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Trump V Harris - Potus Election Night UK Odds

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❑ 2024 Potus Betting Update: Reported $85M Winner On Trump Via Exchange Markets

A French trader, known by the pseudonym "Theo" ~ reportedly amassed approximately $85 million by betting on Donald Trumps victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election through the crypto-based prediction platform Polymarket.


❖ Who is Theo?

Theo is a French national with a background in banking and trading. He allegedly managed multiple Polymarket accounts ~ such as Fredi9999 ~ Theo4 ~ PrincessCaro ~ Michie ~ to place substantial bets on Trumps success.

His strategy involved using an unconventional polling method known as the "neighbour method" ~ which assesses voter preferences based on their neighbours rather than direct questioning by pollsters via arguably anti Trump broadcasters like CNN. This approach aimed to account for the "shy Trump voter effect," where individuals might be reluctant to disclose their true voting intentions.


❖ Betting Strategy and Market Impact

Theos significant wagers, totaling over $70 million, were placed on Trumps anticipated victories in key battleground states and even the popular vote.

These large bets influenced the odds on Polymarket, at times causing Trump's chances to spike to 99% due to the platform's order book mechanics. Despite concerns about potential market manipulation ~ Polymarket's internal investigations found no evidence of such activities.


❖ Regulatory Scrutiny

The mind boggling magnitude of Theo's bets has attracted attention from regulatory bodies. In France, the National Gaming Authority (ANJ) is investigating the legality of such large scale betting activities on platforms like Polymarket.


❖ Broader Political Betting Landscape

The 2024 U.S. presidential election saw unprecedented activity on betting platforms. Polymarket reported a total betting volume of over $3.3 billion, surpassing the combined fundraising totals of both presidential campaigns. Additionally ~ the Betfair Exchange in the UK matched over £300 million in bets related to the election.

Theo's substantial win exemplifies the growing influence of prediction markets and the significant financial stakes involved in political betting.

❑ Up Way Too Late Watching The American Election Results Come In?

I am up watching the American election results like as if it's important. It's US Reality TV to me, has been since Trump decided to run for Potus. Entertaining for sure, it definitely beats Big Brother or Love Island. It doesn't beat Celebrity Get Me Outta Here and Britain's Got Talent though, just so you know..

Listening to the likes of James O'Brien's leftwaffe propaganda on LBC, playing up the "Trump is a fascist" line from his bully pulpit, even though the Don started no wars and stepped into North Korea without an army for example, makes for some light entertainment during breakfast.

Kamala seems nice and fluffy, when she's not jailing stoners that is. Not really your traditional presidential material to be honest, but then neither is Trump. Old Donald couldn't believe his luck when she got the Dem's nomination. They should have put up Shifty Schiff. He's nearly as slippery as the Trumpster...

Current USA Election Betting Position In The UK:
The odds on a Donald Trump victory are shortening as the first of the Potus results come in. Trump has shortened a bit to 1/2 1/3, Kamala is out to 2/1 5/2. The election results will swing and drift, back and forth, I presume the market will too, or maybe not.

I wouldn't like to bet on who is going to win. Cheers, Sandracer

UK Bookies Odds For USA President 2024


Donald Trump 👱🏽‍♂️ | 4/9 1/3 N/O Bet365 | 2/5 2/7 N/O Betfair | 4/9 1/3 1/200 Billhill | 4/9 1/3 N/O Coral | 4/9 1/3 Ladbrokes 1/500 | 4/9 1/3 N/O Paddy |
Kamala Harris 👩🏾‍⚖ | 7/4 5/2 N/O Bet365 | 2/1 5/2 80/1 Betfair | 7/4 23/10 25/1 Billhill | 15/8 5/2 N/O Coral | 15/8 5/2 50/1 Ladbrokes | 7/4 5/2 80/1 Paddy |

Price Updates: (1.50am) (3.10am) (6.51am)


Betfair Exchange Odds For USA President 2024


💰 Total Amount Staked On The Betfair UK Market:
£219,312,170 (1.50am) £232,134,324 (3.10am) £250,015,191 (6.51am)

💰 Total Amount Staked Per Candidate ↙
Donald Trump 👱🏽‍♂️: £151,618,645.58 £161,925,352.34 Current Odds: 1/2 1/4 1/5f No Offers
Kamala Harris 👩🏾‍⚖: £54,188,789.46 £56,418,671.39 Current Odds: 2/1 7/2 4/1 9/2 200/1
Joe Biden 👨‍🦳: £8,132,620.23 Current Odds: 1000/1


Related Post: Joe Biden Punters Lost £8m On A Non Runner

#Last Page Update: Sat May 24, 2025

4 Comentario 💬


Potus Election Night Odds On The Outsider

If you fancy wasting some dough backing an outsider, you can still bet on the exchanges:

♂️ JD Vance - 1000/1
♀️ Michelle Obama - 1000/1
♀️ Hillary Clinton - 1000/1
♂️ Joe Biden - 1000/1
♂️ Mike Pence - 1000/1
♂️ Tom Cotton - 1000/1
♂️ Donald Trump Jr. - 1000/1
♂️ Ted Cruz - 1000/1
♀️ Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez - 1000/1
♂️ Tucker Carlson - 1000/1
♂️ Bernie Sanders - 1000/1
♀️ Ivanka Trump - 1000/1
♂️ Beto O'Rourke - 1000/1
♂️ Pete Buttigieg - 1000/1
♂️ Paul Ryan - 1000/1
♀️ Candace Owens - 1000/1
♀️ Rashida Tlaib - 1000/1
♂️ Chris Christie - 1000/1
♀️ Ayanna Pressley - 1000/1
♂️ Mike Pompeo - 1000/1
♂️ Josh Hawley - 1000/1
♂️ Dan Crenshaw - 1000/1
♀️ Nina Turner - 1000/1
♂️ Gavin Newsom - 1000/1
♂️ Andrew Cuomo - 1000/1
♂️ Marco Rubio - 1000/1
♀️ Elizabeth Warren - 1000/1
♀️ Nikki Haley - 1000/1
♂️ Eric Holder - 1000/1
♀️ Oprah Winfrey - 1000/1
♂️ Deval Patrick - 1000/1
♀️ Tulsi Gabbard - 1000/1
♂️ Eric Swalwell - 1000/1
♂️ Eric Garcetti - 1000/1
♂️ Jay Inslee - 1000/1
♂️ Cory Booker - 1000/1
♂️ Julian Castro - 1000/1
♂️ Michael Bloomberg - 1000/1
♂️ Jeb Bush - 1000/1
♂️ Mitch McConnell - 1000/1
♂️ Mitt Romney - 1000/1
♂️ Lindsey Graham - 1000/1
♂️ Rand Paul - 1000/1
♀️ Jo Jorgensen - 1000/1
♂️ Dwayne Johnson - 1000/1
♂️ Andrew Yang - 1000/1
♂️ John Kasich - 1000/1
♀️ Karen Bass - 1000/1
♀️ Susan Collins - 1000/1
♂️ Ben Carson - 1000/1
♀️ Kristi Noem - 1000/1
♂️ Rick Scott - 1000/1
♂️ Ron DeSantis - 1000/1
♀️ Sarah Huckabee Sanders - 1000/1
♂️ Rob Portman - 1000/1
♂️ Matt Gaetz - 1000/1
♀️ Condoleezza Rice - 1000/1
♀️ Meghan Markle - 1000/1
♂️ Al Gore - 1000/1
♂️ John Kerry - 1000/1
♂️ Caitlyn Jenner - 1000/1
♀️ Liz Cheney - 1000/1
♂️ Jon Tester - 1000/1
♂️ Sherrod Brown - 1000/1
♂️ Joe Manchin - 1000/1
♂️ Ron Johnson - 1000/1
♂️ Christopher Sununu - 1000/1
♂️ Greg Abbott - 1000/1
♂️ Glenn Youngkin - 1000/1
♀️ Amy Klobuchar - 1000/1
♀️ Susan Rice - 1000/1
♂️ Eric Adams - 1000/1
♂️ Tim Ryan - 1000/1
♂️ Herschel Walker - 1000/1
♂️ John Fetterman - 1000/1
♂️ Josh Mandel - 1000/1
♀️ Winsome Sears - 1000/1
♂️ Kevin McCarthy - 1000/1
♂️ Martin Heinrich - 1000/1
♂️ Mitch Landrieu - 1000/1
♂️ Jared Polis - 1000/1
♂️ Mark Cuban - 1000/1
♂️ Ben Sasse - 1000/1
♂️ Tim Scott - 1000/1
♂️ Larry Hogan - 1000/1
♀️ Cori Bush - 1000/1
♂️ Jason Kander - 1000/1
♂️ Dan Pfeiffer - 1000/1
♂️ Tim Walz - 1000/1
♀️ Gretchen Whitmer - 1000/1
♂️ Tony Evers - 1000/1
♂️ Gary Peters - 1000/1
♂️ Charles Ernest Grassley - 1000/1
♂️ Jamie Raskin - 1000/1
♀️ Kari Lake - 1000/1
♂️ Mark Kelly - 1000/1
♂️ Blake Masters - 1000/1
♂️ Roy Cooper - 1000/1
♂️ Brian Kemp - 1000/1
♂️ Asa Hutchinson - 1000/1
♂️ Josh Shapiro - 1000/1
♂️ Kanye West - 1000/1
♂️ John Bolton - 1000/1
♂️ Corey Stapleton - 1000/1
♂️ J.B. Pritzker - 1000/1
♂️ Hakeem Jeffries - 1000/1
♂️ Vivek Ramaswamy - 1000/1
♀️ Marianne Williamson - 1000/1
♂️ Robert F. Kennedy Jr. - 1000/1
♂️ Chris Murphy - 1000/1
♂️ Michael Flynn - 1000/1
♂️ Jamie Dimon - 1000/1
♂️ Doug Burgum - 1000/1
♂️ Dean Phillips - 1000/1
♂️ Cornel West - 1000/1
♀️ Nancy Mace - 1000/1
♀️ Elise Stefanik - 1000/1
♂️ Lee Zeldin - 1000/1
♂️ Andy Beshear - 1000/1
♂️ Kash Patel - 1000/1
♂️ Rudy Giuliani - 1000/1
♂️ Eric Trump - 1000/1
♂️ Wes Moore - 1000/1
♀️ Kyrsten Sinema - 1000/1
♂️ Raphael Warnock - 1000/1
♂️ Antony Blinken - 1000/1
♀️ Gina Raimondo - 1000/1
♂️ Hunter Biden - 1000/1
♀️ Jill Biden - 1000/1
♂️ Chuck Schumer - 1000/1
♂️ George Clooney - 1000/1

Blogger Sandracer @ 2:40 am, November 06, 2024  

💰 Polymarket whale hits $49m jackpot on Trump’s election victory >> Donald Trump wasn’t the only winner on Tuesday.

Théo, the French trader who wagered big time on Trump winning a second term on Polymarket, is poised to rake in at least $48.5 million on his audacious wager, according to data on the platform.

With Trump sealing an Electoral College victory Wednesday morning, Theó's wager may go down as one of the richest paydays in political betting ever.

Blogger Sandracer @ 3:20 pm, November 06, 2024  

48.5m Bet On Trump To Win Potus 2024 Details

November 2024▸
➦ A French prediction trader known as “Théo” or “Fredi9999” placed bets totalling about $30 million to $48.5 million on Donald Trump winning the 2024 U.S. presidential election, mainly on the Polymarket Prediction Market platform. Bets of this size made Théo the largest political punter globally ~ ever. His bets were based on a high~conviction analysis, claiming Donald Trump had an 80-90% real chance of winning the 2024 election, when accounting for real polling data, adjusted for perceived anti Trump mainstream media biases.

Betting Strategy▸
➦ Theo’s strategy involved controling significant shares in Polymarket’s election contracts, including about 25% of the contracts for Trump winning the Electoral College and over 40% for the popular vote. Averaged buy price for these shares was around $0.56. Due to the size of his bets and Polymarket’s alleged relatively low liquidity, selling his position early, before the election, would have resulted in substantial losses (ie selling at $0.02 per share ~ a 96% loss).

Trump Win▸
➦ Trump’s easy victory on November 5, 2024, led to Theos bets paying off hugely. Reports estimate his winnings ranged from $50 million to $80 million, with some sources mentioning a potential $48.5 million profit, specifically tied to his Polymarket bets. Theo stated his motivation was purely financial, with “no political agenda,” aiming to capitalise on what he saw as mis~priced odds in the betting Xchange markets.

Questions Remain▸
➦ However, these large bets raised concerns about market manipulation, as they could influence perceptions of Trumps chances, potentially affecting fundraising or voter enthusiasm. Experts wrote that while prediction markets like Polymarket have historically been accurate, such large bets could skew public opinions.

Who Is Theo▸
➦ Theo’s identity remains unconfirmed, and speculation about his motive persist, though he apparently insists his actions were profit driven.

Blogger Sandracer @ 4:41 pm, April 23, 2025  

Theo Reported To Have Won $85m ~ Not $45m In The End
The French gambler known as "Theo" ultimately won approximately $85 million from his bets on Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Initially, it was reported that Theo won around about a mere $45 million from his bets, but further investigations revealed that his total bets amounted to $70 million, spread across multiple accounts on the crypto-based prediction platform Polymarket.

Theo's betting strategy was data-driven; he commissioned private polling that employed the "neighbor poll" method, asking respondents about their neighbors voting intentions. This approach aimed to account for the "shy voter effect" ~ where individuals might be reluctant to disclose their true voting preferences. His analysis led him to predict not only Trump's overall victory but also wins in key swing states and the popular vote.

The substantial nature of his bets and the use of multiple accounts have drawn the attention of French financial regulators, who are currently investigating the legality of his activities on Polymarket, a platform not authorized to operate in France.

Theo has stated that his motivations were purely financial, with no political agenda, ~ emphasizing his intent was solely to profit from his analysis and betting strategy.

Blogger Sandracer @ 11:45 am, May 24, 2025  


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