SANDRACER.COM ~ ALL WEATHER RACING BLOG

Overpriced UK Horse Watch (Mon Jul 14)

Blog Post Content

Post Body

Potentially Overpriced UK Horses Watch

Caricature of a punter studying the odds

On The Hunt For Potentially Overpriced UK Horses

❏ Uber large price horses I am keeping an eye on regarding the betting market. For various reasons, I think they are potentially overpriced odds runners.

❏ It will be interesting to me atleast, to keep a close watch on how these big priced runners do, re the market and how they run.

⚠ Potential Overpriced Horse ⚠

❏ I won't bore anyone with how spotting the potentially overpriced horse sausage is made.

❏ Just let's keep an eye on them.

❖ It's with these kind of horses, that multibet players might just pull off the big one, one day.

⍣ Click ⍣ 2 Uber Bets Landed For Punters This Weekend 💰

    Potentially Overpriced Uber Price Horses

    Newton Abbot NH Jumps▼
  • 3:20 War Lord 20/1 (3rd 16/1)
  • 3:50 Thahab Ifraj 22/1 (Unp 10/1)
    • Ayr Turf Flat▼
  • 3:40 Trais Fluors 40/1 (Unp 33/1)
  • 4:10 Chiefman 50/1 (Unp 66/1)
  • 4:40 Ajdayet 33/1 (Unp 40/1)
    • Windsor Turf Flat▼
  • 8.00 Mehmar 18/1 (Unp 22/1)
  • 8.30 Newfangled 12/1 (2nd 8/1 from 12's)
⍣ Click ⍣ To Go To Oddschecker To Keep An Eye On The Prices 🔍 ⍣ Click ⍣ To Go To At The Races To Check On The Market Movers 🔍

Labels:

Southwell Bets - Sun Jul 13 2025 (afternoon meeting)

Blog Post Content

Post Body

4:40 9/2f Likealot looks like a 2/1 favourite to me in this fillies handicap.

Rossa Ryan is in the hotseat and to be honest, he wins more than his fair share at Southwell, so I think the bet of the day has to be this 9/2 shot. I am expecting the price to shorten maybe. Cheers, Sandracer.

Π Going: Tapeta - Standard

2:55 Southwell (AW Tapeta)
# No Bet.

3:30 Southwell (AW Tapeta)
# No Bet.

4:05 Southwell (AW Tapeta)
# No Bet.

4:40 Southwell (AW Tapeta)
9/2 Likealot. (2nd 4/1f) Chased leaders, pushed along well over 1f out, went 2nd approaching 1f out, kept on but always held by winner, 2nd.

5:15 Southwell (AW Tapeta)
# No Bet.

5:45 Southwell (AW Tapeta)
# No Bet.

6:15 Southwell (AW Tapeta)
# No Bet.

6:45 Southwell (AW Tapeta)
# No Bet.

Stake: 1 X £1.00 Win Single = £1.00
Returns: 0.00
Total: Minus £1.00

Southwell Results - 13 July 2025. Going: standard
14:55
1. 6 Perfect Location 9/2
2. 9 Startled Lady 18/1
3. 3 Elara May 7/2
Tote Win 5.50
Places 1.50, 4.70, 1.40
Exacta: 92.00
CSF: 81.71
Trifecta: 426.10
Winning Jockey: S M Levey
Winning Trainer: T Ward
Distances: Neck, 1 1/2 length
Arduis Invicta 11/8 F
9 ran
15:30
1. 2 Azleet 4/1
2. 3 Bosom Pals 9/1
3. 9 Sovereign Bright 13/8F
Tote Win 5.00
Places 1.30, 2.90, 1.30
Exacta: 39.10
CSF: 38.84
Trifecta: 150.20
Winning Jockey: Marco Ghiani
Winning Trainer: S C Williams
Distances: 5 lengths, 1 length
Sovereign Bright 13/8 F
11 ran
16:05
1. 5 Tremolo 13/2
2. 8 Impartiality 16/1
3. 7 Transparent 9/2F
Tote Win 7.50
Places 2.50, 5.50, 2.20
Exacta: 130.10
CSF: 107.31
Tricast: 547.34
Trifecta: 784.60
Winning Jockey: T E Whelan
Winning Trainer: Harry Charlton
Distances: Neck, 1/2 length
Transparent 9/2 F
13 ran
Non Runners 4
16:40
1. 9 Bowerchalke 7/1
2. 10 Likealot 4/1F
3. 7 Quebella 9/2
Tote Win 8.00
Places 2.60, 1.80, 2.20
Exacta: 41.90
CSF: 35.22
Tricast: 142.42
Trifecta: 249.70
Winning Jockey: D Egan
Winning Trainer: Jane Chapple-Hyam
Distances: 1 3/4 length, 2 3/4 lengths
Likealot 4/1 F
11 ran
Non Runners 8
17:15
1. 1 Miss Justice 8/13F
2. 2 Lalique 13/2
Tote Win 1.62
Places 1.10, 2.20
Exacta: 4.00
CSF: 5.02
Trifecta: 5.70
Winning Jockey: R Havlin
Winning Trainer: J & T Gosden
Distances: 4 1/2 lengths
Miss Justice 8/13 F
6 ran
17:45
1. 1 The Pouncing Lion 5/6F
2. 5 Renato 13/2
Tote Win 1.84
Places 1.20, 2.30
Exacta: 7.40
CSF: 6.94
Trifecta: 14.30
Winning Jockey: Hector Crouch
Winning Trainer: M L W Bell
Distances: 3/4 length
The Pouncing Lion 5/6 F
5 ran
18:15
1. 4 Against The Wind 15/2
2. 10 Amestris 16/1
3. 8 Fluorescence 13/2
Tote Win 8.50
Places 2.50, 3.90, 2.60
Exacta: 136.20
CSF: 121.67
Tricast: 828.10
Trifecta: 868.00
Winning Jockey: T Eaves
Winning Trainer: K A Ryan
Distances: 2 3/4 lengths, Head
Mr Lightside 9/2 F
11 ran
18:45
1. 3 Dino Bellagio 11/1
2. 2 Spiced Rum 11/2
3. 5 Captain Potter 8/1
Tote Win 12.00
Places 3.10, 2.40, 3.40
Exacta: 85.70
CSF: 72.34
Tricast: 530.66
Trifecta: 1505.60
Winning Jockey: P Mulrennan
Winning Trainer: D McCain Jnr
Distances: 1/2 length, 6 1/2 lengths
Letmebetheboss 3/1 F
14 ran

Southwell Sausage & Cider Festival Raceday

Blog Post Content

Post Body

Southwell Sausage & Cider Raceday
Southwell Sausage & Cider Raceday
Π Southwell▸ Tapeta▸ Going▸ Standard
✅ Check the latest odds for Southwell
  • Southwell Results - 13 July 2025. Going: standard
    14:55
    1. 6 Perfect Location 9/2
    2. 9 Startled Lady 18/1
    3. 3 Elara May 7/2
    Tote Win 5.50
    Places 1.50, 4.70, 1.40
    Exacta: 92.00
    CSF: 81.71
    Trifecta: 426.10
    Winning Jockey: S M Levey
    Winning Trainer: T Ward
    Distances: Neck, 1 1/2 length
    Arduis Invicta 11/8 F
    9 ran
    15:30
    1. 2 Azleet 4/1
    2. 3 Bosom Pals 9/1
    3. 9 Sovereign Bright 13/8F
    Tote Win 5.00
    Places 1.30, 2.90, 1.30
    Exacta: 39.10
    CSF: 38.84
    Trifecta: 150.20
    Winning Jockey: Marco Ghiani
    Winning Trainer: S C Williams
    Distances: 5 lengths, 1 length
    Sovereign Bright 13/8 F
    11 ran
    16:05
    1. 5 Tremolo 13/2
    2. 8 Impartiality 16/1
    3. 7 Transparent 9/2F
    Tote Win 7.50
    Places 2.50, 5.50, 2.20
    Exacta: 130.10
    CSF: 107.31
    Tricast: 547.34
    Trifecta: 784.60
    Winning Jockey: T E Whelan
    Winning Trainer: Harry Charlton
    Distances: Neck, 1/2 length
    Transparent 9/2 F
    13 ran
    Non Runners 4
    16:40
    1. 9 Bowerchalke 7/1
    2. 10 Likealot 4/1F
    3. 7 Quebella 9/2
    Tote Win 8.00
    Places 2.60, 1.80, 2.20
    Exacta: 41.90
    CSF: 35.22
    Tricast: 142.42
    Trifecta: 249.70
    Winning Jockey: D Egan
    Winning Trainer: Jane Chapple-Hyam
    Distances: 1 3/4 length, 2 3/4 lengths
    Likealot 4/1 F
    11 ran
    Non Runners 8
    17:15
    1. 1 Miss Justice 8/13F
    2. 2 Lalique 13/2
    Tote Win 1.62
    Places 1.10, 2.20
    Exacta: 4.00
    CSF: 5.02
    Trifecta: 5.70
    Winning Jockey: R Havlin
    Winning Trainer: J & T Gosden
    Distances: 4 1/2 lengths
    Miss Justice 8/13 F
    6 ran
    17:45
    1. 1 The Pouncing Lion 5/6F
    2. 5 Renato 13/2
    Tote Win 1.84
    Places 1.20, 2.30
    Exacta: 7.40
    CSF: 6.94
    Trifecta: 14.30
    Winning Jockey: Hector Crouch
    Winning Trainer: M L W Bell
    Distances: 3/4 length
    The Pouncing Lion 5/6 F
    5 ran
    18:15
    1. 4 Against The Wind 15/2
    2. 10 Amestris 16/1
    3. 8 Fluorescence 13/2
    Tote Win 8.50
    Places 2.50, 3.90, 2.60
    Exacta: 136.20
    CSF: 121.67
    Tricast: 828.10
    Trifecta: 868.00
    Winning Jockey: T Eaves
    Winning Trainer: K A Ryan
    Distances: 2 3/4 lengths, Head
    Mr Lightside 9/2 F
    11 ran
    18:45
    1. 3 Dino Bellagio 11/1
    2. 2 Spiced Rum 11/2
    3. 5 Captain Potter 8/1
    Tote Win 12.00
    Places 3.10, 2.40, 3.40
    Exacta: 85.70
    CSF: 72.34
    Tricast: 530.66
    Trifecta: 1505.60
    Winning Jockey: P Mulrennan
    Winning Trainer: D McCain Jnr
    Distances: 1/2 length, 6 1/2 lengths
    Letmebetheboss 3/1 F
    14 ran

Overpriced UK Horse Watch (Sun Jul 13 2025)

Blog Post Content

Post Body

Potentially Overpriced UK Horses Watch

Caricature of a punter studying the odds

On The Hunt For Potentially Overpriced UK Horses

❏ Uber large price horses I am keeping an eye on regarding the betting market. For various reasons, I think they are potentially overpriced odds runners.

❏ It will be interesting to me atleast, to keep a close watch on how these big priced runners do, re the market and how they run.

⚠ Potential Overpriced Horse ⚠

❏ I won't bore anyone with how spotting the potentially overpriced horse sausage is made.

❏ Just let's keep an eye on them.

❖ It's with these kind of horses, that multibet players might just pull off the big one, one day.

⍣ Click ⍣ 2 Uber Bets Landed For Punters This Weekend 💰

    Potentially Overpriced Uber Price Horses

    Perth NH Jumps▼
  • 2:33 Champ De Gane 12/1 (Unp 14/1)
  • 3:08 ♥ Invictus World 20/1 (Won 17/2 from 20's)
    • Stratford NH Jumps▼
  • 2:07 Fox Wallace 12/1 (4th 10/1)
  • 2:42 Asian Star 12/1 (Unp 14/1)
⍣ Click ⍣ To Go To Oddschecker To Keep An Eye On The Prices 🔍 ⍣ Click ⍣ To Go To At The Races To Check On The Market Movers 🔍

Labels:

Overpriced UK Horse Watch (Sat Jul 12 2025)

Blog Post Content

Post Body

Potentially Overpriced UK Horses Watch

Caricature of a punter studying the odds

On The Hunt For Potentially Overpriced UK Horses

❏ Uber large price horses I am keeping an eye on regarding the betting market. For various reasons, I think they are potentially overpriced odds runners.

❏ It will be interesting to me atleast, to keep a close watch on how these big priced runners do, re the market and how they run.

⚠ Potential Overpriced Horse ⚠

❏ I won't bore anyone with how spotting the potentially overpriced horse sausage is made.

❏ Just let's keep an eye on them.

❖ It's with these kind of horses, that multibet players might just pull off the big one, one day.

⍣ Click ⍣ 2 Uber Bets Landed For Punters This Weekend 💰

    Potentially Overpriced Uber Price Horses

    Ascot Turf Flat▼
  • 2:57 La Pulga 16/1 (3rd 18/1)
  • 4:10 Enemy 28/1 (Unp 33/1)
  • 4:50 ♥ Alzahir 12/1 (Won 20/1)
  • 5:20 Billy Mill 16/1 (Unp 16/1)
    • York Turf Flat▼
  • 2:00 Flight Plan 16/1 (Unp 18/1)
  • 3:10 Ancient Rome 28/1 (Unp 28/1)
  • 4:45 Churchella 25/1 (Unp 22/1)
  • 5:25 Manila Scouse 25/1 (Unp 25/1)
    • Chester Turf Flat▼
  • 4:55 Never Dark 18/1 (Unp 16/1)

    • Hamilton Turf Flat▼
  • 7:30 Tafsir 16/1 (3rd 18/1)
  • 8:30 ♥ Ayr Poet 12/1 (1st 9/1)
  • 9:00 Cougar 18/1 (Unp 14/1)
⍣ Click ⍣ To Go To Oddschecker To Keep An Eye On The Prices 🔍 ⍣ Click ⍣ To Go To At The Races To Check On The Market Movers 🔍

Labels:

July Cup - Sat Jul 12 2025

Blog Post Content

Post Body

Al Basti Equiworld ~ Dubai July Cup Stakes (Group 1) 2025

16:35 Newmarket | Group 1 (Class 1)

15 Runners | Distance▸ 6f | Going▸ Good to Firm | Surface▸ Turf

£657,000 added | Winner▸ £372,585 | 2nd▸ £141,255 | 3rd▸ £70,693 | 4th▸ £35,215

1 (12) Inisherin

21 | p | D | Form▸ 1150-17

Age▸ 4 | Weight▸ 9-8 | Official Rating▸ 116

Trainer▸ K A Ryan | Jockey▸ T Eaves

2 (6) Jasour

21 | ht | D | CD | Form▸ 600-606

Age▸ 4 | Weight▸ 9-8 | Official Rating▸ 106

Trainer▸ C G Cox | Jockey▸ Saffie Osborne

3 (1) Night Raider (IRE)

25 | D | Form▸ 0511-30

Age▸ 4 | Weight▸ 9-8 | Official Rating▸ 105

Trainer▸ K R Burke | Jockey▸ S H James

4 (4) Notable Speech

25 | Form▸ 7153-44

Age▸ 4 | Weight▸ 9-8 | Official Rating▸ 118

Trainer▸ C Appleby | Jockey▸ W Buick

5 (10) Rogue Lightning (IRE)

70 | p | D | CD | Form▸ 738-128

Age▸ 5 | Weight▸ 9-8 | Official Rating▸ 110

Trainer▸ Tom Clover | Jockey▸ R Kingscote

6 (13) Run To Freedom

21 | C | D | Form▸ 205/0-48

Age▸ 7 | Weight▸ 9-8 | Official Rating▸ 105

Trainer▸ H Candy | Jockey▸ T E Whelan

7 (3) Twilight Calls

21 | C | D | Form▸ 54-5900

Age▸ 7 | Weight▸ 9-8 | Official Rating▸ 97

Trainer▸ R Spencer | Jockey▸ George Wood

8 (11) Believing (IRE)

25 | t | BF | D | Form▸ 3223-10

Age▸ 5 | Weight▸ 9-5 | Official Rating▸ 112

Trainer▸ G Boughey | Jockey▸ Billy Loughnane

9 (5) Flora Of Bermuda (IRE)

21 | D | Form▸ 1453-23

Age▸ 4 | Weight▸ 9-5 | Official Rating▸ 112

Trainer▸ A M Balding | Jockey▸ James Doyle

10 (15) No Half Measures

42 | C | D | Form▸ 1615-92

Age▸ 4 | Weight▸ 9-5 | Official Rating▸ 105

Trainer▸ R Hughes | Jockey▸ N Callan

11 (9) Big Mojo (IRE)

22 | D | Form▸ 424-147

Age▸ 3 | Weight▸ 9-2 | Official Rating▸ 108

Trainer▸ M Appleby | Jockey▸ Tom Marquand

12 (7) Ides Of March (IRE)

22 | D | Form▸ 117-220

Age▸ 3 | Weight▸ 9-2 | Official Rating▸ 105

Trainer▸ A P O'Brien | Jockey▸ W M Lordan

13 (14) Spy Chief

21 | D | Form▸ 6212

Age▸ 3 | Weight▸ 9-2 | Official Rating▸ 106

Trainer▸ J & T Gosden | Jockey▸ R Havlin

14 (8) Symbol Of Honour

49 | D | Form▸ 4-11611

Age▸ 3 | Weight▸ 9-2 | Official Rating▸ 110

Trainer▸ C Appleby | Jockey▸ Oisin Murphy

15 (2) Whistlejacket (IRE)

22 | D | CD | Form▸ 125-126

Age▸ 3 | Weight▸ 9-2 | Official Rating▸ 110

Trainer▸ A P O'Brien | Jockey▸ R L Moore

Betting Odds

Notable Speech▸ 11/4
Whistlejacket▸ 13/2
Flora Of Bermuda▸ 7/1
Symbol Of Honour▸ 15/2
Believing▸ 17/2
Inisherin▸ 11/1
Big Mojo▸ 18/1
Spy Chief▸ 22/1
Jasour▸ 28/1
Ides Of March▸ 33/1
Night Raider▸ 33/1
No Half Measures▸ 50/1
Rogue Lightning▸ 50/1
Run To Freedom▸ 66/1
Twilight Calls▸ 150/1
Stay Up To Date With The Latest Newmarket Odds

Al Basti Equiworld ~ Dubai July Cup Stakes 2025 Analysis

The July Cup, one of the premier Group 1 sprint contests at Newmarket over 6 furlongs, pits top-class sprinters against each other, blending proven Group 1 performers with emerging talents. This year’s renewal features 2000 Guineas winner Notable Speech dropping to sprint distance, Commonwealth Cup contender Whistlejacket, consistent filly Flora Of Bermuda, and York winner Inisherin. With speed and tactical nous at a premium, this is a wide-open race.

Race Overview

  • Distance▸ 6 furlongs
  • Surface▸ Turf (Good to Firm)
  • Field▸ 15 runners
  • Prize▸ £657,000

Historical Trends and Weight Factor

The July Cup often favours horses with proven sprinting form at Group 1 level, with tactical speed and a good draw crucial on Newmarket’s straight course. Three-year-olds receive a 6lb weight allowance, giving them an edge, as seen in 4 of the last 10 editions won by younger horses. Recent form at Royal Ascot, particularly in the Commonwealth Cup or Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes, is a strong indicator.

Key Contenders

Horse Draw Odds Recent Form Expert Mentions
Notable Speech 4 11/4 4th in Queen Anne (G1) Timeform and oddschecker pick, Buick retained
Whistlejacket 2 13/2 6th in Commonwealth Cup (G1) Timeform top pick, Pricewise 25/1 ante post, Moore retained
Flora Of Bermuda 5 7/1 3rd in QEII Jubilee (G1) Racing Post nap, consistent performer
Symbol Of Honour 8 15/2 1st in Sandy Lane (G2) Impressive 6f record, oddschecker mention
Believing 11 17/2 11th in King Charles III (G1) Group 1 winner, excuses at Ascot
Inisherin 12 11/1 7th in QEII Jubilee (G1) oddschecker pick, cheekpieces applied

Expert Predictions

  • Timeform▸ Whistlejacket (1st), Notable Speech (2nd), Flora Of Bermuda (3rd) ~ Read 📰
  • Racing Post▸ Flora Of Bermuda to land the spoils ~ Read 📰
  • Oddschecker▸ Inisherin to bounce back, Notable Speech and Symbol Of Honour respected ~ Read 📰
  • Notebook Angle▸ Notable Speech’s class and drop to 6f could unlock potential

Additional Factors

  • Notable Speech drops to 6f for the first time, a bold move given his Group 1 mile form
  • Whistlejacket was unlucky in the Commonwealth Cup, suggesting untapped potential
  • Flora Of Bermuda’s consistency at this level makes her a threat, especially with a good draw
  • Inisherin’s cheekpieces could sharpen him up after a lackluster Ascot run
  • Symbol Of Honour’s 5-6 record at 6f is notable, but Buick prefers Notable Speech

Final Recommendation ~ Notable Speech 11/4 ~ Win Only ✅

While Whistlejacket has strong claims with his 6f pedigree and Ryan Moore’s support, Notable Speech stands out as the best bet at 11/4 after drifting from as short as 2/1. His proven Group 1 class over a mile, combined with William Buick’s confidence and a favourable draw (4), suggests he can adapt to the drop in trip. Flora Of Bermuda is a consistent danger, and Inisherin could rebound, but Notable Speech’s quality edges him ahead.

Labels: