SANDRACER.COM ~ ALL WEATHER RACING BLOG

Chelmsford AW Code Breaker

My attempt to crack the Chelmsford All Weather code for the saturday evening 6 race card starting at 5:40, in as few words as possible, is as follows.

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❖ Jockeys ❖ Today I'll be looking at jockeys Pat Cosgrave ~ maybe he can follow up this week's win on Curahee.

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❖ Draw Bias ❖ Draw considerations are zero at Chelmsford.

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Chelmsford AW Jockey Statistics

Jockey PAT COSGRAVE

• Date | Race | Type | Distance | Trainer | HORSE
• 30 Aug 2025 7:10 Chelmsford City Nursery Hcp 5f Charlie Fellowes HENRYTHENATE
• 30 Aug 2025 8:10 Chelmsford City Handicap 1m 5f Charlie Fellowes BELAYA RIVER
• 30 Aug 2025 8:40 Chelmsford City Handicap 7f Stuart Williams AMERICAN TREASURE

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Chelmsford Betting Analysis

7:10 Chelmsford ❖ 5f C5 Nursery Hcp. ❖ Henrythenate 10/1 ran well last time out and looked slightly unlucky. Gets a 3lb pull for a 2l defeat with Campanaerts and will be in with a shout at the death at a decent price.

7:10 Chelmsford ~ Win Bet: 10/1 Henrythenate (Unp 5/1 from 10's)

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8:10 Chelmsford ❖ 1m 5f C6 Hcp ❖ Belaya River 4/1 looks a bit short in the market price wise. I can't recommend him as a bet.

# No Bet.

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8:40 Chelmsford ❖ 7f C6 Hcp ❖ American Treasure 16/1 looks to have been given a chance by the handicapper.

8:40 Chelmsford ~ Win Bet: 16/1 American Treasure (Unp 28/1)

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Cracking The Lingfield AW Code

❖ Sat Aug 30 2025

Lingfield AW Code Breaker

Lingfield this evening is a 6 race card with a reasonable looking handicap in the last worth a look at. I will attempt to crack the Lingfield All Weather code in as few words as possible.

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❖ Jockeys ❖ The jockey I am concentrating on today is top Irish jockey Paddy Bradley.

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❖ Trainers ❖ No particular trainer catches my eye for today's meeting.

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❖ Draw Bias ❖ No draw bias at Lingfield worthy of note. You want decent jockeys at Lingfield, not an inside or outside draw etc.

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❖ Bet Selection Considerations ❖

• ❖ Check out all of Paddy Bradley's rides.
• ❖ Also beware anything that has been thrown into a race with a clear and obvious advantage.

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Lingfield AW Jockey Runners

Jockey PADDY BRADLEY

• Date | Race | Type | Distance | Trainer | HORSE
• 30 Aug 2025 5:55 Lingfield Stakes 5f Richard Hughes ROSE OF SPAIN
• 30 Aug 2025 6:25 Lingfield Stakes 7f J R Jenkins HOLD THE PRESS
• 30 Aug 2025 7:25 Lingfield Handicap 1m 4f Simon Dow SOY LOCO

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Lingfield Betting Analysis

6:25 Lingfield ❖ 8f C5 3yo Hcp. Hold The Press (14/1) runs in and out formwise, but has the ability to nick this at a price if he's in the mood. I make him about a 7/1 shot, so I'll take my chances at the price to small stakes.

6:25 Lingfield ~ Win Bet: 14/1 Hold The Press (Unp 14/1)

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7:25 Lingfield ❖ 1m 4f C5 Hcp. Soy Loco 11/1 has shown a bit of promise previously. Down in mark and recently gelded, now upped in trip by a couple of furlongs. I think he's a lively outsider.

7:25 Lingfield ~ Win Bet: 11/1 Soy Loco (Unp 10/1)

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Cracking The Newcastle AW Code

❖ Fri Aug 29 2025

Newcastle AW Code Breaker

The All Weather bandwagon rolls into Newcastle this evening with a 7 race card. There are 5 handicaps to be looked at.

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❖ Jockeys ❖ The jockey I am concentrating on is East London youngster Kaiya Fraser who has 1 ride in the 6:30.

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❖ Trainer ❖ I think trainer Richard Fahey may be worth a second look this evening.

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❖ Draw Bias ❖ The draw bias at Newcastle is non existent, so nothing to see there.

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Newcastle AW Jockey Statistics

Jockey KAIYA FRASER

• Date | Race | Type | Distance | Trainer | Horse
• 29 Aug 2025 6:30 Newcastle Handicap 1m 2f Rebecca Menzies WEEGEEBEAR

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Newcastle AW Trainer Statistics

Jockey RICHARD FAHEY

• Date | Race | Type | Distance | Jockey | Horse
• 29 Aug 2025 6:00 Newcastle Handicap 1m 2f Oisin Orr SHAMARDAL STAR
• 29 Aug 2025 7:00 Newcastle Nursery Hcp 6f Ethan Tindall BRIMFULOFATTITUDE
• 29 Aug 2025 8:00 Newcastle Handicap 7f Oisin Orr FLYING FLETCHER
• 29 Aug 2025 8:30 Newcastle Novice Stakes 6f Oisin Orr KOMORKIS

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Newcastle Betting Analysis

6:00 Newcastle ❖ 1m 2f C6 Hcp ❖ Shamardal Star (5/2f) is certainly on a friendly mark right now.

Conclusion: Impossible to back with any confidence. The 5/2 on offer is miserable. May well win based on 1 piece of form from Dec 28 2024 over the C&D from 10lb higher, beaten 8 lengths ~ but 5/2 favourite? No thanks.

# No Bet

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6:30 Newcastle ❖ 1m 2f C6 Hcp ❖ Weegeebear 9/2 has enough Irish form in the book to make him a major player against these.

Conclusion: The 9/2 is a reasonable price with Kaiya Fraser aboard. The extra furlong will probably help the horse, so I think I'll take the plunge on him first time up over this distance. His form at Dundalk proves the AW surface should be of no concern first time of trying it here in England.

6:30 Newc ~ Win Bet: 9/2 Weegeebear (Unp 17/2)

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8:00 Newcastle ❖ 7f C5 Hcp ❖ Flying Fletcher 2/1f has some decent Newc AW form in the book ~ enough to make him a solid favourite for this race.

Conclusion: Won here over the C&D a stone higher than today's mark. This C5 represents a drop in class, so he just gets in at topweight. I wouldn't want to lay him at evens to be honest.

8:00 Newc ~ Win Bet: 2/1f Flying Fletcher (Unp 2/1f)

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Southwell AW Code Breaker

My attempt to crack the AW code at Southwell this evening takes me to the 6th and last day of the £2m Racing League. The racing becomes alot more competetive when there's better prize money. Picking out winners becomes more difficult, but that's the game.

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❖ Jockeys ❖ I'll be focusing on the horses ridden by Jason Hart. Also, after a quick look at the stats ~ Daniel Muscutt comes into the spotlight for me this evening.

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❖ Trainers ❖ Very strong line up trainer~wise this evening. Hence, no one stands out as worth focusing on specifically.

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❖ Draw Bias ❖ The draw bias at Southwell is non existent. Back who you like wherever they're drawn. If backing any front runners, pay close attention to whether they'll actually get home up the slightly uphill 1.5f finish.

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❖ Bet Selection Considerations ❖

• Anything ridden by Daniel Muscutt or Jason Hart
• Solid Southwell C&D form may be a good pointer this evening
• I will be focusing on handicaps only

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Southwell AW Jockey Statistics

Jockey DANIEL MUSCUTT

• Date | Race | Type | Distance | Trainer | Horse
• 28 Aug 2025 6:15 Southwell Handicap 7f James Fanshawe PHILANTHROPIST
• 28 Aug 2025 6:45 Southwell Handicap 6f Gemma Tutty ORMOLULU
• 28 Aug 2025 7:45 Southwell Handicap 1m David Evans BLUE PRINCE
• 28 Aug 2025 8:15 Southwell Handicap 1m 3f James Fanshawe CHARMAINE

Jockey JASON HART

• Date | Race | Type | Distance | Trainer | Horse
• 28 Aug 2025 5:45 Southwell Handicap 1m 4f B F Brookhouse SECRET BEACH (Non Runner)
• 28 Aug 2025 8:15 Southwell Handicap 1m 3f J S Quinn LIBERTY COACH

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Southwell Betting Analysis

6:15 Southwell ❖ 7f C4 Hcp ❖ Muscutt's rides Philanthropist (3/1f) who was a slightly unlucky loser last time out over the C&D.

Conclusion: The 3/1 on offer looks reasonable to me. He will be rattling home and looks the most likely to prevail. He's not nailed on, which is why you can get 3/1 currently. I think he'll win tonight.

6:15 South ~ Win Bet: 3/1f Philanthropist (3rd 3/1)

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6:45 Southwell ❖ 6f C4 Hcp ❖ 3/1fav Ormululu has an obvious chance with Muscutt aboard.

Conclusion: Ormululu (3/1f) is a bet I will pass up. Her tardy starting will almost certainly cost her the race. Arguably this is a drop in class for today, but something is still very likely going to hold her off at the death.

# No Bet.

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7:45 Southwell ❖ 1m C3 Hcp ❖ Blue Prince 18/1 is a lively outsider.

Conclusion: Blue Prince 18/1 is a danger to them all at a price, but I need a little more evidence that he can actually do a mile. The 8f trip seems to be just beyond him, but I would not be surprised to see him rattle past them late with the aid of Muscutt up top.

# No Bet

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8:15 Southwell ❖ 1m 3f C3 Hcp ❖ Liberty Coach (10/1) with Hart aboard looks to me, to have a better chance of winning that Muscutt's Charmaine (9/2).

Conclusion: Liberty Coach (10/1) has been pretty much discounted as a winning prospect, but I think the extra furlong won't be a problem. He was running off of 17lb lower this time last year, so he's on the up and it is possible the mark of 91 is not beyond him. At the price, I'll play.

8:15 South ~ Win Bet: 10/1 Liberty Coach (Unp 9/1)

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Chelmsford AW Code Breaker

My attempt to crack the Chelmsford All Weather code for the afternoon 6 race card starting at 2:20, in as few words as possible, is as follows.

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❖ Jockeys ❖ Today I'll be looking at jockeys Pat Cosgrave and David Egan in thier handicap races where they have 3 rides between them.

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❖ Draw Bias ❖ Draw considerations are zero at Chelmsford.

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Chelmsford AW Jockey Statistics

Jockey PAT COSGRAVE

• Date | Race | Type | Distance | Trainer | HORSE
• 28 Aug 2025 2:20 Chelmsford City Handicap 6f Richard Hannon PRINCESS BILLYBOY
• 28 Aug 2025 3:20 Chelmsford City Handicap 7f Stuart Williams CURRAHEE

Jockey DAVID EGAN

• Date | Race | Type | Distance | Trainer | HORSE
• 28 Aug 2025 3:50 Chelmsford City Handicap 5f Robert Cowell AGOSTINO

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Chelmsford Betting Analysis

2:20 Chelmsford ❖ 6f C6 Nursery Hcp. ❖ Princess Bullyboy 11/1 is a horse I will pass over. She might be worth a speculative punt coming from the Hannon yard with Cosgrave aboard first time up in a handicap ~ but she's not for me.

# No Bet.

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3:20 Chelmsford ❖ 7f C6 3yo Hcp ❖ Curahee 10/3 will make a bold bid to win this from the front under Pat Cosgrave. I think the 10/3 on offer is a fair price.

3:20 Chelmsford ~ Win Bet: 10/3 Curahee (Won 7/2)

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3:50 Chelmsford ❖ 5f C5 Hcp ❖ Agostino 9/1 could well be a budding Chelmsford specialist. He seems to run much better here than anywhere else. Maybe he likes the wide sweeping bend over the 5f trip. David Egan rides well here, so there's a bit to like all round. I think the 9/1 on offer is a reasonable betting opportunity.

3:50 Chelmsford ~ Win Bet: 9/1 Agostino (Unp 12/1)

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Kempton AW Code Breaker

Kempton on the All Weather this evening is a 7 race card. Some decent races to look at. 3 stakes and 4 handicaps in total. I will attempt to crack the Kemp All Weather code in as few words as possible.

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❖ Jockeys ❖ The jockey I am concentrating on today is top jockey Oisin Murphy.

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❖ Trainers ❖ No trainer in particular catches my eye today.

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❖ Draw Bias ❖ Draw considerations come into play sharply at Kempton. I will be looking for a low draw (1~5) in all races up to a mile.

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❖ Bet Selection Considerations ❖

• ❖ If anything Murphy is on is well drawn, give it a close look on form.
• ❖ Also beware anything that has been thrown into a race with a clear and obvious advantage.

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Kempton AW Jockey Runners

Jockey OISIN MURPHY

• Date | Race | Type | Distance | Trainer | HORSE
• 27 Aug 2025 5:37 Kempton Stakes 1m Andrew Balding UNITER
• 27 Aug 2025 6:07 Kempton Stakes 7f Claire Kubler GRIZEDALE DANIEL
• 27 Aug 2025 6:37 Kempton Stakes 7f Denis Coakley MY FERMOY
• 27 Aug 2025 7:07 Kempton Handicap 7f Newland & Insole 7f LA FERVEUR
• 27 Aug 2025 8:07 Kempton Handicap 6f Harry Charlton KINIRO
• 27 Aug 2025 8:37 Kempton Handicap 1m 4f Andrew Balding KARTHON

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Kempton Betting Analysis

8:07 Kempton ❖ 6f C4 3yo Hcp. Kinero (11/4f) starts slowly but can rattle home past these from a falling mark of 75 with Oisin Murphy taking the ride today.

8:07 Kempton ~ Win Bet: 11/4f Kinero (3rd 16/5f)

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8:37 Kempton ❖ 1m 4f C6 Hcp. Karthon (11/8f) drops a touch in grade and does not have to come up fast from out wide early on with today's draw in trap 4. I make him an easy Evens fav atleast. The 11/8 on offer is reasonable.

8:37 Kempton ~ Win Bet: 11/8f Karthon (Unp 13/8f)

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Cracking The Lingfield AW Code

❖ Thurs Aug 21 2025

Lingfield AW Code Breaker

Lingfield on the All Weather this evening is a 8 race card with 2 maidens, a classified and 5 handicap races, one for amatuer riders. I will attempt to crack the Lingfield All Weather code in as few words as possible.

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❖ Jockeys ❖ The jockey I am concentrating on today is top Irish jockey Rossa Ryan.

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❖ Trainers ❖ No particular trainer catches my eye for today's meeting.

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❖ Draw Bias ❖ No draw bias at Lingfield worthy of note. You want decent jockeys at Lingfield, not an inside or outside draw etc.

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❖ Bet Selection Considerations ❖

• ❖ If Rossa Ryan is aboard, give it a close look on form.
• ❖ Also beware anything that has been thrown into a race with a clear and obvious advantage.

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Lingfield AW Jockey Runners

Jockey ROSSA RYAN

• Date | Race | Type | Distance | Trainer | HORSE
• 26 Aug 2025 6:40 Lingfield Handicap 1m Ed Dunlop AMBER HONEY
• 26 Aug 2025 7:10 Lingfield Handicap 7f Charlie Fellowes SAYTARR
• 26 Aug 2025 7:40 Lingfield Handicap 6f David Evans RUMBA BAY

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Lingfield Betting Analysis

6:40 Lingfield ❖ 8f C5 3yo Hcp. Amber Honey (8/1) has a decent mile performance under her belt and should be hard to beat carrying the 56 she has on her back today. Rossa Ryan will be an invaluable partner here at Lingfield.

6:40 Lingfield ~ Win Bet: 8/1 Amber Honey (2nd 15/2)

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7:10 Lingfield ❖ 7f C5 Hcp. Saytarr (5/4f) looks likely to prevail, but I will pass at 5/4 in a C5 handicap.

# No Bet:

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7:40 Lingfield ❖ 6f C6 Hcp. Rumba Bay (15/2) has a decent enough 6f hcp run on the All Weather at Wolverhampton to her name. Lingfield is a tricky enough AW track, as is Wolver ~ so I'll take a chance that Rossa Ryan can get her home as he did previously.

7:40 Lingfield ~ Win Bet: 15/2 Rumba Bay (Unplaced 6/1)

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Cracking The Southwell AW Code

❖ Mon Aug 25 2025

Southwell AW Code Breaker

Up early on this bank holiday monday to check out the form for the 8 races on the card and to try to crack the AW code at Southwell today. I have my eye on 6 handicaps.

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❖ Jockeys ❖ Hector Crouch is having a good season, as is Paddy Bradley ~ they are the two jocks I'll be focusing on today.

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❖ Trainers ❖ Trainer focus is not of much use today regarding pointers.

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❖ Draw Bias ❖ The draw bias at Southwell is non existent. Back who you like wherever they're drawn. If backing any front runners, pay close attention to whether you think they have the ability to actually get home up the slightly uphill 1.5f finish.

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❖ Bet Selection Considerations ❖

• Anything ridden by Hector Crouch or Paddy Bradley
• Solid Southwell C&D form may be a good pointer this afternoon
• I will be discounting the maiden runner race ~ focusing on the handicaps only

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Southwell AW Jockey Statistics

Jockey HECTOR CROUCH

• Date | Race | Type | Distance | Trainer | Horse
• 25 Aug 2025 2:15 Southwell Handicap 1m 6f Ralph Beckett NEW YORK MINUTE
• 25 Aug 2025 2:50 Southwell Handicap 1m Jack Jones TIEMPO ALEGRE
• 25 Aug 2025 4:00 Southwell Handicap 7f Richard Hughes SHEIKH RAJ

Jockey PADDY BRADLEY

• Date | Race | Type | Distance | Trainer | Horse
• 25 Aug 2025 2:50 Southwell Handicap 1m Patrick Morris EDEN STORM
• 25 Aug 2025 4:33 Southwell Handicap 7f Josh Moore DANNICK
• 25 Aug 2025 5:38 Southwell Handicap 6f Patrick Morris MYTHICAL ISLE (NR)

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Southwell Betting Analysis

2:15 Southwell ❖ 2mile C5 Hcp ❖ Hector Crouch rides New York Minute (9/4f) for Ralph Beckett.

Conclusion: New York Minute (9/4f) is having his first run on the All Weather. I cannot possibly back him at 9/4f. He may well win, but there are some obvious opponents who are not worth opposing at the odds on offer.

# No Bet.

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2:50 Southwell ❖ 1m C6 Hcp ❖ Tiempo Allegre (3/1f) won easily last time up over the C&D.

Conclusion: Ridden by Hector Crouch last time up, Tiempo Allegre won easily by 4.5l over the C&D a month ago. Upped 9lb for that effort, I am of the opinion the rise probably won't be enough to stop her following up.

2:50 South ~ Win Bet: 3/1f Tiempo Allegre (2nd 7/2f)

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4:00 Southwell ❖ 7f C6 3yo Hcp ❖ Hector Crouch comes here on the well fancied Sheikh Raj (2/1f)

Conclusion: Sheikh Raj (2/1f) has just had a win op and looks like the likely winner in this low grade hcp. I won't be chancing it though, not at the price. I'll watch.

# No Bet.

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4:33 Southwell ❖ 7f C5 3yo Hcp ❖ Paddy Bradley rides Dannick (7/2) for the Gary & Josh Moore stable.

Conclusion: This represent a slight drop in grade for Dannick and he looks like he'll go well on the surface. I think the 7/2 on offer is a reasonable betting proposition.

4:33 South ~ Win Bet: 7/2 Dannick (2nd 2/1jf from 7/2)

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Labels: All-Weather-Code