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Kempton Draw Bias & Track Stats

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Kempton AW Draw Bias & Track Details

❖ Cracking The Kempton AW Code

Kempton Draw Bias

Beginners Question ➔ What is the Draw Bias?
Answer ➔ A Stall Position that gives your horse a Noticable Advantage over other horses.


5 Furlongs, 6 Furlongs
LOW I personally prefer to follow horses drawn low, ie the lowest 5 runners. You even have an inside cutaway that appears about 1.5f out. From there you need a horse that can get home, because the outside runners try the slingshot approach off the last bend and come at you with a hard rattle.

5f ▪ 6f ▪ DRAW ADVISORY ❖ Low Bias ~ 1-5. The inside line to the 1st bend is very helpful, as you save ground round the bend, the nearer the rail you are.


7 Furlongs, 8 Furlongs
LOW In my personal experience, horses drawn low, ie the lowest 5 runners, arguably have an advantage. That inside cutaway means even if you're two or 3 back on the inside, there'll be enough room for a late run.

7f ▪ 8f ▪ DRAW ADVISORY ❖ Low Bias ~ 1-5. The shortest way around the whole way around, comes in very handy over the specialist 7f sprint distance and the mile.


9 Furlongs & Above
NONE Little in the way of a draw bias from what I have noticed watching 1mile+ races on the Kempton all weather surface to date. Over a mile you get a chance to work your way into the race wherever you're drawn, if you're on something good enough.

9f ▪ 10f+ ▪ DRAW ADVISORY ❖ No Draw Bias. If you back something that has some kind of reason to be able to win a race here, an outside draw over 9f+ will rarely stop you collecting.


All Distances

BETTING ADVICE ❖ I'm always looking for a low draw (1~5) here. Yes I get done by a few wide horses coming home like a Porsche, but not often. I think it's better to be drawn on the inside and stay there. The cutaway a furlong out means it's not easy to get boxed in at Kempton either.

#Pro note▸ David Probert has written there's even an inside positional draw bias over a mile and a quarter, due to the inner loop/outer loop track layout. He is an especially tuned in jockey though. I doubt many jockeys even know what he means. If you stay "low draw" for your bets for the most part, you won't have to either..

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Why Learn About Any Draw Bias▸ Track Layout▸ Course Foibles?

To Make Money▸ Simple As That▸ So when you put your money down to bet, I think you should know as much about the event as possible. Possible draw bias on a racetrack, over a particular distance, is crucial information.

Priced Up Already▸ Yes, the price of a horse, should have any potential draw bias or pace based race position advantages, baked into it already. So, why bother learn all this stuff? Good question. The answer is simple▸ There are enough punters (the majority) ~ without course specific knowledge, putting thier money down and affecting the prices of all horses in the race, to give YOU wriggle room. You do the maths.

Track Knowledge▸ Knowing the track layout, any draw biases, quirks of the course, doesn't mean you'll get the winner in every race. It will make you a bigger danger to the bookies though. It can only help you in your pursuit of winning some money.

Shifts In Draw Biases▸ Some racetracks have changable draw biases. The weather can affect where the best place on the track for a horse to race on is. Changing of the stalls position can effect where it's best to be drawn. Just watching the races and early results at a meeting can inform you of where an advantage may be. Stalls positioning and draw biases might change on any given day. Keep your eyes peeled ladies.

Watch & Learn▸ Read what you can, remember it, or write it down. Listen to everything you can about an event. You won't get confused. You'll use what you see, hear, and learn to your advantage. Watch what you can, note down what is noteworthy. With that in mind, I'll put what I find interesting, useful, or amusing about Kempton races in the video box below.

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Kempton All Weather Racetrack Video Collection Point


Close Up Look At The Kempton's Stalls Positioning & Race Start (0m:24s)

A quick, but quite interesting look at the Kempton stalls, positioning and the start of a race.

Notice the inside line the horses run on, if they can get it.


Take The Official Tour Of Kempton's Racecourse (4m:06s)

Take a nosey around the Kempton Park amenities. Don't forget, they don't just do AWR, they run the 3mile King George VI Chase on boxing day over the jumps.

That means the Royals turn up. They have a Royal Box and the Desert Orchid suite. Very posh.

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Kempton All Weather Racetrack Stats (Polytrack)

Jockey Runs To Wins Statistics @ Kempton▾

Trainer Runs To Wins Statistics @ Kempton▾


Kempton Course Guides & Statistical Analysis▾

I will list the Kempton course guides and stats centres here, in alphabetical order. The trainer and jockey statistical analysis you need, is most certainly achievable via these pages. They all have specific trainer and jockey stats grouped together, or linked up on the same page, in various formats.

Jockey stats and trainer stats in thier own locations are preferable ~ but some sites group them together ~ so you'll have to find them on these pages. All the data you need is available via these racing publications, if you are interested.

#sandracer note: These are hand~picked sources, by me. They are listed for a reason. This ain't a list of vaguely related Kemp pages ~ this is a must see and use set of resources to use in conjunction with your draw bias and track knowledge.

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Official Kempton AW Polytrack Course Details▾

  • The racetrack is right handed, runs anti~clockwise and has a bend radius of 137m.
  • The 16metre wide bends are designed to accommodate 17 runners from 7f and above.
  • 5f and 6f races, due to safety factors, fields will be reduced to 14 runners.
  • The outer track is a ten furlong (2,000m) oval ~ this track will host 6f, 7f, 1m, 1m 3f, 1m 4f and 2m races.
  • The inner track is an eight furlong (1,612m) oval ~ this will allow for 5f and 1m 2f races.
  • Kempton uses the same Polytrack surface as Lingfield.
  • The finish is 20m wide down the home straight, with a cutaway right sided chute appearing around the furlong marker.

History Of Kempton Racecourse

Early History▾

Kempton Park Racecourse was established in 1878 by one S.H. Hyde (no image or bio), who leased the land from the estate of William Kemp (no image or bio), after whom the racecourse is named. The first race meeting was held in July of that year. The site itself had historical significance, having been part of Kempton Manor and Park ~ recorded in the Domesday Book of 1086. The racecourse quickly gained popularity due to its proximity to London and convenient rail access via its own station, which opened in the late 19th century.

Modern Transformation▾

Kempton has seen big changes over the years, most notably in the 20th and 21st centuries. During World War I, racing was suspended and the venue was repurposed as a military vehicle depot. [ 1 ] [ 2 ]

In 1932, a large grandstand was constructed to meet rising attendance and solidified Kempton’s growing importance in the British racing circuit.

The biggest change came in 2006, when the traditional flat turf track was replaced with an all-weather polytrack surface. This enabled year round, floodlit racing and made Kempton one of the UK's first all weather venues.

The jumps (National Hunt) course remains active and is still used for high~profile races, maintaining Kempton’s top NH & AWR status.

Key features include▸

  • One of the first UK tracks to adopt all-weather polytrack racing (2006)
  • Dual purpose venue▸ flat racing on polytrack and National Hunt jumps course
  • Direct access via Kempton Park Railway Station

Notable Moments▾

The most iconic race at Kempton is the King George VI Chase, inaugurated in 1937 and held every Boxing Day. It is one of the most prestigious steeplechases in the UK, second only to the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Over the decades, racing legends such as Desert Orchid and Kauto Star forged their legacies in the minds of us racing oldies on Kempton’s turf. Kempton has also been featured in British cinema and various television programmes, due to its location near London and visually appealing sprawling landscape.

Community & Legacy▾

Kempton Park has played a central role in the British racing scene for nearly 150 years. Its transition into a modern racing venue reflects both the evolution of the sport and a dedication to preserving its heritage. It remains a favourite among racing enthusiasts, both traditionalists and AW fans alike. Kempton continues to host major fixtures and community events throughout the year.

In 2023, the racecourse marked 20 years since the beginning of its major modern transformation in 2003, celebrating its role as one of the UK’s premier venues for both jumps and all weather flat racing.

  • 1878 ~ First race held at Kempton Park
  • 1937 ~ King George VI Chase inaugurated
  • 2006 ~ All-weather track installed▸ flat turf racing ceased
  • 2023 ~ 20th anniversary of the modernisation era

Summary Evaluation▾

Kempton Park Racecourse represents a successful mix of pomp, tradition and working class race nights out. From its origins in the Victorian era to its modern day importance as a dual-surface venue, it has continually adapted while maintaining a strong identity within British racing. I think the Royals rocking up every year and being just down the motorway from London has helped in that cause no doubt. Its historic and cultural importance, highlighted by the King George VI Chase and its early all weather foray into the unknown, ensure its ongoing relevance in UK sport in general.

Kempton Racecourse Data▾

  • Established▸ 1878
  • Track Surface▸ Polytrack (flat)▸ Turf (jumps)
  • Floodlights▸ Installed in 2006▸ (full circuit, evening racing)
  • Parking Capacity▸ Approx. 1,500~2,000 cars (free)
  • Licensed Bookmaker Pitches▸ 50~60 on-site per major meeting
  • Attendance▸ ~120,000~150,000 annually up to 12,000 on major racedays
  • Maximum Capacity▸ ~20,000 spectators (licensed)
  • Track Length▸ Flat▸ 8 furlongs (1 mile) Jumps▸ extended right-handed circuit
  • Owned By▸ The Jockey Club
  • Nearest Train Station▸ Kempton Park Station (onsite▸ direct from London Waterloo)
  • Nearest Airport▸ Heathrow Airport (approx. 9 miles / 20 mins drive)
  • Bus Routes▸ 216, 235, 290 (via Sunbury Cross)
  • Distance from London▸ ~16 miles (25.5 km)▸ approx. 45~60 minutes by car
  • Desert Orchid Suite▸ Premium Viewing Suite named after the legendary white steeplechaser Dessie
  • The Royal Box▸ The Royal Box▸ Private hospitality box for dignitaries & VIPs
  • Dining & Hospitality▸ Panoramic Restaurant▸ multiple bars▸ Private Boxes▸ top notch grub
  • Coordinates▾
    Kempton Racecourse Geo Location
    Kempton Racecourse Google Map

Kempton Park Racetrack Contact Details

Kempton Park Racecourse
Kempton Park Racecourse
Staines Road East
Sunbury on Thames
Middlesex TW16 5AQ

☎ 01932 782292
✉ Events.Kempton@thejockeyclub.co.uk

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#page description: the aim of this page is to provide punters with a beginners guide the Kempton AW track drawn bias and other related betting details punters will need to crack the Kempton AW code.

#blog post word count: 2,145

#page last update: Mon July 14 2025



Related Page: Cracking The All Weather Racing Code ➔

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Kempton All~Weather Racetrack▸ Draw Bias Analysis

Kempton is generally considered fair due to a cutaway in the straight, reducing hard~luck stories, but specific distances show notable draw biases, particularly in sprint races.

Data Sources and Timeframe
The most recent comprehensive analysis comes from sources like Geegeez.co.uk ~ covering data up to December 2024, with some references extending back to 2017 for robust sample sizes. Other sources, such as FlatStats.co.uk and HorseRacingExperts.co.uk ~ provide insights up to February 2025 and historical trends. I’ve prioritized data from 2017–2024 for relevance, focusing on handicaps with 8+ runners, as these provide the most reliable draw bias indicators.

Draw Bias by Distance
1. ▪ 5 Furlongs (Inner Loop) ▪
▪ Bias ▪ Strong bias toward low~drawn horses (stalls 1–5). The tight inner loop and short run~in (approximately 2 furlongs) heavily favour front~runners drawn low, as they can break quickly and hold the rail. High~drawn runners struggle due to the sharp bend and limited time to recover.

Stats
~ Low draws (stalls 1–5) have a significant edge, with historical data showing a 9–21% win strike rate across stalls 1–5 in races with 1–7 runners, compared to higher stalls.
~ Only three 5f handicaps with 8+ runners occurred in the last three years, won by horses drawn 1, 1, and 2, reinforcing the low~draw advantage.
~ Percentage of Rivals Beaten () for low draws is higher (e.g., 0.57 vs. 0.42 for high draws).

Notes ▪ 5f races are rare at Kempton, reducing the sample size, but the bias is pronounced when they occur. Front~running low~drawn horses are particularly profitable.

2. ▪ 6 Furlongs (Outer Loop) ▪
▪ Bias ▪ Kempton’s 6f distance exhibits one of the strongest and most consistent draw biases on the all~weather circuit, favouring low draws (stalls 1–5). This is the 6th strongest draw bias in the UK/Ireland for this distance.

Stats
~ From 2017–2024, low draws won 46.5% of 8+ runner handicaps (400 races), with a of 0.57 compared to 0.42 for high draws. Backing horses drawn 3 or 4 yielded a 10p/£ profit to Betfair Starting Price (BSP).
~ In races with 11–12 runners (max field size 12), low draws won 52.2% of races, with a of 0.59 vs. 0.41 for high draws.

Run Style Interaction ▪ Front~runners have a massive edge at 6f, especially low~drawn ones. A heat map for 6f handicaps shows low~drawn front~runners dominate, while hold~up horses from low draws fare poorly.

Notes ▪ The low~draw bias is consistent. Markets may adjust prices, so value lies in identifying low~drawn front~runners early.

3. ▪ 7 Furlongs (Outer Loop) ▪
Bias ▪ A moderate low~draw bias exists, less pronounced than at 6f. Low draws (stalls 1–5) still outperform middle and high draws.

Blogger Sandracer @ 8:52 am, July 18, 2025  

▪ Stats ▪
~ Low draws have a slight edge in win percentages, but the bias is not as strong as at shorter distances. Stall 1 and 2 account for about a third of winners in 8+ runner handicaps.
~ Front~runners remain advantageous, though the bias evens out compared to 5f and 6f.

Notes ▪ The longer run~in (2.5 furlongs) on the outer loop allows more time for horses to recover, reducing the bias. Focus on low~drawn front~runners.

4. ▪ 1 Mile and Above (Outer Loop, except 1m2f on Inner Loop) ▪
▪ Bias ▪ Minimal to no significant draw bias. The longer distances and extended run~in on the outer loop create a fairer track, with no consistent advantage to low, middle, or high draws.

Stats
~ For 1m, 1m3f, 1m4f, and 2m, win percentages across draw thirds are roughly equal, with no notable differences.
~ At 1m2f (inner loop), data is limited (only 16 qualifying races since 2016), but front~runners show a slight edge, possibly due to the tighter course.

Notes ▪ Pace bias (favouring front~runners) is more relevant than draw bias at these distances. Hold~up horses struggle, especially at 1m2f.

Pace/Run Style Bias
5f and 6f ▪ Front~runners dominate, particularly when drawn low. At 6f, front~running favourites have a strong record, with a 22% win strike rate from 2016–2018, though this dropped to ~15% in 2019–2021, possibly due to market adjustments or track changes.

7f ▪ Front~runners still hold an edge, but mid~pack runners perform better than at shorter distances.

1m and above ▪ Pace bias evens out, but front~runners remain preferable to hold~up horses, especially at 1m2f.

Factors Influencing Draw Bias
Track Maintenance ▪ Kempton’s Polytrack was relaid in 2012, initially reducing draw bias, but a low~draw bias has since emerged, particularly for sprints. No major resurfacing has been reported since, suggesting consistency in recent trends.

Weather ▪ All~weather surfaces are less affected by weather, but heavy rain can compact Polytrack, potentially enhancing low~draw biases.

Stall Positioning ▪ Since August 2011, low~numbered stalls are placed closest to the inside rail, reinforcing the low~draw advantage on this right~handed track.

Field Size ▪ Bias is stronger in larger fields (11–12 runners), as low~drawn horses can secure better positions early.

Blogger Sandracer @ 8:54 am, July 18, 2025  

Practical Betting Insights
5f ▪ Back low~drawn (stalls 1–5) front~runners in handicaps, but note the rarity of these races. Check recent form for horses that break quickly.

6f ▪ Focus on low~drawn (stalls 1–5) front~runners in 8+ runner handicaps. Use tools like Geegeez’s Draw Analyser or heat maps to identify value. Avoid high~drawn hold~up horses.

7f ▪ Consider low~drawn front~runners but be cautious, as the bias is weaker. Look for value in early prices or Betfair SP.

1m+ ▪ Prioritize pace (front~runners) over draw. Check trainer and jockey stats for horses likely to lead.

Negative Draw Bias ▪ Horses running well last time out from high draws (e.g., stalls 7+ in 12~runner races) at Chelmsford or Wolverhampton could be worth considering if entered at Kempton, as they may have overcome a disadvantage.

Trainer Stats ▪ For winter all~weather racing (Dec–Feb), trainers like D E Cantillon (43% strike rate) and Saeed bin Suroor (36%) perform well at Kempton.

Cautions and Considerations
~ Historical data (e.g., high~draw bias in 2006–2009) may not reflect current conditions due to track changes or stall repositioning. Always verify with recent results.
~ Draw biases can shift due to unrecorded track work or temporary conditions (e.g., harrowing or weather). Monitor early races on a card for real~time insights.
~ Markets are increasingly aware of Kempton’s 6f low~draw bias, potentially reducing value. Look for mispriced low~drawn runners in less obvious races.
~ Sample sizes for 5f and 1m2f are small, so exercise caution when betting based on these trends.


Conclusion
Kempton’s all~weather track shows a strong low~draw bias for 5f and 6f handicaps, particularly for front~runners, with the 6f bias being one of the most consistent in UK racing. The bias weakens at 7f and is negligible at 1m and above, where pace bias becomes more critical. Bettors should focus on low~drawn front~runners in sprint handicaps and monitor trainer performance in winter months. Always check recent race results or track conditions, as biases can shift unexpectedly.

Blogger Sandracer @ 8:55 am, July 18, 2025  

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