⭐⭐Morny win, stall 11 less ideal. 10/1 reasonable for place.
Big Mojo⭐⭐⭐Pavilion win, stall 12. 16/1 value for 8% win, 20% place.
Shisospicy⭐⭐US Grade 3 win (5.5f, 65.22s), stall 2 tough. 18/1 short.

📊 Trends & Betting Dynamics

  • Draw▸ High draws (15+) dominate 6f Group 1s on Good to Firm, winning 7/9 recent Commonwealth Cups. Low draws (1~7) struggle in big fields.
  • Profile▸ Group 1/2 form at 6f, speed key, hold-up or mid-pack tactics suit fast pace.
  • Trainer▸ Appleby (18%) and O’Brien (20%) excel in Ascot sprints, Lyons (15%) in form.
  • Market▸ Shadow Of Light steady at 7/4, Babouche backed from 6/1 to 5/1, Big Mojo drifting from 14/1.

Conclusion▸ Shadow Of Light’s Middle Park form and stall 19 make him the one to beat, but 7/4 offers limited value in a deep field. Babouche’s Phoenix and Lacken Stakes wins, combined with stall 18, make her a strong contender at 5/1. Jonquil’s class and Big Mojo’s course form add depth, with high draws favoured on Good to Firm ground.

⭐ Bet Analysis

  • Babouche (5/1)▸ Phoenix/Lacken form, stall 18. 15% win, 30% place.
  • Shadow Of Light (7/4)▸ Classy, but overbet for value.
  • Jonquil (13/2)▸ Greenham form, stall 15, solid place chance.

Recommended Bet▸ 15:05 Ascot: Babouche (5/1) Win Only

15:40 Ascot ~ Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes (Handicap) (GBBPlus Race) (Class 2) ~ 1m 3f 211y ~ 20 Runners
No Horse Dr Trainer Jockey Ag Wt Odds
1Teumessias Fox (IRE)14A M BaldingP J McDonald69-1233/1
2Flight Leader21J A OsborneSaffie Osborne59-1280/1
3See Hector (GER)5J A OsborneP J Dobbs69-1180/1
4Caviar Heights (IRE)16W J HaggasNon Runner49-1114/1
5Mutaawid8J & T GosdenJim Crowley49-1018/1
6Naqeeb (IRE)11Miss J A CamachoRyan Sexton59-1020/1
7Hand Of God10Harry CharltonW Buick49-915/2
8Mount Atlas17A M BaldingRob Hornby49-913/2
9Stressfree (FR)18D O'MearaD Tudhope59-918/1
10Max Mayhem19H KobeissiM Barzalona79-7100/1
11Siege Of Troy13J P MurtaghOisin Murphy49-618/1
12French Duke (IRE)15R VarianJames Doyle49-613/2
13War Rooms (IRE)12G KeaneC T Keane49-67/1
14Almosh'her22K R BurkeC Lee49-55/1
15Auld Toon Loon (IRE)4Tom DascombePierre-Louis Jamin69-422/1
16Brodure (IRE)9X BlanchetC Soumillon49-480/1
17Blue Lemons (IRE)3W P MullinsBilly Loughnane49-428/1
18Ethical Diamond (IRE)7W P MullinsR L Moore59-34/1
19Satin2Mrs J HarringtonS Foley59-333/1
20HMS President (IRE)6A KingRossa Ryan89-340/1
All Odds▸ Ethical Diamond 4/1 | Almoshher 5/1 | French Duke 13/2 | Mount Atlas 13/2 | War Rooms 7/1 | Hand Of God 15/2 | Caviar Heights 14/1 | Stressfree 18/1 | Siege Of Troy 18/1 | Mutaawid 18/1 | Naqeeb 20/1 | Auld Toon Loon 22/1 | Blue Lemons 28/1 | Satin 33/1 | Teumessias Fox 33/1 | Crystal Flyer 40/1 | HMS President 40/1 | Cumulonimbus 40/1 | See Hector 80/1 | Flight Leader 80/1 | Brodure 80/1 | Max Mayhem 100/1

Race Analysis ~ 15:40 Ascot ~ Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes (Handicap)

Going▸ Good to Firm (Good in Places) | Distance▸ 1m 3f 211y | Surface▸ Turf

Key Contenders

  • Ethical Diamond (4/1) ~ Mullins’s hurdler, 2nd in this race last year (1m 4f, 144.22s). Stall 7 fair, Moore’s 20% Ascot strike rate a boost.
  • Almosh'her (5/1) ~ Burke’s progressive colt, won York (1m 4f, 143.89s). Stall 22 ideal for high-draw bias, strong contender.
  • French Duke (13/2) ~ Varian’s unexposed colt, 2nd at Ascot (1m 4f, 146.12s). Stall 15 suits, James Doyle rides.
  • Mount Atlas (13/2) ~ Balding’s C&D winner, 5th in Ormonde Stakes (1m 5f, 164.45s). Stall 17 strong, progressive form.
  • Hand Of God (15/2) ~ Charlton’s Golden Gates winner here last year (1m 2f, 124.56s). Stall 10 decent, Buick in form (16%).

📈 Form & Value Ratings (1~5)

Horse Rating Summary
Ethical Diamond⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐2024 runner-up, hurdling form, Moore rides. 4/1 tight (~20% win).
Almosh'her⭐⭐⭐⭐York win, stall 22 perfect. 5/1 offers 15% win, 30% place.
French Duke⭐⭐⭐⭐Ascot form, stall 15, unexposed. 13/2 fair for 12% win.
Mount Atlas⭐⭐⭐C&D win, stall 17. 13/2 reasonable for place.
Hand Of God⭐⭐⭐Golden Gates win, stall 10. 15/2 value for 10% win, 25% place.
Stressfree⭐⭐Haydock win, stall 18 good. 18/1 fair for place, needs more.

📊 Trends & Betting Dynamics

  • Draw▸ High draws (9+) dominate, winning 8/10 recent runnings. 2023 saw 1-2-3-4-5 from stalls 9+. Low draws (1~5) struggle.
  • Profile▸ 4-5yo with 1m 4f form, handicap mark 95~105, course experience a plus.
  • Trainer▸ Mullins (15% Ascot), Varian (14%), and Balding (12%) in form.
  • Market▸ Ethical Diamond backed from 5/1 to 4/1, French Duke steady at 13/2, Almosh'her solid at 5/1.

Conclusion▸ Ethical Diamond’s 2024 runner-up effort and hurdling form make him a strong contender, but 4/1 is tight. Almosh'her’s York win and stall 22 align perfectly with the high-draw bias, offering value at 5/1. French Duke’s Ascot form and Mount Atlas’s C&D win keep them in the mix, with high draws favoured on Good to Firm ground.

⭐ Bet Analysis

  • Almosh'her (5/1)▸ York form, stall 22. 15% win, 30% place.
  • Ethical Diamond (4/1)▸ Classy, but overbet for value.
  • French Duke (13/2)▸ Ascot form, stall 15, solid place chance.

Recommended Bet▸ 15:40 Ascot: Almosh'her (5/1) Win Only

16:20 Ascot ~ Coronation Stakes (Fillies' Group 1) (Rnd) (Class 1) ~ 7f 213y ~ 11 Runners
No Horse Dr Trainer Jockey Ag Wt Odds
1Cathedral6R M BeckettD Egan39-233/1
2Cercene (IRE)1J G MurphyG F Carroll39-233/1
3Chantilly Lace (IRE)5R M BeckettRossa Ryan39-214/1
4Duty First8A WatsonHollie Doyle39-270/1
5Exactly (IRE)4A P O'BrienW M Lordan39-216/1
6Falakeyah2Owen BurrowsJim Crowley39-211/4
7Flight11Ollie SangsterOisin Murphy39-222/1
8January (IRE)10A P O'BrienR L Moore39-213/2
9Kon Tiki3Jane Chapple-HyamW Buick39-28/1
10Simmering7Ollie SangsterD McMonagle39-250/1
11Zarigana9F GraffardM Barzalona39-22/1
All Odds▸ Zarigana 2/1 | Falakeyah 11/4 | January 13/2 | Kon Tiki 8/1 | Chantilly Lace 14/1 | Exactly 16/1 | Flight 22/1 | Cercene 33/1 | Cathedral 33/1 | Simmering 50/1 | Duty First 70/1

Race Analysis ~ 16:20 Ascot ~ Coronation Stakes (Group 1)

Going▸ Good to Firm (Good in Places) | Distance▸ 7f 213y | Surface▸ Turf

Key Contenders

  • Zarigana (2/1) ~ Graffard’s filly, won French 1000 Guineas (1m, 96.45s) via stewards. Stall 9 suits, strong form (RPR 116).
  • Falakeyah (11/4) ~ Burrows’s unbeaten filly, won Pretty Polly (1m 2f, 124.12s). Stall 2 tricky, but class evident.
  • January (13/2) ~ O’Brien’s filly, 2nd in Fillies’ Mile (1m, 97.88s). Stall 10 ideal, Moore rides (20% Ascot).
  • Kon Tiki (8/1) ~ Chapple-Hyam’s unbeaten filly, won York listed (1m, 96.22s). Stall 3 tough, Buick in form (16%).
  • Chantilly Lace (14/1) ~ Beckett’s filly, 5th in 1000 Guineas (1m, 96.33s). Stall 5 fair, upside potential.

📈 Form & Value Ratings (1~5)

Horse Rating Summary
Zarigana⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐French Guineas win, stall 9. 2/1 tight (~33% win).
Falakeyah⭐⭐⭐⭐Pretty Polly win, stall 2 risky. 11/4 offers 20% win, 35% place.
January⭐⭐⭐⭐Fillies’ Mile form, stall 10. 13/2 fair for 15% win.
Kon Tiki⭐⭐⭐York listed win, stall 3. 8/1 reasonable for place.
Chantilly Lace⭐⭐⭐1000 Guineas form, stall 5. 14/1 value for 10% win, 25% place.
Exactly⭐⭐Leopardstown win, stall 4. 16/1 fair for place, needs more.

📊 Trends & Betting Dynamics

  • Draw▸ Middle-to-high draws (6~11) won 7/10 recent Coronation Stakes. Low draws (1~5) struggle on round course.
  • Profile▸ Group 1/2 form at 7f~1m, 1000 Guineas runners excel, hold-up tactics suit.
  • Trainer▸ O’Brien (20% Ascot) dominates (3/5 wins), Graffard (12%) and Burrows (10%) in form.
  • Market▸ Zarigana steady at 2/1, Falakeyah backed from 3/1 to 11/4, January steady at 13/2.

Conclusion▸ Zarigana’s French 1000 Guineas win and stall 9 make her the one to beat, but 2/1 offers limited value. Falakeyah’s unbeaten record and Pretty Polly romp make her a serious threat at 11/4, despite a low draw. January’s Group 1 form and stall 10 keep her in contention, with Chantilly Lace offering some value at 14/1 for big price punters.

⭐ Bet Analysis

  • Falakeyah (11/4)▸ Pretty Polly form, class edge. 20% win, 35% place.
  • Zarigana (2/1)▸ French Guineas form, overbet for value.
  • Chantilly Lace (14/1)▸ 1000 Guineas form, stall 5. 10% win, 25% place.

Recommended Bet▸ 16:20 Ascot: Falakeyah (11/4) Win Only

17:00 Ascot ~ Sandringham Stakes (Fillies' Handicap) (Str) (Class 2) ~ 1m ~ 28 Runners
No Horse Dr Trainer Jockey Ag Wt Odds
1Tabiti1R M BeckettC T Keane39-918/1
2Betty Clover23Eve Johnson HoughtonW Buick39-811/1
3Serving With Style19K R BurkeC Lee39-866/1
4Mojave River (FR)4J P O'BrienD McMonagle39-633/1
5Bountiful17G BougheyBilly Loughnane39-525/1
6Silver Ghost (IRE)20Miss E C LavelleS M Levey39-311/1
7Sweet Chariot (IRE)13A P O'BrienR L Moore39-010/1
8Amangani (IRE)26J P O'BrienW M Lordan38-1333/1
9Nancy J (IRE)11Mrs J HarringtonS Foley38-1250/1
10Supermodel (IRE)3W J HaggasTom Marquand38-128/1
11Miss Nightfall28J R FanshaweOisin Murphy38-116/1
12Never Let Go2E WalkerK Shoemark38-1020/1
13Zgharta (IRE)25A M BaldingHollie Doyle38-1014/1
14Trad Jazz7James OwenNon Runner38-933/1
15Oolong Poobong (IRE)21E BethellConnor Beasley38-912/1
16Saariselka8E WalkerM Barzalona38-940/1
17Cartwheel24Dylan CunhaAndrew Slattery38-950/1
18Dash Of Azure16R M BeckettR Kingscote38-88/1
19Cajole6J & T GosdenSaffie Osborne38-720/1
20Sea Poetry (IRE)9Owen BurrowsT E Whelan38-650/1
21Purple Rainbow14W J HaggasWarren Fentiman38-628/1
22Annsar18Jack JonesJack Doughty38-650/1
23Bassadanza12C JohnstonJ Fanning38-680/1
24Dancing Teapot (IRE)10J P O'BrienC D Hayes38-633/1
25Alfareqa27Owen BurrowsDavid Probert38-612/1
26Ryka (IRE)22D O'MearaS D Bowen38-433/1
27Arabian Leopard5D M SimcockS De Sousa38-318/1
28Eazy On The Eye15H MainGrace McEntee38-2100/1
All Odds▸ Miss Nightfall 6/1 | Supermodel 8/1 | Dash Of Azure 8/1 | Sweet Chariot 10/1 | Silver Ghost 11/1 | Betty Clover 11/1 | Oolong Poobong 12/1 | Alfareqa 12/1 | Zgharta 14/1 | Tabiti 18/1 | Arabian Leopard 18/1 | Never Let Go 20/1 | Cajole 20/1 | Bountiful 25/1 | Purple Rainbow 28/1 | Mojave River 33/1 | Trad Jazz 33/1 | Dancing Teapot 33/1 | Ryka 33/1 | Amangani 33/1 | Saariselka 40/1 | Cartwheel 50/1 | Sea Poetry 50/1 | Nancy J 50/1 | Annsar 50/1 | Serving With Style 66/1 | Bassadanza 80/1 | Eazy On The Eye 100/1

Race Analysis ~ 17:00 Ascot ~ Sandringham Stakes (Fillies' Handicap)

Going▸ Good to Firm (Good in Places) | Distance▸ 1m | Surface▸ Turf

Key Contenders

  • Miss Nightfall (6/1) ~ Fanshawe’s filly, 2nd to Silver Ghost at Goodwood (7f, 85.33s). Stall 28 ideal for high-draw bias, Oisin Murphy rides (18% Ascot).
  • Dash Of Azure (8/1) ~ Beckett’s progressive filly, won Kempton (7f, 85.12s). Stall 16 suits, unexposed at 1m.
  • Supermodel (8/1) ~ Haggas’s filly, won Nottingham (1m, 96.22s). Stall 3 tough, but form strong (RPR 94).
  • Silver Ghost (11/1) ~ Lavelle’s Goodwood winner (7f, 85.33s). Stall 20 strong, suited to 1m.
  • Sweet Chariot (10/1) ~ O’Brien’s filly, 2nd at Curragh (7f, 85.45s). Stall 13 fair, Moore’s 20% Ascot record.

📈 Form & Value Ratings (1~5)

Horse Rating Summary
Miss Nightfall⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐Goodwood form, stall 28, Murphy rides. 6/1 fair (~15% win).
Dash Of Azure⭐⭐⭐⭐Kempton win, stall 16. 8/1 offers 12% win, 30% place.
Supermodel⭐⭐⭐⭐Nottingham win, stall 3 risky. 8/1 fair for 12% win.
Silver Ghost⭐⭐⭐Goodwood win, stall 20. 11/1 reasonable for place.
Sweet Chariot⭐⭐⭐Curragh form, stall 13. 10/1 value for 10% win, 25% place.
Alfareqa⭐⭐Doncaster win, stall 27. 12/1 fair for place, needs more.

📊 Trends & Betting Dynamics

  • Draw▸ High draws (15+) dominate 1m handicaps on straight course, winning 8/10 recent runnings. Low draws (1~7) struggle in big fields.
  • Profile▸ 3yo fillies with 7f~1m form, handicap mark 85~95, listed/group form a plus.
  • Trainer▸ O’Brien (20% Ascot), Haggas (14%), and Beckett (14%) excel in fillies’ races.
  • Market▸ Miss Nightfall backed from 7/1 to 6/1, Dash Of Azure steady at 8/1, Silver Ghost drifting from 10/1 to 11/1.

Conclusion▸ Miss Nightfall’s Goodwood form and stall 28 make her a strong contender, with 6/1 offering fair value. Dash Of Azure’s progressive profile and stall 16 provide excellent potential at 8/1. Supermodel’s form is solid but hampered by stall 3, while Silver Ghost and Sweet Chariot are place contenders. High draws are key on Good to Firm ground.

⭐ Bet Analysis

  • Dash Of Azure (8/1)▸ Kempton win, stall 16. 12% win, 30% place.
  • Miss Nightfall (6/1)▸ Goodwood form, stall 28, solid enough chance.
  • Sweet Chariot (10/1)▸ Curragh form, stall 13, good place chance.

Recommended Bet▸ 17:00 Ascot: Dash Of Azure (8/1) Win Only

17:35 Ascot ~ King Edward VII Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) ~ 1m 3f 211y ~ 11 Runners
No Horse Dr Trainer Jockey Ag Wt Odds
1Amiloc6R M BeckettRossa Ryan39-25/2
2Convergent (IRE)9K R BurkeNon Runner39-210/1
3Galveston4A P O'BrienW M Lordan39-233/1
4Green Storm (IRE)10C JohnstonBilly Loughnane39-228/1
5Minhad1I MohammedTom Marquand39-2125/1
6Nightwalker2J & T GosdenC T Keane39-212/1
7Opportunity5W J HaggasJames Doyle39-212/1
8Puppet Master (IRE)7A P O'BrienR L Moore39-25/1
9Regal Ulixes8A M BaldingOisin Murphy39-216/1
10Wimbledon Hawkeye3James OwenS D Bowen39-214/1
11Zahrann (IRE)11J P MurtaghB M Coen39-25/2
All Odds▸ Amiloc 5/2 | Zahrann 5/2 | Puppet Master 5/1 | Convergent 10/1 | Nightwalker 12/1 | Opportunity 12/1 | Wimbledon Hawkeye 14/1 | Regal Ulixes 16/1 | Green Storm 28/1 | Galveston 33/1 | Minhad 125/1

Race Analysis ~ 17:35 Ascot ~ King Edward VII Stakes (Group 2)

Going▸ Good to Firm (Good in Places) | Distance▸ 1m 3f 211y | Surface▸ Turf

Key Contenders

  • Amiloc (5/2) ~ Beckett’s unbeaten colt, won Cocked Hat Stakes (11.2f, 137.88s, RPR 109). Stall 6 suits, Rossa Ryan rides (14% Ascot).
  • Zahrann (5/2) ~ Murtagh’s progressive colt, won Leopardstown listed (12f, 148.22s, RPR 105). Stall 11 ideal for high-draw bias.
  • Puppet Master (5/1) ~ O’Brien’s Lingfield Derby Trial winner (11.6f, 141.45s, RPR 105). Stall 7 strong, Moore rides (20% Ascot).
  • Wimbledon Hawkeye (14/1) ~ Owen’s Royal Lodge winner, 3rd in Dante (10.2f, 124.33s, RPR 110). Stall 3 tricky, cheekpieces on.
  • Nightwalker (12/1) ~ Gosden’s colt, 5th in Dante (10.2f, RPR 107). Stall 2 tough, blinkers added.

📈 Form & Value Ratings (1~5)

Horse Rating Summary
Amiloc⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐Cocked Hat win, stall 6. 5/2 tight (~28% win).
Zahrann⭐⭐⭐⭐Leopardstown form, stall 11. 5/2 offers 25% win, 40% place.
Puppet Master⭐⭐⭐⭐Lingfield win, stall 7. 5/1 fair for 15% win.
Wimbledon Hawkeye⭐⭐⭐Dante form, stall 3. 14/1 reasonable for place.
Nightwalker⭐⭐⭐Dante form, stall 2, blinkers. 12/1 value for 10% win, 25% place.
Opportunity⭐⭐Goodwood form, stall 5. 12/1 fair for place, needs more.

📊 Trends & Betting Dynamics

  • Draw▸ Middle-to-high draws (6~11) won 7/10 recent runnings. Low draws (1~5) struggle on round course.
  • Profile▸ 3yo colts with Group 2/3 form at 10f~12f, RPR 105+, recent win key.
  • Trainer▸ O’Brien (20% Ascot) dominates, Beckett (14%) and Murtagh (12%) in form.
  • Market▸ Amiloc and Zahrann steady at 5/2, Puppet Master backed from 6/1 to 5/1.

Conclusion▸ Amiloc’s unbeaten record and Cocked Hat win make him a standout, but 5/2 is tight. Zahrann’s Leopardstown form and stall 11 offer value at 5/2. Puppet Master’s Lingfield win and Moore’s booking keep him in contention. High draws are favoured on Good to Firm ground.

⭐ Bet Analysis

  • Zahrann (5/2)▸ Leopardstown win, stall 11. 25% win, 40% place.
  • Amiloc (5/2)▸ Cocked Hat form, overbet though.
  • Puppet Master (5/1)▸ Lingfield win, Moore rides, solid chance.

Recommended Bet▸ 17:35 Ascot: Zahrann (5/2) Win Only

18:10 Ascot ~ Palace Of Holyroodhouse Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2) ~ 5f ~ 28 Runners
No Horse Dr Trainer Jockey Ag Wt OR Odds
1Hammer The Hammer (IRE)17K A RyanT Eaves39-91008/1
2Mr Lightside (IRE)29M ApplebyK Stott39-89914/1
3Jungle Drums (IRE)20J A OsborneSaffie Osborne39-89950/1
4Candy15R SpencerGeorge Wood39-79866/1
5Miss Lamai (IRE)26K R BurkeC Lee39-69722/1
6Maw Lam (IRE)3Adrian NichollsJack Nicholls39-59650/1
7Zayer (IRE)18A WatsonHollie Doyle39-59615/2
8Stormy Impact6R A FaheyWarren Fentiman39-49516/1
9Redorange4C G CoxRossa Ryan39-49510/1
10Bodhi Bear (IRE)11J A StackJ A Heffernan39-39414/1
11King's Call (IRE)25S SpencerD Swift39-394100/1
12Realign (FR)9W J HaggasJames Doyle39-2934/1
13Ruby's Profit (IRE)21Dr R Newland & J InsoleK Shoemark39-29312/1
14Enola Holmes (IRE)7Jack JonesDavid Probert39-29380/1
15Arctic Voyage19R M BeckettR Kingscote39-19250/1
16Vingegaard (IRE)30Miss J A CamachoRyan Sexton39-19266/1
17Englemere (IRE)8G BougheyBilly Loughnane38-139066/1
18Red Sand (IRE)28E WalkerNon Runner38-139014/1
19Dark Cloud Rising27D O'MearaD Tudhope38-139020/1
20Suhail Star (IRE)1Mohammed Khalifa AlAshley Lewis38-1390125/1
21King Of Light13K R BurkeS Foley38-139050/1
22King Of Bears (IRE)5George ScottCallum Shepherd38-128940/1
23Adrestia24S & E CrisfordOisin Murphy38-128913/2
24Jorge Alvares (IRE)16G M LyonsC T Keane38-128925/1
25Brosay22P AttwaterEdward Greatrex38-118820/1
26Brighton Boy (IRE)31A M BaldingW Buick38-118820/1
27Lexington Blitz (IRE)2R M H CowellS M Levey38-118822/1
28Mearall (IRE)12R A FaheyS A Gray38-108750/1

Race Analysis ~ 18:10 Ascot ~ Palace Of Holyroodhouse Stakes (Handicap)

Going▸ Good to Firm (Good in Places) | Distance▸ 5f | Surface▸ Turf

Key Contenders

  • Hammer The Hammer (8/1) ~ Ryan’s progressive sprinter, won Chester (6f, 71.22s, RPR 100). Stall 17 suits high-draw bias.
  • Realign (4/1) ~ Haggas’s colt, dominant Salisbury win (6f, 71.88s, RPR 93). Stall 9 tricky, unexposed on handicap debut.
  • Adrestia (13/2) ~ Crisford’s filly, won Sandown nursery (5f, 59.45s, RPR 89). Stall 24 ideal, Oisin Murphy rides (18% Ascot).
  • Ruby’s Profit (12/1) ~ Newland/Insole’s filly, 3rd in Epsom Dash (5f, 59.12s, RPR 93). Stall 21 strong, value for place.
  • Zayer (15/2) ~ Watson’s colt, 4th on handicap debut (5f, RPR 96). Stall 18 suits, cheekpieces added.

📈 Form & Value Ratings (1~5)

Horse Rating Summary
Hammer The Hammer⭐⭐⭐⭐Chester win, stall 17. 8/1 fair (~10% win).
Realign⭐⭐⭐⭐Salisbury win, stall 9 risky. 4/1 tight for 15% win.
Adrestia⭐⭐⭐⭐Sandown form, stall 24. 13/2 offers 12% win, 30% place.
Ruby’s Profit⭐⭐⭐Epsom form, stall 21. 12/1 value for 8% win, 25% place.
Zayer⭐⭐⭐Handicap form, stall 18. 15/2 reasonable for place.
Redorange⭐⭐Chester win, stall 4. 10/1 fair for place, needs more.

📊 Trends & Betting Dynamics

  • Draw▸ High draws (15+) dominate 5f handicaps on straight course, winning 8/10 recent runnings. Low draws (1~7) struggle in big fields.
  • Profile▸ 3yo sprinters with 5f~6f form, OR 85~100, recent wins key.
  • Trainer▸ Haggas (14% Ascot), Crisford (12%), and Ryan (12%) in form.
  • Market▸ Realign backed from 5/1 to 4/1, Adrestia steady at 13/2, Hammer The Hammer stable at 8/1.

Conclusion▸ Hammer The Hammer’s Chester form and stall 17 make him a strong contender, but 8/1 is fair rather than generous. Adrestia’s Sandown win and stall 24 offer a bit of value at 13/2. Realign’s potential is high, but stall 9 and 4/1 odds temper enthusiasm. Ruby’s Profit and Zayer are place contenders in a competitive field.

⭐ Bet Analysis

  • Adrestia (13/2)▸ Sandown form, stall 24. 12% win, 30% place.
  • Hammer The Hammer (8/1)▸ Chester form, solid but shorter odds.
  • Ruby’s Profit (12/1)▸ Epsom form, stall 21, good place chance.

Recommended Bet▸ 18:10 Ascot: Adrestia (13/2) Win Only

Royal Ascot Results - 20 June 2025. Going: good to firm
14:30
1. 17 Venetian Sun 7/1
2. 1 Awaken 66/1
3. 2 Balantina 40/1
Tote Win 8.30
Places 2.85, 9.30, 7.05
Exacta: 290.00
CSF: 426.09
Tricast: 8768.25
Trifecta: 2966.50
Winning Jockey: Clifford Lee
Winning Trainer: K R Burke
Distances: 1 1/2 length, 1 length
Signora 15/8 F
17 ran
15:05
1. 22 Time For Sandals 25/1
2. 3 Arizona Blaze 28/1
3. 18 Rayevka 20/1
Tote Win 28.90
Places 4.40, 4.35, 4.70
Exacta: 558.80
CSF: 601.61
Tricast: 13558.69
Trifecta: 23471.90
Winning Jockey: R Kingscote
Winning Trainer: Harry Eustace
Distances: Neck, 1/2 length
Shadow Of Light 6/4 F
21 ran
Non Runners 17
15:40
1. 18 Ethical Diamond 3/1F
2. 5 Mutaawid 12/1
3. 6 Naqeeb 33/1
4. 11 Siege Of Troy 16/1
Tote Win 4.25
Places 2.00, 4.80, 13.50,
Exacta: 58.90
CSF: 43.66
Tricast: 1091.93
Trifecta: 1402.10
Winning Jockey: R L Moore
Winning Trainer: W P Mullins
Distances: 2 lengths, 1/2 length, 2 1/4 lengths
Ethical Diamond 3/1 F
18 ran
Non Runners 3 4
16:20
1. 2 Cercene 33/1
2. 11 Zarigana 6/4F
3. 8 January 8/1
Tote Win 34.00
Places 4.95, 1.45, 2.85
Exacta: 114.40
CSF: 81.37
Tricast: 475.55
Trifecta: 653.10
Winning Jockey: G F Carroll
Winning Trainer: J G Murphy
Distances: 1/2 length, 1 length
Zarigana 6/4 F
11 ran
17:00
1. 12 Never Let Go 22/1
2. 19 Cajole 25/1
3. 1 Tabiti 18/1
4. 15 Oolong Poobong 10/1
Tote Win 30.35
Places 6.70, 8.10, 3.55, 3.40
Exacta: 1009.90
CSF: 512.60
Tricast: 4929.86
Trifecta: 11164.70
Winning Jockey: Kieran Shoemark
Winning Trainer: E Walker
Distances: 1 length, 1 length, 3/4 length
Miss Nightfall 16/5 F
25 ran
Non Runners 7 10 14
17:35
1. 1 Amiloc 11/8F
2. 11 Zahrann 11/4
3. 3 Galveston 20/1
Tote Win 2.38
Places 1.20, 1.50, 4.00
Exacta: 5.80
CSF: 5.08
Tricast: 48.56
Trifecta: 67.80
Winning Jockey: Rossa Ryan
Winning Trainer: R M Beckett
Distances: 3/4 length, 2 1/4 lengths
Amiloc 11/8 F
9 ran
Non Runners 2 8
18:10
1. 23 Adrestia 10/1
2. 1 Hammer The Hammer 9/2
3. 9 Redorange 12/1
4. 7 Zayer 16/1
Tote Win 15.80
Places 4.00, 2.10, 2.35, 4.40
Exacta: 151.10
CSF: 53.36
Tricast: 594.08
Trifecta: 1711.80
Winning Jockey: Oisin Murphy
Winning Trainer: S & E Crisford
Distances: 1 length, Short Head, 1 1/4 length
Realign 7/2 F
24 ran
Non Runners 3 15 16 18

Labels: