14:30 Ascot ~ Chesham Stakes (Listed) (Class 1) ~ 7f ~ 9 Runners
| No |
Horse |
Dr |
Trainer |
Jockey |
Ag |
Wt |
Odds |
| 1 | Brave Hunter | 2 | I Mohammed | S De Sousa | 2 | 9-5 | 50/1 |
| 2 | Humidity | 3 | A M Balding | James Doyle | 2 | 9-5 | 9/2 |
| 3 | Tailgunner Joe (USA) | 4 | Dylan Cunha | S M Levey | 2 | 9-5 | 80/1 |
| 4 | Thesecretadversary (IRE) | 7 | J A Stack | J A Heffernan | 2 | 9-5 | 9/1 |
| 5 | Treanmor (IRE) | 5 | C Appleby | W Buick | 2 | 9-5 | 6/4 |
| 6 | Waterford Castle (IRE) | 6 | R M Beckett | Rossa Ryan | 2 | 9-5 | 28/1 |
| 7 | Zooter | 8 | Jack Jones | Dylan Hogan | 2 | 9-5 | 100/1 |
| 8 | Moments Of Joy (USA) | 1 | A P O'Brien | R L Moore | 2 | 9-0 | 9/4 |
| 9 | Venetian Lace (IRE) | 9 | C Johnston | Billy Loughnane | 2 | 9-0 | 12/1 |
| All Odds▸ Treanmor 6/4 | Moments Of Joy 9/4 | Humidity 9/2 | Thesecretadversary 9/1 | Venetian Lace 12/1 | Waterford Castle 28/1 | Brave Hunter 50/1 | Tailgunner Joe 80/1 | Zooter 100/1 |
Race Analysis ~ 14:30 Ascot ~ Chesham Stakes (Listed)
Going▸ Good to Firm | Distance▸ 7f | Surface▸ Turf
Key Contenders
- Treanmor (6/4) ~ Charlie Appleby’s Frankel colt, impressive winner at Newmarket over 6f on good to firm ground, top RPR of 104, middle draw (stall 5), strong stable and jockey William Buick.
- Moments Of Joy (9/4) ~ Aidan O’Brien’s Justify filly, won her maiden at Leopardstown over 7f on good ground, RPR 100, low draw (stall 1), O’Brien’s strong record, Ryan Moore rides.
- Humidity (9/2) ~ Andrew Balding’s colt, won narrowly at Newbury over 6f on good ground, RPR 92, brother to 2022 winner Holloway Boy, low draw (stall 3), but lower RPR compared to top contenders.
- Thesecretadversary (9/1) ~ J A Stack’s St Mark’s Basilica colt, promising second at Leopardstown over 7f on good ground, RPR 95, middle-high draw (stall 7), could improve.
- Venetian Lace (12/1) ~ Charlie Johnston’s Masar filly, won her only start at Chelmsford on all-weather over 6f, RPR 94, high draw (stall 9), Johnston in excellent form (4/8 recent winners), 5lb sex allowance.
📈 Form & Value Ratings (1~5)
| Horse |
Rating |
Summary |
| Treanmor | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (form) ⭐ (value) | Top form, but short odds (6/4) offer limited value. |
| Moments Of Joy | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (form) ⭐⭐ (value) | Strong contender with O’Brien’s record, slightly better value at 9/4. |
| Humidity | ⭐⭐⭐ (form) ⭐⭐ (value) | Form okay, but odds (9/2) might be too short for his RPR (92). |
| Thesecretadversary | ⭐⭐⭐ (form) ⭐⭐⭐ (value) | Decent form, good odds at 9/1, but less standout than Venetian Lace. |
| Venetian Lace | ⭐⭐⭐ (form) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (value) | Good form with weight allowance, excellent odds at 12/1. |
📊 Trends & Betting Dynamics
- Draw▸ Middle draws (4-6) have been successful in recent Chesham Stakes, but with only 9 runners, draw bias is less pronounced. High draws (7-9) can still win if pace is strong near the stands’ side.
- Profile▸ Many winners have had few runs, with 15 of the last 25 winners having won their sole start. Colts have a better record (10 of last 12 winners), but fillies like Bedtime Story (last year) have succeeded with the 5lb allowance.
- Trainer▸ Aidan O’Brien has multiple wins in this race (e.g., September 2017, Point Lonsdale 2022, Bedtime Story 2024), but Charlie Johnston is currently in good form (4/8 recent winners).
- Market▸ Treanmor is the clear favourite at 6/4, with Moments Of Joy at 9/4. Venetian Lace at 12/1 offers value, especially with her weight allowance and trainer’s form.
Conclusion▸ Treanmor sets the standard with his impressive form and top RPR of 104, but at 6/4, there’s limited value for bettors. Moments Of Joy is a strong contender with Aidan O’Brien’s record and Ryan Moore’s riding, offering slightly better odds at 9/4. Venetian Lace, with her weight allowance and Charlie Johnston’s current form, represents excellent value at 12/1, especially considering the trend of winners with few runs and the potential for fillies to succeed. Thesecretadversary and Humidity are also in the mix but offer less value compared to Venetian Lace.
⭐ Bet Analysis
- Venetian Lace (12/1)▸ Good form with weight allowance, excellent odds, trainer in form, high draw not a major issue in small field. Implied probability ~7.7%, but her effective RPR (94 + 5lb) makes her competitive with top contenders.
- Moments Of Joy (9/4)▸ Strong contender, but odds are still relatively short. Implied probability ~30.8%, close to her form level.
- Treanmor (6/4)▸ Likely winner, but limited value. Implied probability ~40%, reflecting his dominance.
Recommended Bet▸
14:30 Ascot: Venetian Lace (12/1) Win Only
15:05 Ascot ~ Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) ~ 1m 3f 211y ~ 12 Runners
| No |
Horse |
Dr |
Trainer |
Jockey |
Ag |
Wt |
Odds |
| 1 | Al Aasy (IRE) | 10 | W J Haggas | Jim Crowley | 8 | 9-3 | 10/1 |
| 2 | Al Riffa (FR) | 7 | J P O'Brien | D McMonagle | 5 | 9-3 | 5/1 |
| 3 | Bellum Justum (IRE) | 9 | A M Balding | P J McDonald | 4 | 9-3 | 28/1 |
| 4 | Burdett Road | 8 | James Owen | S D Bowen | 5 | 9-3 | 18/1 |
| 5 | Candleford (IRE) | 4 | W J Haggas | Tom Marquand | 7 | 9-3 | 22/1 |
| 6 | Epic Poet (IRE) | 3 | D O'Meara | D Tudhope | 6 | 9-3 | 16/1 |
| 7 | Ghostwriter (IRE) | 2 | C G Cox | D Egan | 4 | 9-3 | 13/2 |
| 8 | Palladium (GER) | 6 | J & T Gosden | R L Moore | 4 | 9-3 | 12/1 |
| 9 | Rebel's Romance (IRE) | 11 | C Appleby | W Buick | 7 | 9-3 | 5/2 |
| 10 | Space Legend (IRE) | 1 | W J Haggas | James Doyle | 4 | 9-3 | 15/2 |
| 11 | Sunway (FR) | 5 | D Menuisier | Oisin Murphy | 4 | 9-3 | 22/1 |
| 12 | Tabletalk (IRE) | 12 | Tom Clover | Rossa Ryan | 4 | 9-3 | 25/1 |
| All Odds▸ Rebel's Romance 5/2 | Al Riffa 5/1 | Ghostwriter 13/2 | Space Legend 15/2 | Al Aasy 10/1 | Palladium 12/1 | Epic Poet 16/1 | Burdett Road 18/1 | Sunway 22/1 | Candleford 22/1 | Tabletalk 25/1 | Bellum Justum 28/1 |
Race Analysis ~ 15:05 Ascot ~ Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2)
Going▸ Good to Firm | Distance▸ 1m 3f 211y | Surface▸ Turf
Key Contenders
- Rebel's Romance (5/2) ~ Appleby’s multiple Group 1 winner incl. Breeders’ Cup Turf. Stall 11 has produced winners, but age 7 is a concern (most winners aged 4). Buick has 1 win from 9 rides in this race.
- Al Riffa (5/1) ~ J P O’Brien’s Group 1 National Stakes winner. Stall 7 strong in recent years, but sire lacks Hardwicke pedigree. D McMonagle winless in this race.
- Ghostwriter (13/2) ~ Cox’s improving 4yo and Royal Lodge winner. Stall 2 solid, age trend positive. Trainer/jockey yet to score in this race.
- Space Legend (15/2) ~ Haggas’s Listed winner. 4yo, stall 1 ideal (won in 2024/2020). Sea The Stars has 2 wins in this race. No Group wins yet.
- Palladium (12/1) ~ Gosden colt with solid profile. Moore has 6 wins from 17 in this race. Stall 6 fine, but form just below top level.
Form & Value Ratings (1~5)
| Horse |
Rating |
Summary |
| Rebel's Romance | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Top class, but 7yo age and 5/2 odds limit value. |
| Al Riffa | ⭐⭐⭐ | Group 1 ability, but sire less proven, 5/1 fair. |
| Ghostwriter | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Progressive 4yo, stall 2 good, 13/2 offers value. |
| Space Legend | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Listed winner, age/draw/sire trends positive. 15/2 excellent value. |
| Palladium | ⭐⭐⭐ | Solid form, Moore aboard, 12/1 interesting each-way play. |
Trends & Betting Dynamics
- Age▸ 9 of last 12 winners were 4yo – Ghostwriter, Space Legend fit this trend.
- Draw▸ Stalls 1, 2, 6, 7, and 11 have recent wins – all contenders drawn well.
- Sire▸ Sea The Stars (Space Legend) and Dubawi (Rebel's Romance) both have 2 Hardwicke wins.
- Form▸ Group 1/2 credentials essential – Rebel's Romance and Al Riffa tick that box; Space Legend lacks Group win but improving.
- Trainer/Jockey▸ Ryan Moore excels (6 wins), Buick only 1 win; others have yet to score in this race.
- Market▸ 7 of last 12 winners were top 3 in betting. Space Legend offers value as a mid-market improver.
Conclusion▸ Rebel's Romance is the benchmark on class, but at 7yo and priced 5/2, he lacks value. Space Legend fits the trends (4yo, draw, sire), and offers top value at 15/2 despite no Group win yet. Ghostwriter is a fair alternative at 13/2, while Palladium with Moore can run into a place.
Bet Analysis
- Space Legend (15/2)▸ 4yo, ideal draw, strong sire record. Win value pick.
- Rebel’s Romance (5/2)▸ Class act, but age and odds limit upside.
- Ghostwriter (13/2)▸ Improving and fits key trends. Solid alternative.
Recommended Bet▸
15:05 Ascot: Space Legend (15/2) Win Only
15:40 Ascot ~ Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes (Group 1) (Class 1) ~ 6f ~ 16 Runners
| No |
Horse |
Dr |
Trainer |
Jockey |
Ag |
Wt |
Odds |
| 1 | Annaf (IRE) | 12 | M Appleby | Rossa Ryan | 6 | 9-5 | 50/1 |
| 2 | Elite Status | 9 | K R Burke | C Lee | 4 | 9-5 | 18/1 |
| 3 | Grand Grey (IRE) | 8 | K A Ryan | J P Spencer | 4 | 9-5 | 66/1 |
| 4 | Iberian (IRE) | 2 | C Hills | Billy Loughnane | 4 | 9-5 | 40/1 |
| 5 | Inisherin | 13 | K A Ryan | W Buick | 4 | 9-5 | 4/1 |
| 6 | James's Delight (IRE) | 5 | C G Cox | C T Keane | 4 | 9-5 | 50/1 |
| 7 | Jasour | 6 | C G Cox | Jim Crowley | 4 | 9-5 | 66/1 |
| 8 | Lazzat (FR) | 11 | J Reynier | James Doyle | 4 | 9-5 | 7/2 |
| 9 | Run To Freedom | 1 | H Candy | T E Whelan | 7 | 9-5 | 80/1 |
| 10 | Sajir (IRE) | 3 | A Fabre | Oisin Murphy | 4 | 9-5 | 28/1 |
| 11 | Satono Reve (JPN) | 16 | Noriyuki Hori | J Moreira | 6 | 9-5 | 9/2 |
| 12 | Storm Boy (AUS) | 15 | A P O'Brien | R L Moore | 3 | 9-5 | 13/2 |
| 13 | Topgear (FR) | 7 | C H Head | S Pasquier | 6 | 9-5 | 9/1 |
| 14 | Flora Of Bermuda (IRE) | 4 | A M Balding | P J McDonald | 4 | 9-2 | 9/1 |
| 15 | Great Generation (IRE) | 10 | M Botti | Marco Ghiani | 4 | 9-2 | 28/1 |
| 16 | Nighteyes (IRE) | 14 | D O'Meara | D Tudhope | 4 | 9-2 | 100/1 |
| All Odds▸ Lazzat 7/2 | Inisherin 4/1 | Satono Reve 9/2 | Storm Boy 13/2 | Topgear 9/1 | Flora Of Bermuda 9/1 | Elite Status 18/1 | Sajir 28/1 | Great Generation 28/1 | Iberian 40/1 | Annaf 50/1 | Jamess Delight 50/1 | Jasour 66/1 | Grand Grey 66/1 | Run To Freedom 80/1 | Nighteyes 100/1 |
Race Analysis ~ 15:40 Ascot ~ Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes (Group 1)
Going▸ Good to Firm | Distance▸ 6f | Surface▸ Turf
Key Contenders
- Lazzat (3/1) ~ J Reynier’s Dubawi colt, won G1 at Sha Tin. Strong claims. James Doyle rides; 2 wins from 8 in this race. Stall 11 suits high-draw trend.
- Inisherin (4/1) ~ K A Ryan’s G2 York winner, needs to bounce back from poor 2023 Ascot run. Stall 13 ideal.
- Satono Reve (9/2) ~ Noriyuki Hori’s G1-placed colt at Sha Tin/Chukyo. Needs more to win. J Moreira likely winless in this race. Stall 16 perfect draw.
- Storm Boy (5/1) ~ A P O’Brien’s colt, disappointing lately but Ryan Moore (3/19 in this race) rides. Stall 15 suits.
- Flora Of Bermuda (9/1) ~ A M Balding’s filly, third in this last year. P J McDonald rides (0/1). Stall 4 is a low draw.
📈 Form & Value Ratings (1~5)
| Horse |
Rating |
Summary |
| Lazzat | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | G1 form at Sha Tin. Stall 11 good, but jockey’s 2-win stat is a historical negative. |
| Inisherin | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Ticks all trends: age, draw, recent G2 win. 4/1 offers good win-only value. |
| Satono Reve | ⭐⭐⭐ | Placed in G1s, ideal draw, but lacks a win at this level. 9/2 a little short on value. |
| Storm Boy | ⭐⭐⭐ | Strong jockey stat and draw, but current form is a major concern. |
| Flora Of Bermuda | ⭐⭐ | Ascot form is a plus, but low draw and lower official rating weaken case. |
📊 Trends & Betting Dynamics
- Draw▸ High draws (stalls 9+) dominant ~ 8 of last 12 winners. Lazzat (11), Inisherin (13), Satono Reve (16), and Storm Boy (15) benefit. Flora Of Bermuda (4) at a disadvantage.
- Age▸ 4–5yo winners dominant (8/12). Lazzat, Inisherin, and Flora Of Bermuda are all aged 4.
- Rating▸ 9/12 rated 114+. Lazzat (118) and Satono Reve (118) fit. Others slightly below.
- Course Form▸ 10/12 had prior Ascot experience. Flora Of Bermuda (3rd last year) and Inisherin (ran poorly) qualify. Lazzat, Satono Reve, and Storm Boy have no Ascot form.
- Market▸ Lazzat backed from 7/2 to 3/1 ~ strong support. Storm Boy also backed (13/2 → 5/1) despite patchy form. Inisherin holding steady around 4/1.
Conclusion▸ Lazzat brings strong G1 form but his price is tight, and his jockey’s record historically negative. Inisherin fits all the key historical trends ~ age, draw, and recent G2 win ~ making him the best value at 4/1. Satono Reve has good G1 credentials and a strong draw but lacks a marquee win. Flora Of Bermuda’s Ascot form is credible but a low draw and weaker rating reduce her chances. Storm Boy is risky on form but benefits from Moore and a favourable draw.
⭐ Bet Analysis
- Inisherin (4/1)▸ Best profile fit. Strong G2 form.
- Lazzat (3/1)▸ Leading contender on form, but price short and jockey stat is a major negative.
- Satono Reve (9/2)▸ Place credentials on draw and form, but needs to prove winning ability at this level.
Recommended Bet▸ 15:40 Ascot: Inisherin (4/1) Win Only
16:20 Ascot ~ Jersey Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) ~ 7f ~ 15 Runners
| No |
Horse |
Dr |
Trainer |
Jockey |
Ag |
Wt |
Odds |
| 1 | Benevento (IRE) | 10 | Raphael Freire | Rossa Ryan | 3 | 9-3 | 18/1 |
| 2 | Brian (IRE) | 9 | J S Moore | Billy Loughnane | 3 | 9-3 | 35/1 |
| 3 | Caburn (IRE) | 2 | Jack Jones | Dylan Hogan | 3 | 9-3 | 30/1 |
| 4 | Comanche Brave (IRE) | 6 | Donnacha O'Brien | R L Moore | 3 | 9-3 | 4/1 |
| 5 | Dhitjari | 7 | P Schiergen | A Starke | 3 | 9-3 | 50/1 |
| 6 | Marvelman (IRE) | 14 | A M Balding | Oisin Murphy | 3 | 9-3 | 4/1 |
| 7 | Noble Champion (IRE) | 4 | E Walker | K Shoemark | 3 | 9-3 | 40/1 |
| 8 | One Smack Mac (IRE) | 12 | G M Lyons | C T Keane | 3 | 9-3 | 33/1 |
| 9 | Pellitory | 1 | James Owen | S De Sousa | 3 | 9-3 | 28/1 |
| 10 | Remmooz | 5 | Owen Burrows | Callum Rodriguez | 3 | 9-3 | 4/1 |
| 11 | Saracen (FR) | 13 | J P O'Brien | D McMonagle | 3 | 9-3 | 8/1 |
| 12 | Seagulls Eleven (IRE) | 15 | H Palmer | Harry Davies | 3 | 9-3 | 25/1 |
| 13 | Spy Chief | 3 | J & T Gosden | R Havlin | 3 | 9-3 | 14/1 |
| 14 | Yah Mo Be There | 8 | R Spencer | J P Spencer | 3 | 9-3 | 28/1 |
| 15 | California Dreamer | 11 | A Murray | D Egan | 3 | 9-0 | 7/1 |
| All Odds▸ Remmooz 4/1 | Comanche Brave 4/1 | Marvelman 4/1 | California Dreamer 7/1 | Saracen 8/1 | Spy Chief 14/1 | Benevento 18/1 | Seagulls Eleven 25/1 | Pellitory 28/1 | Yah Mo Be There 28/1 | Caburn 30/1 | One Smack Mac 33/1 | Brian 35/1 | Noble Champion 40/1 | Dhitjari 50/1 |
Race Analysis ~ 16:20 Ascot ~ Jersey Stakes (Group 3)
Going▸ Good to Firm | Distance▸ 7f | Surface▸ Turf
Key Contenders
- Comanche Brave (4/1) ~ Donnacha O’Brien’s colt, Leopardstown 7f winner (RPR 108). Stall 6 OK but not ideal. Ryan Moore rides (20% Ascot).
- Marvelman (4/1) ~ A M Balding’s colt, Newmarket 7f win (RPR 105). Stall 14 ideal. Oisin Murphy in hot form (18% Ascot).
- Remmooz (4/1) ~ Owen Burrows’s colt, Kempton 7f win (RPR 103). Stall 5 a negative. Rodriguez solid, but low-profile.
- California Dreamer (7/1) ~ A Murray’s filly, Naas 7f win (RPR 100). High draw (stall 11) suits. 3lb allowance boosts claims. D Egan rides.
- Saracen (8/1) ~ J P O’Brien’s colt, Leopardstown win (RPR 102). Stall 13 fits draw bias. D McMonagle rides. Slightly below top-tier form.
📈 Form & Value Ratings (1~5)
| Horse |
Rating |
Summary |
| Comanche Brave | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Top RPR (108), Ryan Moore up. Stall 6 not ideal. 4/1 fair but short. |
| Marvelman | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Strong profile, stall 14 excellent. 4/1 fair, form just below Brave. |
| Remmooz | ⭐⭐⭐ | Reliable but low draw hurts. RPR 103 solid, but 4/1 too short. |
| California Dreamer | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Stall 11, 3lb claim, RPR competitive. 7/1 value angle. |
| Saracen | ⭐⭐⭐ | Stall 13 good, but RPR (102) lower than key rivals. 8/1 fair. |
📊 Trends & Betting Dynamics
- Draw▸ High draws (9+) have produced 7 of last 10 winners in Jersey Stakes.
- Profile▸ 3yo with 7f form key. Fillies with 3lb claim historically competitive.
- Trainer▸ O’Brien family have great record here. Donnacha & Joseph both runners.
- Market▸ Comanche Brave, Marvelman, Remmooz all 4/1. California Dreamer drifting at 7/1, Saracen holding firm at 8/1.
Conclusion▸ Comanche Brave sets the standard on ratings, but stall 6 isn’t ideal versus draw trends. Marvelman ticks many boxes from stall 14 and looks a major threat. California Dreamer is the value play: high draw, 3lb allowance, and competitive RPR at 7/1. Remmooz may struggle from stall 5, while Saracen’s form leaves a bit to find despite good positioning.
⭐ Bet Analysis
- California Dreamer (7/1)▸ High draw, 3lb claim, value play. 15% win, 35% place potential.
- Marvelman (4/1)▸ Stall 14 ideal, solid RPR. Fair odds for 25% win shot.
- Comanche Brave (4/1)▸ Best RPR, Moore boost, but draw tempers confidence.
Recommended Bet▸
16:20 Ascot: California Dreamer (7/1) Win Only
17:00 Ascot ~ Wokingham Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) ~ 6f ~ 29 Runners
| No |
Horse |
Draw |
Trainer |
Jockey |
Age |
Wt |
OR |
| 1 | Apollo One | 17 | P Charalambous & J Clutterbuck | D Tudhope | 7 | 9-12 | 109 |
| 2 | Valiant Force (USA) | 28 | A Murray | D Egan | 4 | 9-10 | 107 |
| 3 | Zoum Zoum | 27 | R M Beckett | Rossa Ryan | 4 | 9-9 | 106 |
| 4 | City House (IRE) | 5 | George Scott | Callum Shepherd | 4 | 9-8 | 105 |
| 5 | Jarraaf | 12 | Owen Burrows | Billy Loughnane | 4 | 9-8 | 105 |
| 6 | Korker (IRE) | 24 | K R Burke | Jack Nicholls | 6 | 9-6 | 103 |
| 7 | Purosangue | 22 | A M Balding | Oisin Murphy | 4 | 9-6 | 103 |
| 8 | Symbol Of Honour | 15 | C Appleby | Non Runner | 3 | 9-6 | 110 |
| 9 | Shartash (IRE) | 3 | A Watson | James Doyle | 5 | 9-5 | 102 |
| 10 | Ten Pounds (IRE) | 4 | Harry Charlton | T E Whelan | 4 | 9-5 | 102 |
| 11 | Get It | 13 | George Baker | J A Heffernan | 7 | 9-3 | 100 |
| 12 | Game Run (FR) | 21 | E Mikhalides | Marvin Grandin | 6 | 9-3 | 100 |
| 13 | Twilight Calls | 16 | R Spencer | J P Spencer | 7 | 9-3 | 100 |
| 14 | Desert Cop | 25 | George Baker | Jim Crowley | 5 | 9-3 | 100 |
| 15 | Orazio (IRE) | 26 | C Hills | Saffie Osborne | 6 | 9-2 | 99 |
| 16 | Cover Up (IRE) | 9 | S & E Crisford | S De Sousa | 5 | 9-2 | 99 |
| 17 | Vadream | 2 | C Fellowes | K Shoemark | 7 | 9-2 | 99 |
| 18 | Aramram (IRE) | 19 | R Hannon | R L Moore | 4 | 9-1 | 98 |
| 19 | We Never Stop (IRE) | 6 | K A Ryan | S A Gray | 4 | 9-1 | 98 |
| 20 | Roman Dragon | 18 | H Palmer | David Probert | 6 | 9-1 | 98 |
| 21 | More Thunder (IRE) | 23 | W J Haggas | Tom Marquand | 4 | 9-1 | 98 |
| 22 | Golden Mind (IRE) | 7 | R A Fahey | Warren Fentiman | 4 | 9-1 | 98 |
| 23 | Completely Random | 14 | Harry Charlton | Callum Rodriguez | 4 | 9-1 | 98 |
| 24 | Woodhay Wonder | 20 | T Ward | S M Levey | 4 | 9-1 | 98 |
| 25 | Noble Truth (FR) | 31 | J C McConnell | L Morris | 6 | 9-0 | 97 |
| 26 | Germanic (IRE) | 10 | Miss J A Camacho | Ryan Sexton | 4 | 9-0 | 97 |
| 27 | Saint Lawrence (IRE) | 1 | A Watson | C T Keane | 7 | 9-0 | 97 |
| 28 | Jumby (IRE) | 11 | Eve Johnson Houghton | ... | 7 | 9-0 | 97 |
|
All Odds▸ More Thunder 7/2 | Jarraaf 11/2 | Symbol Of Honour 13/2 | Aramram 15/2 | Elmonjed 11/1 | Purosangue 11/1 | Orazio 14/1 | Get It 18/1 | Shartash 18/1 | Holkham Bay 18/1 | Woodhay Wonder 18/1 | Zoum Zoum 18/1 | Germanic 22/1 | Completely Random 22/1 | City House 25/1 | Toca Madera 25/1 | Ten Pounds 25/1 | Golden Mind 28/1 | Apollo One 28/1 | Roman Dragon 33/1 | Korker 33/1 | Saint Lawrence 33/1 | Valiant Force 40/1 | Desert Cop 40/1 | Cover Up 40/1 | Jumby 50/1 | Game Run 50/1 | Vadream 50/1 | Twilight Calls 50/1 | Noble Truth 66/1 | We Never Stop 66/1
|
Race Analysis ~ 17:00 Ascot ~ Wokingham Stakes (Heritage Handicap)
Going▸ Good to Firm | Distance▸ 6f | Surface▸ Turf | Runners▸ 29
Key Contenders
- More Thunder (7/2) ~ Haggas’s improver, 111 form (Newmarket x2). Stall 23 ideal, RPR 102. No Ascot run is a stat negative (10/12 had prior Ascot runs).
- Jarraaf (11/2) ~ Two Ascot 6f wins, progressive and well-handicapped (OR 105). Stall 12 is workable. RPR 105 makes him a leading player.
- Purosangue (11/1) ~ Group 1 winner at Ascot. Drawn 22, ideal on drying ground. RPR 104 suggests class edge in a handicap. Top each-way value.
- Orazio (14/1) ~ Course specialist with 2x Ascot 6f wins. Drawn 26, ticking trend boxes, but aged 6 (only 2/12 winners older than 5).
- Woodhay Wonder (18/1) ~ Consistent filly. Ascot win over 5f and form over 6f solid. Stall 20 fits draw trend, RPR 93. Outside squeak.
| Horse |
Rating |
Summary |
| Purosangue |
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Group 1 Ascot win, ideal draw (22), RPR 104, 4yo with 9-6 fits trends. 11/1 is standout value. |
| Jarraaf |
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Ascot specialist (2 wins), RPR 105, solid draw (12), age 4, 9-8. 11/2 is fair, lacks value edge. |
| More Thunder |
⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Progressive 4yo, RPR 102, good draw (23), but no Ascot experience. 7/2 too short for a handicap. |
| Orazio |
⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Two Ascot wins over 6f, drawn 26, consistent profile. Age 6 slightly off-trend. 14/1 represents value. |
| Woodhay Wonder |
⭐⭐⭐ |
Ascot 5f winner, consistent 6f form, high draw (20), 4yo, 9-1. RPR 93 below others, but 18/1 is tempting. |
| Valiant Force |
⭐⭐⭐ |
US Group performer, stall 28, interesting 4yo. Inconsistent but unexposed. 40/1 a wild-card punt. |
| Germanic |
⭐⭐ |
Drawn 10 (just on the cusp), 4yo with steady form but lacks punch. RPR and recent form not standout. 22/1. |
| Completely Random |
⭐⭐ |
Form just below top tier. Stall 14 okay, but profile lacks Ascot strength. 22/1 reflects that. |
Draw & Trends Insight
High numbers are favoured (10 of last 12 winners from stall 10+). Strong draw positions: Purosangue (22), More Thunder (23), Orazio (26), Woodhay Wonder (20). Age 4–5 preferred, with 9/12 winners rated 99–106 and carrying 9-2 to 9-9.
Market & Betting Strategy
More Thunder is the short-priced favourite (7/2), but 11 of the last 12 winners were priced 10/1+. Purosangue at 11/1 offers standout value: proven at Ascot, drawn right, and arrives in form. Jarraaf is next best, while Orazio and Woodhay Wonder are lively outsiders. Only 1/12 favourites have won this race~trend bettors should beware short odds.
Verdict
Recommended Bet▸ Ascot 5:0: Purosangue (11/1) Win Only. Class angle in a field of handicappers. Ideal draw and proven Ascot record. A win here would be no shock.
17:35 Ascot ~ Golden Gates Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2) ~ 1m 1f 212y ~ 17 Runners
| No |
Horse |
Dr |
Trainer |
Jockey |
Ag |
Wt |
Odds |
| 1 | Rock Of Cashel (IRE) | 3 | A P O'Brien | S M Levey | 3 | 9-9 | 50/1 |
| 2 | Sallaal (IRE) | 10 | R Varian | Ray Dawson | 3 | 9-6 | 8/1 |
| 3 | Tycoon | 2 | J & T Gosden | D Egan | 3 | 9-6 | 18/1 |
| 4 | Best Secret (FR) | 5 | S Wattel | James Doyle | 3 | 9-4 | 7/1 |
| 5 | Seraph Gabriel (IRE) | 16 | R M Beckett | Rossa Ryan | 3 | 9-4 | 10/3 |
| 6 | El Burhan (IRE) | 6 | G Boughey | Jim Crowley | 3 | 9-4 | 9/1 |
| 7 | Basalt (IRE) | 19 | A Watson | L Morris | 3 | 9-3 | 40/1 |
| 8 | Aurel (GER) | 9 | R M Beckett | R Kingscote | 3 | 9-3 | 18/1 |
| 9 | Dakota Blue (FR) | 4 | J P Murtagh | B M Coen | 3 | 9-3 | 18/1 |
| 10 | Quai De Bethune (FR) | 14 | A M Balding | Oisin Murphy | 3 | 9-2 | 11/1 |
| 11 | Ernst Blofeld (IRE) | 18 | J & T Gosden | W Buick | 3 | 9-1 | 10/1 |
| 12 | Roosevelt | 1 | A P O'Brien | R L Moore | 3 | 9-1 | 11/1 |
| 13 | Fantazy Man (IRE) | 12 | J P Murtagh | J A Heffernan | 3 | 9-1 | 22/1 |
| 14 | War Socks | 11 | N Petersen | S De Sousa | 3 | 9-0 | 50/1 |
| 15 | The King's Falcon | 17 | W J Haggas | Non Runner | 3 | 8-13 | 10/1 |
| 16 | Glen To Glen (IRE) | 15 | J P O'Brien | D McMonagle | 3 | 8-13 | 7/1 |
| 17 | Brindavan (IRE) | 7 | S Woods | C T Keane | 3 | 8-13 | 22/1 |
| All Odds▸ Seraph Gabriel 10/3 | Archivist 11/2 | Glen To Glen 7/1 | Best Secret 7/1 | Sallaal 8/1 | El Burhan 9/1 | The Kings Falcon 10/1 | Ernst Blofeld 10/1 | Roosevelt 11/1 | Quai De Bethune 11/1 | Aurel 18/1 | Tycoon 18/1 | Dakota Blue 18/1 | Fantazy Man 22/1 | Brindavan 22/1 | Dantes Lad 25/1 | Basalt 40/1 | War Socks 50/1 | Rock Of Cashel 50/1 |
Race Analysis ~ 17:35 Ascot ~ Golden Gates Stakes (Handicap)
Going▸ Good to Firm | Distance▸ 1m 1f 212y | Surface▸ Turf
Key Contenders
- Seraph Gabriel (10/3) ~ Ralph Beckett’s colt, recent win and close second over 7f, stepping up to 10f. Stall 16 ideal for high-draw bias, Rossa Ryan rides (14% Ascot strike rate).
- Glen To Glen (7/1) ~ J P O’Brien’s colt, won over 1m2f at Leopardstown, stall 15 suits, D McMonagle rides, fits age and distance trends.
- Ernst Blofeld (10/1) ~ J & T Gosden’s colt, third in Listed race over 1m2f, stall 18 strong, W Buick rides (1 win from 9 rides in similar races).
- Quai De Bethune (11/1) ~ A M Balding’s colt, stall 14 good, Oisin Murphy rides (18% Ascot), trainer won this race in 2021.
- Roosevelt (11/1) ~ A P O’Brien’s colt, stall 1 tricky, but R L Moore rides (20% Ascot), top connections, needs to overcome low draw.
📈 Form & Value Ratings (1~5)
| Horse |
Rating |
Summary |
| Seraph Gabriel | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Recent form, high draw, favourite. 10/3 tight (~23% win). |
| Glen To Glen | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Win over distance, high draw. 7/1 offers 12.5% win, 30% place. |
| Ernst Blofeld | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Listed form, high draw. 10/1 reasonable for 9% win, 25% place. |
| Quai De Bethune | ⭐⭐⭐ | Top trainer, high draw. 11/1 fair for 8.3% win. |
| Roosevelt | ⭐⭐⭐ | Top connections, low draw. 11/1 value for 8.3% win, 25% place. |
📊 Trends & Betting Dynamics
- Draw▸ High draws (10+) have been successful in recent years, with winners from stalls 17 and 18 in 2024 (Sky Sports Horse Racing).
- Profile▸ 3yo with good form over 10f or stamina potential, handicap mark 90-105, course experience a plus (Racing Post).
- Trainer▸ Top handlers like O’Brien, Gosden, and Varian have strong records at Royal Ascot (Sporting Life).
- Market▸ Seraph Gabriel is the favourite at 10/3, with Glen To Glen and Best Secret next at 7/1 (Bet365).
Conclusion▸ Seraph Gabriel is the favourite with strong recent form and a favourable high draw (16), but odds of 10/3 offer limited value. Glen To Glen has solid credentials with a win over the distance and a high draw (15), making 7/1 a standout price. Ernst Blofeld’s Listed form and stall 18 suggest solid each-way value. Roosevelt has class but must overcome the inside draw.
⭐ Bet Analysis
- Glen To Glen (7/1)▸ Proven over distance, high draw, value bet.
- Seraph Gabriel (10/3)▸ favourite, but short odds.
- Ernst Blofeld (10/1)▸ Listed form, high draw, good each-way chance.
Recommended Bet▸
17:35 Ascot: Glen To Glen (7/1) Win Only
18:10 Ascot ~ Queen Alexandra Stakes (Conditions Race) (GBBPlus Race) (Class 2) ~ 2m 5f 143y ~ 11 Runners
| No |
Horse |
Dr |
Trainer |
Jockey |
Ag |
Wt |
Odds |
| 1 | Sober (FR) | 3 | W P Mullins | R L Moore | 6 | 9-7 | 4/5 |
| 2 | King Of The Road (IRE) | 10 | B Pauling | David Probert | 6 | 9-4 | 40/1 |
| 3 | Samui | 7 | G Elliott | C T Keane | 6 | 9-4 | 11/2 |
| 4 | Scottish Anthem | 2 | Michael Keady | K S McHugh | 6 | 9-4 | 100/1 |
| 5 | Tashkhan (IRE) | 4 | B Ellison | Callum Shepherd | 7 | 9-4 | 16/1 |
| 6 | Trooper Bisdee (IRE) | 9 | Sir Mark Prescott | L Morris | 5 | 9-4 | 12/1 |
| 7 | Youthful King | 8 | L A Dace | Jack Dace | 6 | 9-4 | 33/1 |
| 8 | Dallas Star (FR) | 1 | A Murray | D Egan | 4 | 9-3 | 12/1 |
| 9 | Paradoxical (IRE) | 5 | J Candlish | Warren Fentiman | 4 | 9-3 | 200/1 |
| 10 | Toby Tops | 6 | Dylan Cunha | George Wood | 4 | 9-3 | 80/1 |
| 11 | Wild Waves (IRE) | 11 | A M Balding | Oisin Murphy | 4 | 9-3 | 11/2 |
| All Odds▸ Sober 4/5 | Wild Waves 5/1 | Samui 11/2 | Dallas Star 12/1 | Trooper Bisdee 14/1 | Tashkhan 22/1 | Youthful King 35/1 | King Of The Road 40/1 | Toby Tops 80/1 | Scottish Anthem 100/1 | Paradoxical 200/1 |
Race Analysis ~ 18:10 Ascot ~ Queen Alexandra Stakes (Conditions Race)
Going▸ Good to Firm | Distance▸ 2m 5f 143y | Surface▸ Turf
Key Contenders
- Sober (4/5) ~ W P Mullins’s 6yo gelding, recent win on 12 May 2025 at 4/11, OR 104, stall 3, R L Moore rides (20% Ascot). Fits age trend (6yo) and has top connections, likely to stay the distance given Camelot sire.
- Samui (11/2) ~ G Elliott’s 6yo gelding, recent 3rd at Ascot on 17 Jun 2025 at 20/1, OR 102, stall 7, C T Keane rides. Has course form and fits age trend, value at odds, sire Siyouni with stamina from dam.
- Wild Waves (11/2) ~ A M Balding’s 4yo gelding, poor recent form (8th on 4 May 2025, 12th on 19 Apr 2025), OR 99, stall 11, Oisin Murphy rides (18% Ascot). Age 4 is younger than trend, recent form a concern.
- Tashkhan (16/1) ~ B Ellison’s 7yo gelding, mixed form in 2024 (15th, 3rd, 9th, etc.), OR 106, stall 4, Callum Shepherd rides. Highest rating but inconsistent, fits age trend, needs to prove stamina over 2m 5f.
📈 Form & Value Ratings (1~5)
| Horse |
Rating |
Summary |
| Sober | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Recent win, top connections, favourite. |
| Samui | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Recent place at Ascot, good trainer. |
| Wild Waves | ⭐⭐ | Poor recent form, lower rating. |
| Tashkhan | ⭐⭐⭐ | High rating but inconsistent form. |
📊 Trends & Betting Dynamics
- Age▸ 11/12 winners aged 6 or older; Sober, Samui, and Tashkhan fit trend, Wild Waves (4yo) does not.
- Price▸ 3/12 winners were favourites; 7/12 in top 3 in betting. Sober is favourite; Samui in top 3.
- Rating▸ 10/12 had rating 102+; Sober (104), Samui (102), Tashkhan (106) fit; Wild Waves (99) below trend.
- Course Form▸ 7/12 had 2+ runs at Ascot; 4/12 had at least 1 win. Samui has recent course form (3rd on 17 Jun 2025).
- Distance Form▸ 10/12 ran over 19-21f; 5/12 won. Sober won to 1m7f, likely to stay. Samui ran 2m; Tashkhan 2m2f.
- Trainer▸ 7/12 winners trained by NH trainers; Mullins and Elliott have strong records.
Conclusion▸ Sober’s recent win, high rating (104), and top connections (Mullins, Moore) make him standout. Samui offers value (11/2) with recent Ascot form and Elliott trainer, fitting age and rating trends. Wild Waves’ form and rating raise doubts; Tashkhan’s inconsistency tempers his high rating. For win-only, Sober is safest; Samui is good value alternative.
⭐ Bet Analysis
- Sober (4/5)▸ Strong favourite with solid credentials, likely winner.
- Samui (11/2)▸ Value alternative with recent course form, good trainer.
- Tashkhan (16/1)▸ High rating but riskier due to form.
Recommended Bet▸
18:10 Ascot: Sober (4/5) Win Only
