Royal Ascot - Day Two - 2025
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| No | Horse | Dr | Trainer | Jockey | Ag | Wt | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | America (IRE) | 24 | B J Meehan | Tom Marquand | 2 | 9-2 | 50/1 |
| 2 | Caitlin G | 6 | Michael Keady | K S McHugh | 2 | 9-2 | 200/1 |
| 3 | Cardiff By The Sea (IRE) | 16 | J A Stack | Oisin Murphy | 2 | 9-2 | 12/1 |
| 4 | Come On Eibhlin (IRE) | 1 | Dylan Cunha | Josephine Gordon | 2 | 9-2 | 150/1 |
| 5 | Eskimo Pie (IRE) | 3 | J Chap Hyam | D McMonagle | 2 | 9-2 | 70/1 |
| 6 | Eternal Solace | 22 | Ollie Sangster | Jason Watson | 2 | 9-2 | 66/1 |
| 7 | Flowerhead (IRE) | 7 | Charlie Clover | C T Keane | 2 | 9-2 | 50/1 |
| 8 | Guernsey Lady (IRE) | 17 | P D Evans | J F Egan | 2 | 9-2 | 125/1 |
| 9 | Harry's Girl | 19 | R Hannon | S M Levey | 2 | 9-2 | 18/1 |
| 10 | Justice Twice (IRE) | 20 | H Kobeissi | Hollie Doyle | 2 | 9-2 | 100/1 |
| 11 | Lennilu (USA) | 13 | P Biancone | Luis Saez | 2 | 9-2 | 9/1 |
| 12 | Love Olivia | 8 | K R Burke | D Egan | 2 | 9-2 | 28/1 |
| 13 | Miss Yechance (IRE) | 11 | Jack Morland | N Callan | 2 | 9-2 | 66/1 |
| 14 | Paris Carver (USA) | 14 | A Murray | Rossa Ryan | 2 | 9-2 | 25/1 |
| 15 | Revival Power (IRE) | 9 | T D Easterby | D Allan | 2 | 9-2 | 22/1 |
| 16 | Secret Hideaway (IRE) | 18 | A Keatley | P J McDonald | 2 | 9-2 | 25/1 |
| 17 | Shine On Me | 12 | A Watson | James McDonald | 2 | 9-2 | 66/1 |
| 18 | Social Exclusion | 23 | James Owen | S De Sousa | 2 | 9-2 | 150/1 |
| 19 | Society Kiss | 10 | R M Beckett | Hector Crouch | 2 | 9-2 | 10/1 |
| 20 | Solana Rose (IRE) | 2 | D O'Meara | D Tudhope | 2 | 9-2 | 33/1 |
| 21 | Spicy Marg | 5 | M L W Bell | K Shoemark | 2 | 9-2 | 10/1 |
| 22 | Staya | 4 | George Scott | Callum Shepherd | 2 | 9-2 | 14/1 |
| 23 | True Love (IRE) | 25 | A P O'Brien | R L Moore | 2 | 9-2 | 5/2 |
| 24 | Viamarie | 21 | G Boughey | Billy Loughnane | 2 | 9-2 | 40/1 |
| 25 | Zelaina | 15 | K R Burke | James Doyle | 2 | 9-2 | 7/2 |
| All Odds▸ True Love 5/2 | Zelaina 7/2 | Lennilu 9/1 | Society Kiss 10/1 | Spicy Marg 10/1 | Cardiff By The Sea 12/1 | Staya 14/1 | Harry's Girl 18/1 | Revival Power 22/1 | Secret Hideaway 25/1 | Paris Carver 28/1 | Love Olivia 28/1 | Solana Rose 33/1 | Viamarie 40/1 | Flowerhead 50/1 | America 50/1 | Shine On Me 66/1 | Eternal Solace 66/1 | Miss Yechance 66/1 | Eskimo Pie 70/1 | Justice Twice 100/1 | Guernsey Lady 125/1 | Social Exclusion 150/1 | Come On Eibhlin 150/1 | Caitlin G 200/1 | |||||||
Race Analysis ~ 14:30 Ascot ~ Queen Mary Stakes (Fillies Group 2)
Going▸ Good to Firm (Good in Places) | Distance▸ 5f | Surface▸ Turf
Key Contenders
- True Love (5/2) ~ Aidan O’Brien’s filly, second in both starts (Navan 6f, Curragh 5f Listed). Stall 25 is gold dust with the high-draw bias. Ryan Moore’s tactical nous makes her a serious player, but the hype’s baked into her price.
- Zelaina (7/2) ~ Karl Burke’s debut winner at Nottingham (5f, good) by 2.75 lengths. Stall 15 offers flexibility, and James Doyle’s booking screams intent. Lightly raced but brimming with potential.
- Lennilu (9/1) ~ Unbeaten American raider (2-2, Keeneland 4.5f, Gulfstream 5f). Patrick Biancone’s filly has raw speed, but stall 13 and Ascot’s unique demands are hurdles.
- Society Kiss (10/1) ~ Ralph Beckett’s filly won her only start at Ascot (5f, maiden). Course experience is a big tick, but stall 10 may not capitalize on the high-draw edge.
- Spicy Marg (10/1) ~ Michael Bell’s Newmarket 5f debut winner. Stall 5 is a concern unless watering shifts the bias to low/mid draws.
📈 Form & Value Ratings (1~5)
| Horse | Rating | Summary |
|---|---|---|
| True Love | ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆ | Proven in Listed company, perfect draw, elite connections. Price is tight, but she’s the one to beat. |
| Zelaina | ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆ | Electric debut, but untested in this grade. Mid-draw keeps her in the game; could outrun her odds. |
| Lennilu | ⭐⭐⭐☆☆ | Unbeaten speedster, but middle draw and Ascot’s quirks could expose her. Risky at single-digit odds. |
| Society Kiss | ⭐⭐⭐☆☆ | Ascot win is a plus, but draw and step-up in class demand more. Place claims at best. |
| Spicy Marg | ⭐⭐⭐☆☆ | Strong debut, but low draw is a gamble unless bias shifts. Needs a fast pace to shine. |
| Cardiff By The Sea | ⭐⭐☆☆☆ | Decent form, but stall 16 and lack of proven speed at 5f make her a long shot. |
| Staya | ⭐⭐☆☆☆ | Some promise, but stall 4 and modest form suggest she’s up against it. |
📊 Trends & Betting Dynamics
- Draw Bias▸ High draws dominate: 11 of the last 12 winners came from stands’ side (high stalls, 17+), with recent winners in stalls 26, 17, and 21. Low/mid draws need watering or pace collapse to compete.
- Profile Key▸ Winners typically have strong 5f form, often with Listed or Group experience. Hold-up horses thrive on Ascot’s straight course, especially on fast ground.
- Trainer Bias▸ O’Brien’s chasing his first Queen Mary win, while Burke’s stable is in hot form. Beckett’s course knowledge can’t be ignored.
- Market Moves▸ Zelaina’s odds have tightened (7/2 from 4/1), while True Love holds firm at 5/2. Longer shots like Society Kiss and Spicy Marg offer value if the pace burns the leaders.
Conclusion▸ True Love ticks every box: stall 25 nails the high-draw bias, her Listed form is rock-solid, and O’Brien-Moore are a class apart. But her price is skinny, and this is a 25-runner war where value can bite. Zelaina’s debut was electric, and her mid-draw offers tactical options, but she’s unproven at this level. Lennilu’s speed is tempting, but her draw and Ascot’s learning curve are risks. Society Kiss knows the course, but stall 10 dulls her shine. The real edge lies in a filly whose form and draw align without the market’s full attention.
⭐ Bet Analysis ~ Where's the Edge?
- True Love (5/2)▸ The obvious pick ~ draw, form, and connections scream winner. But 5/2 in a 25-runner field feels like paying for the hype.
- Zelaina (7/2)▸ Flashy debut, but her price reflects the buzz. Stall 15 is fine, but not as golden as high draws. Needs to step up.
- Lennilu (9/1)▸ Unbeaten, but stall 13 and Ascot’s unique demands make her a risky play. Speed alone might not cut it.
- Society Kiss (10/1)▸ Ascot win is a plus, but stall 10 and tougher competition cap her ceiling. Better for place hunters.
- Spicy Marg (10/1)▸ Low draw (5) is a gamble, but her debut win showed grit. Needs a bias shift or pace meltdown to strike.
Final Take▸ This race is a high-draw lottery, and True Love has the golden ticket in stall 25. Her Curragh Listed second proves she can handle the heat, and Moore’s hold-up ride will exploit Ascot’s straight-course bias. Zelaina’s a danger, but her inexperience and less thanideal draw tilt the scales. Lennilu and Society Kiss have claims, but True Love’s setup is too perfect to overlook. She’s the winner.
Recommended Bet▸ 14:30 Ascot: True Love (5/2)
| No | Horse | Dr | Trainer | Jockey | Ag | Wt | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Wasl Storm (IRE) | 1 | Owen Burrows | David Probert | 3 | 9-2 | 50/1 |
| 2 | Asmarani (IRE) | 13 | F Graffard | M Barzalona | 3 | 9-2 | 5/1 |
| 3 | Carmers (IRE) | 4 | P Twomey | W J Lee | 3 | 9-2 | 13/2 |
| 4 | Devil's Advocate | 9 | J & T Gosden | W Buick | 3 | 9-2 | 17/2 |
| 5 | Furthur (IRE) | 2 | A M Balding | Oisin Murphy | 3 | 9-2 | 18/1 |
| 6 | Hallelujah U | 8 | James Owen | Jim Crowley | 3 | 9-2 | 80/1 |
| 7 | Pinhole | 5 | R M Beckett | C T Keane | 3 | 9-2 | 8/1 |
| 8 | Rahiebb | 10 | R Varian | S De Sousa | 3 | 9-2 | 11/2 |
| 9 | Scandinavia (USA) | 7 | A P O'Brien | W M Lordan | 3 | 9-2 | 12/1 |
| 10 | Shackleton (IRE) | 3 | A P O'Brien | R L Moore | 3 | 9-2 | 9/2 |
| 11 | Spinning Wheel | 11 | S & E Crisford | Harry Davies | 3 | 9-2 | 22/1 |
| 12 | Titanium Emperor (IRE) | 6 | A Murray | D Egan | 3 | 9-2 | 66/1 |
| 13 | Too Soon | 12 | G & J Moore | Rhys Clutterbuck | 3 | 9-2 | 66/1 |
| All Odds▸ Shackleton 9/2 | Asmarani 5/1 | Rahiebb 11/2 | Carmers 13/2 | Pinhole 8/1 | Devils Advocate 17/2 | Scandinavia 12/1 | Furthur 18/1 | Spinning Wheel 22/1 | Al Wasl Storm 50/1 | Titanium Emperor 66/1 | Too Soon 66/1 | Hallelujah U 80/1 | |||||||
Race Analysis ~ 15:05 Ascot ~ Queen's Vase (Group 2)
Going▸ Good to Firm (Good in Places) | Distance▸ 1m 6f 34y | Surface▸ Turf
Key Contenders
- Shackleton (9/2) ~ Aidan O’Brien’s colt, progressive in 2024, with a win over 1m 4f and a strong third in a Group 3 at Leopardstown. Stall 3 is workable, and Ryan Moore’s booking is a major plus. Market leader, but the price reflects his credentials.
- Asmarani (5/1) ~ Fabrice Graffard’s French raider, a consistent stayer with a Listed win over 1m 5f at Longchamp. Stall 13 is high, but the round course at this trip minimizes draw concerns. Mickael Barzalona adds class.
- Rahiebb (11/2) ~ Roger Varian’s colt, a winner over 1m 4f at Newmarket, showing stamina and a sharp turn of foot. Stall 10 offers tactical flexibility, and Silvestre De Sousa’s aggressive riding suits a staying test.
- Carmers (13/2) ~ Paddy Twomey’s charge, a winner over 1m 3f and placed in a Listed race at Navan. Stall 4 is ideal for a prominent runner, and Billy Lee’s experience is a bonus.
- Pinhole (8/1) ~ Ralph Beckett’s colt, progressive with a win over 1m 4f at Kempton. Stall 5 suits, and Colin Keane’s booking signals intent. Needs to prove he handles this step-up in class.
📈 Form & Value Ratings (1~5)
| Horse | Rating | Summary |
|---|---|---|
| Shackleton | ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆ | Group 3 form, O’Brien-Moore combo, and stamina make him the benchmark. Price is fair, but he’s no lock. |
| Asmarani | ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆ | French Listed winner with staying power. High draw isn’t a dealbreaker; could challenge if he adapts. |
| Rahiebb | ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆ | Newmarket win shows class and stamina. Stall 10 and De Sousa’s drive give him a real shot. |
| Carmers | ⭐⭐⭐☆☆ | Solid Listed form, but needs more to topple the big guns. Stall 4 helps; could hit the frame. |
| Pinhole | ⭐⭐⭐☆☆ | Progressive, but this is a big ask. Stall 5 and Keane keep him in the mix, but others have stronger form. |
| Devil’s Advocate | ⭐⭐☆☆☆ | Gosden’s colt has potential, but recent form is patchy. Stall 9 and Buick are pluses, but he’s a risk. |
| Scandinavia | ⭐⭐☆☆☆ | O’Brien’s second string, outshone by Shackleton. Stall 7 is fine, but form suggests he’s up against it. |
📊 Trends & Betting Dynamics
- Draw Bias▸ The round course at 1m 6f minimizes draw impact, but low to middle stalls (2~8) often produce winners due to easier positioning early on. High draws (10+) can work but need a strong pace.
- Profile Key▸ Winners typically have proven form over 1m 4f+, with Listed or Group experience. Stamina is critical, and hold-up horses often finish strongly on Ascot’s testing finish.
- Trainer Bias▸ O’Brien has won four of the last six Queen’s Vases, often with horses like Shackleton who combine stamina and class. Varian and Graffard bring strong credentials too.
- Market Moves▸ Shackleton’s 9/2 leads, with Asmarani (5/1) and Rahiebb (11/2) gaining support. Longer shots like Pinhole (8/1) could attract late money if pace suits.
Conclusion▸ Shackleton’s Group 3 form and O’Brien-Moore partnership make him the horse to beat, but 9/2 in a 13-runner Group 2 feels a touch short for a colt yet to win at this level. Asmarani’s French form is rock-solid, but stall 13 demands a smart ride. Carmers and Pinhole have claims, but their form lacks the edge of the top trio. Rahiebb’s Newmarket win and tactical versatility make him a live threat, especially with De Sousa’s hunger. The winner will need stamina, a clean run, and a touch of class to navigate Ascot’s grueling 1m 6f.
⭐ Bet Analysis ~ Where's the Edge?
- Shackleton (9/2)▸ The class act with the right connections, but his price reflects the hype. Stall 3 is solid, but he’s not unbeatable.
- Asmarani (5/1)▸ Listed winner with stamina, but stall 13 could force a wide trip. French form is respected, but adaptation is key.
- Rahiebb (11/2)▸ Newmarket win shows he stays well, and stall 10 allows De Sousa to dictate terms. Offers value against the favourites.
- Carmers (13/2)▸ Listed form is decent, but he needs a career-best to topple the top two. Stall 4 helps, but others have more upside.
- Pinhole (8/1)▸ Progressive, but this step-up in class is steep. Stall 5 is a plus, but he’s likely a place contender.
Final Take▸ Rahiebb is the one to beat. His Newmarket win over 1m 4f showcased stamina and a devastating kick, perfect for Ascot’s demanding 1m 6f. Stall 10 gives De Sousa options to sit handy or track the pace, and at 11/2, he’s better value than Shackleton’s hyped 9/2 or Asmarani’s tricky draw. Shackleton’s class is undeniable, but Rahiebb’s form, versatility, and Varian’s Ascot nous tilt the scales. He’ll outstay them late.
Recommended Bet▸ 15:05 Ascot: Rahiebb (11/2)
| No | Horse | Dr | Trainer | Jockey | Ag | Wt | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cinderella's Dream | 3 | C Appleby | W Buick | 4 | 9-5 | 6/4 |
| 2 | Crimson Advocate (USA) | 6 | J & T Gosden | James McDonald | 4 | 9-2 | 28/1 |
| 3 | Elmalka | 1 | R Varian | S De Sousa | 4 | 9-2 | 16/1 |
| 4 | Fallen Angel | 8 | K R Burke | James Doyle | 4 | 9-2 | 9/2 |
| 5 | One Look (IRE) | 4 | P Twomey | W J Lee | 4 | 9-2 | 9/2 |
| 6 | Running Lion | 5 | J & T Gosden | Oisin Murphy | 5 | 9-2 | 8/1 |
| 7 | Soprano (IRE) | 7 | G Boughey | Billy Loughnane | 4 | 9-2 | 18/1 |
| 8 | Start Of Day | 2 | C H Head | Aurelien Lemaitre | 4 | 9-2 | 16/1 |
| All Odds▸ Cinderella's Dream 6/4 | Fallen Angel 9/2 | One Look 9/2 | Running Lion 8/1 | Start Of Day 16/1 | Elmalka 16/1 | Soprano 18/1 | Crimson Advocate 28/1 | |||||||
Race Analysis ~ 15:40 Ascot ~ Duke Of Cambridge Stakes (Group 2)
Going▸ Good to Firm (Good in Places) | Distance▸ 7f 213y | Surface▸ Turf
Key Contenders
- Cinderella's Dream (6/4) ~ Charlie Appleby’s filly, a Group 2 winner at Meydan (1m, good) in 2024 and narrowly beaten in the 1000 Guineas. Stall 3 is ideal, and William Buick’s booking screams confidence. Short price reflects her class.
- Fallen Angel (9/2) ~ Karl Burke’s star, winner of the 2024 Irish 1000 Guineas. Stall 8 is manageable, and James Doyle’s tactical ride will aim to exploit her stamina. A major player if she handles the quick ground.
- One Look (9/2) ~ Paddy Twomey’s filly, unbeaten in two starts, including a Group 3 at Leopardstown (7f, good). Stall 4 suits, and Billy Lee’s experience adds weight. Lightly raced with huge potential.
- Running Lion (8/1) ~ John & Thady Gosden’s mare, second in the 2024 Falmouth Stakes (1m, good). Stall 5 is perfect, and Oisin Murphy’s booking boosts her chances. Needs a career-best but loves Ascot.
- Elmalka (16/1) ~ Roger Varian’s filly, a surprise 2024 1000 Guineas winner at 28/1. Stall 1 is a plus, but recent form is inconsistent. Silvestre De Sousa could spark a revival.
📈 Form & Value Ratings (1~5)
| Horse | Rating | Summary |
|---|---|---|
| Cinderella's Dream | ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆ | Group 2 winner, Guineas form, ideal draw. Price is short, but she’s the benchmark. |
| Fallen Angel | ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆ | Irish Guineas winner with stamina. Stall 8 is tricky, but class could shine through. |
| One Look | ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆ | Unbeaten, Group 3 form, prime draw. Lightly raced; could outrun her odds. |
| Running Lion | ⭐⭐⭐☆☆ | Falmouth second, loves Ascot. Needs a peak effort, but stall 5 and Murphy keep her in play. |
| Elmalka | ⭐⭐☆☆☆ | Guineas upset proves ability, but recent runs flatter. Stall 1 helps; could surprise. |
| Start Of Day | ⭐⭐☆☆☆ | French form is decent, but this is a big step-up. Stall 2 is fine, but others have stronger claims. |
| Soprano | ⭐☆☆☆☆ | Group 3 form is solid, but stall 7 and tougher field make her a long shot. |
| Crimson Advocate | ⭐☆☆☆☆ | Outclassed at this level; stall 6 and 28/1 odds reflect her slim chances. |
📊 Trends & Betting Dynamics
- Draw Bias▸ Low to middle draws (1~5) often fare best over Ascot’s round 1m, allowing horses to save ground early. High draws (6~8) can win but need a strong pace or wide trip to avoid trouble.
- Profile Key▸ Winners typically have Group 1 or 2 form, often from the Guineas or similar 1m races. Fillies with tactical speed and a strong finish thrive on Ascot’s stiff mile.
- Trainer Bias▸ Appleby’s record in Group races is stellar, while Burke and Gosden have won this race recently. Twomey’s Irish form adds intrigue with One Look.
- Market Moves▸ Cinderella’s Dream dominates at 6/4, with Fallen Angel and One Look steady at 9/2. Running Lion’s 8/1 could attract late support given Gosden’s Ascot prowess.
Conclusion▸ Cinderella’s Dream sets a towering standard with her Meydan Group 2 win and 1000 Guineas near-miss, but 6/4 in an 8-runner field feels like buying the hype. Fallen Angel’s Irish Guineas triumph proves she’s top-tier, but stall 8 risks a wide run. One Look’s unbeaten record and prime draw make her a serious threat, while Running Lion’s Ascot affinity keeps her in the frame. Elmalka’s Guineas win hints at upset potential, but consistency is a concern. The winner will need class, a clean trip, and the stamina to tackle Ascot’s punishing finish.
⭐ Bet Analysis ~ Where's the Edge?
- Cinderella's Dream (6/4)▸ Classy, well-drawn, and Buick’s aboard. Short price leaves little room for error in a competitive field.
- Fallen Angel (9/2)▸ Irish Guineas winner with proven stamina. Stall 8 is a concern, but Burke’s form makes her dangerous.
- One Look (9/2)▸ Unbeaten, Group 3 winner, ideal stall 4. Twomey’s prep and Lee’s ride offer value against the favourite.
- Running Lion (8/1)▸ Loves Ascot, but needs a career-best. Stall 5 and Murphy are pluses; could sneak a place.
- Elmalka (16/1)▸ Guineas win shows ability, but recent form is shaky. Stall 1 gives De Sousa a shot to revive her.
Final Take▸ One Look is the filly to beat. Her unbeaten record, including a Group 3 win at Leopardstown, marks her as a rising star, and stall 4 allows Billy Lee to dictate a perfect trip. At 9/2, she’s better value than Cinderella’s Dream, whose 6/4 odds demand perfection. Fallen Angel’s class is undeniable, but stall 8 could compromise her, and Running Lion needs a peak effort. One Look’s tactical speed and Twomey’s meticulous prep will see her storm home late on Ascot’s stiff mile.
Recommended Bet▸ 15:40 Ascot: One Look (9/2)
| No | Horse | Dr | Trainer | Jockey | Ag | Wt | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anmaat | 8 | Owen Burrows | Jim Crowley | 7 | 9-2 | 4/1 |
| 2 | Certain Lad | 9 | J Channon | George Bass | 9 | 9-2 | 125/1 |
| 3 | Continuous | 7 | A P O'Brien | W M Lordan | 5 | 9-2 | 100/1 |
| 4 | Facteur Cheval | 4 | J Reynier | Flavien Prat | 6 | 9-2 | 25/1 |
| 5 | Los Angeles | 5 | A P O'Brien | R L Moore | 4 | 9-2 | 9/4 |
| 6 | Map Of Stars | 2 | F Graffard | James Doyle | 4 | 9-2 | 4/1 |
| 7 | Ombudsman | 1 | J & T Gosden | W Buick | 4 | 9-2 | 6/1 |
| 8 | Royal Champion | 6 | K R Burke | C Lee | 7 | 9-2 | 66/1 |
| 9 | See The Fire | 3 | A M Balding | Oisin Murphy | 4 | 8-13 | 5/1 |
| All Odds▸ Los Angeles 9/4 | Anmaat 4/1 | Map Of Stars 4/1 | See The Fire 5/1 | Ombudsman 6/1 | Facteur Cheval 25/1 | Royal Champion 66/1 | Continuous 100/1 | Certain Lad 125/1 | |||||||
Race Analysis ~ 16:20 Ascot ~ Prince Of Wales's Stakes (Group 1)
Going▸ Good to Firm (Good in Places) | Distance▸ 1m 1f 212y | Surface▸ Turf
Key Contenders
- Los Angeles (9/4) ~ Aidan O’Brien’s colt, winner of the 2024 Irish Derby and third in the Arc. Stall 5 is perfect, and Ryan Moore’s tactical brilliance makes him the horse to beat. Short price reflects his Group 1 pedigree.
- Anmaat (4/1) ~ Owen Burrows’ gelding, a Group 1 winner in the 2024 Champion Stakes (1m 2f, soft). Stall 8 is manageable, and Jim Crowley’s experience adds confidence. Loves fast ground and Ascot.
- Map Of Stars (4/1) ~ Fabrice Graffard’s French raider, a Group 2 winner over 1m 2f at Longchamp. Stall 2 allows a ground-saving trip, and James Doyle’s booking signals intent. Proven at this level.
- See The Fire (5/1) ~ Andrew Balding’s filly, second in the 2024 Coronation Stakes and a Group 3 winner. Stall 3 is ideal, and Oisin Murphy’s aggressive riding suits her. Gets a 3lb allowance as a filly.
- Ombudsman (6/1) ~ John & Thady Gosden’s colt, progressive with a Group 3 win over 1m 2f at Newmarket. Stall 1 offers a rail run, and William Buick’s class is a major plus.
📈 Form & Value Ratings (1~5)
| Horse | Rating | Summary |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles | ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆ | Irish Derby winner, Arc third, prime draw. Short price, but Group 1 form makes him the benchmark. |
| Anmaat | ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆ | Champion Stakes winner, loves Ascot. Stall 8 is fine; could challenge if pace suits. |
| Map Of Stars | ⭐⭐⭐☆☆ | French Group 2 winner, stall 2 helps. Needs a career-best to topple the top two. |
| See The Fire | ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆ | Coronation second, 3lb allowance, ideal draw. Value at 5/1 against the colts. |
| Ombudsman | ⭐⭐⭐☆☆ | Progressive, Group 3 winner, stall 1 is a plus. Gosden-Buick combo keeps him in the mix. |
| Facteur Cheval | ⭐⭐☆☆☆ | Group 1 form, but better at 1m. Stall 4 helps, but 25/1 reflects his stretch at this trip. |
| Royal Champion | ⭐☆☆☆☆ | Outclassed at Group 1 level; 66/1 and stall 6 underline his slim chances. |
📊 Trends & Betting Dynamics
- Draw Bias▸ Low to middle draws (1~5) often outperform over Ascot’s round 1m 2f, allowing horses to save ground on the tight bends. High draws (6~9) can win but need a strong pace to avoid wide trips.
- Profile Key▸ Winners typically boast Group 1 form over 1m 2f, often from races like the Derby, Arc, or Champion Stakes. Horses with tactical speed and a strong finish thrive on Ascot’s testing course.
- Trainer Bias▸ O’Brien’s record in Group 1s is unmatched, with multiple Prince Of Wales’s wins. Burrows and Gosden have also struck here, while Graffard’s French raiders demand respect.
- Market Moves▸ Los Angeles leads at 9/4, with Anmaat and Map Of Stars steady at 4/1. See The Fire’s 5/1 is gaining traction due to her allowance and draw.
Conclusion▸ Los Angeles sets a sky-high standard with his Irish Derby win and Arc third, but 9/4 in a 9-runner Group 1 leaves little margin for error. Anmaat’s Champion Stakes victory and Ascot affinity make him a serious threat, while Map Of Stars’ French form adds intrigue. Ombudsman’s progress is notable, but he needs more to topple the elite. See The Fire, with her 3lb allowance and Coronation Stakes form, brings value and a prime draw. The winner will need Group 1 class, a clean run, and the stamina to power through Ascot’s grueling finish.
⭐ Bet Analysis ~ Where's the Edge?
- Los Angeles (9/4)▸ Group 1 winner, perfect draw, Moore aboard. Short price demands a flawless run.
- Anmaat (4/1)▸ Champion Stakes hero, loves fast ground. Stall 8 is workable; could upset if pace holds.
- Map Of Stars (4/1)▸ French Group 2 winner, stall 2 saves ground. Needs a peak effort to match the top two.
- See The Fire (5/1)▸ Coronation second, 3lb allowance, stall 3. Value against the colts; Murphy’s drive seals it.
- Ombudsman (6/1)▸ Group 3 winner, stall 1 helps. Gosden-Buick are class, but he’s a step below the elite.
Final Take▸ See The Fire is the one to beat. Her Coronation Stakes second proves she’s Group 1 quality, and the 3lb filly allowance gives her an edge against the colts. Stall 3 lets Oisin Murphy track the pace, and at 5/1, she’s better value than Los Angeles’ hyped 9/4 or Anmaat’s 4/1. Los Angeles is a monster, but his price is tight, and Anmaat’s high draw could stretch him. Map Of Stars and Ombudsman have claims, but See The Fire’s form, draw, and allowance make her the filly to storm home on Ascot’s 1m 2f.
Recommended Bet▸ 16:20 Ascot: See The Fire (5/1)
| No | Horse | Dr | Trainer | Jockey | Ag | Wt | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arabian Light | 25 | C Appleby | W Buick | 4 | 9-12 | 18/1 |
| 2 | Hi Royal | 6 | K A Ryan | Billy Loughnane | 5 | 9-10 | 28/1 |
| 3 | Wahdan | 24 | J P O'Brien | D McMonagle | 4 | 9-9 | 66/1 |
| 4 | Jeff Koons | 4 | H Al Jehani | Faleh Bughenaim | 5 | 9-9 | 66/1 |
| 5 | Qirat | 21 | R M Beckett | C T Keane | 4 | 9-8 | 9/1 |
| 6 | Ancient Rome | 20 | C Hills | J P Spencer | 6 | 9-8 | 22/1 |
| 7 | Soldier's Empire | 9 | M Botti | N Callan | 4 | 9-7 | 80/1 |
| 8 | Epictetus | 29 | J A Osborne | Saffie Osborne | 5 | 9-7 | 18/1 |
| 9 | Galeron | 19 | C Hills | Jason Watson | 5 | 9-7 | 50/1 |
| 10 | Sean | 23 | J A Osborne | William Carver | 8 | 9-7 | 50/1 |
| 11 | Blue Brother | 22 | A De Mieulle | James McDonald | 4 | 9-6 | 33/1 |
| 12 | Tony Montana | 12 | M L W Bell | D Egan | 5 | 9-5 | 12/1 |
| 13 | La Trinidad | 18 | Roger Fell | Rowan Scott | 8 | 9-4 | 33/1 |
| 14 | The Liffey | 31 | J P O'Brien | R L Moore | 4 | 9-4 | 15/2 |
| 15 | Popmaster | 28 | E Walker | K Shoemark | 7 | 9-3 | 28/1 |
| 16 | Ebt's Guard | 10 | W Muir & C Grassick | Lewis Edmunds | 4 | 9-3 | 28/1 |
| 17 | Magnum Opus | 16 | S & E Crisford | Liam Wright | 4 | 9-3 | 33/1 |
| 18 | Talis Evolvere | 5 | R Hannon | S M Levey | 5 | 9-3 | 40/1 |
| 19 | Bullet Point | 2 | W J Haggas | Tom Marquand | 4 | 9-3 | 11/1 |
| 20 | Silawi | 14 | H Al Jehani | James Doyle | 5 | 9-3 | 25/1 |
| 21 | Urban Lion | 3 | J Channon | Edward Greatrex | 4 | 9-3 | 20/1 |
| 22 | Bopedro | 1 | D O'Meara | D Tudhope | 9 | 9-2 | 50/1 |
| 23 | Fox Legacy | 11 | A M Balding | Oisin Murphy | 4 | 9-2 | 9/1 |
| 24 | Whitcombe Rockstar | 27 | K Burke | Josephine Gordon | 6 | 9-2 | 100/1 |
| 25 | Greek Order | 30 | M L W Bell | C Soumillon | 5 | 9-1 | 14/1 |
| 26 | Toimy Son | 15 | D Menuisier | Callum Shepherd | 6 | 9-1 | 50/1 |
| 27 | My Cloud | 32 | R Varian | S De Sousa | 4 | 9-1 | 4/1 |
| 28 | Sisyphean | 13 | K A Ryan | C Lee | 4 | 9-0 | 18/1 |
| 29 | Tokenomics | 26 | D Marnane | L T McAteer | 4 | 9-0 | 18/1 |
| 30 | Whip Cracker | 33 | R Hughes | David Probert | 4 | 9-0 | 50/1 |
| All Odds▸ My Cloud 4/1 | The Liffey 15/2 | Qirat 9/1 | Fox Legacy 9/1 | Bullet Point 11/1 | Tony Montana 12/1 | Greek Order 14/1 | Epictetus 18/1 | Sisyphean 18/1 | Tokenomics 18/1 | Arabian Light 18/1 | Urban Lion 20/1 | Ancient Rome 22/1 | Silawi 25/1 | Ebt's Guard 28/1 | Hi Royal 28/1 | Popmaster 28/1 | Magnum Opus 33/1 | Blue Brother 33/1 | La Trinidad 33/1 | Talis Evolvere 40/1 | Whip Cracker 50/1 | Sean 50/1 | Bopedro 50/1 | Toimy Son 50/1 | Galeron 50/1 | Wahdan 66/1 | Jeff Koons 66/1 | Soldier's Empire 80/1 | Whitcombe Rockstar 100/1 | |||||||
Race Analysis ~ 17:00 Ascot ~ Royal Hunt Cup (Heritage Handicap)
Going▸ Good to Firm (Good in Places) | Distance▸ 1m (Str) | Surface▸ Turf
Key Contenders
- My Cloud (4/1) ~ Roger Varian’s colt, a progressive 2024 winner over 1m at Newmarket. Stall 32 is high, aligning with the straight-course bias favouring stands’ side. Silvestre De Sousa’s aggressive ride adds firepower.
- The Liffey (15/2) ~ Joseph O’Brien’s colt, a Listed runner-up over 1m at Leopardstown. Stall 31 is another high draw, ideal for the bias, and Ryan Moore’s booking screams intent.
- Qirat (9/1) ~ Ralph Beckett’s colt, a strong winner over 7f at Goodwood and placed in a Group 3. Stall 21 suits, and Colin Keane’s tactical nous is a plus. Handles fast ground well.
- Fox Legacy (9/1) ~ Andrew Balding’s colt, a 2024 handicap winner over 1m at Sandown. Stall 11 is mid-field, offering flexibility, and Oisin Murphy’s class boosts his chances.
- Bullet Point (11/1) ~ William Haggas’ colt, a progressive type with a win over 1m at York. Stall 2 is low, a risk unless the bias shifts, but Tom Marquand’s skill keeps him in play.
📈 Form & Value Ratings (1~5)
| Horse | Rating | Summary |
|---|---|---|
| My Cloud | ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆ | Newmarket form, high draw, De Sousa’s drive. Short price, but bias and class make him a standout. |
| The Liffey | ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆ | Listed form, stall 31, Moore aboard. Strong chance if he handles the big field. |
| Qirat | ⭐⭐⭐☆☆ | Goodwood win, Group 3 form, stall 21. Needs a bit more, but Beckett-Keane are dangerous. |
| Fox Legacy | ⭐⭐⭐☆☆ | Sandown winner, stall 11 offers options. Murphy’s magic keeps him in the frame. |
| Bullet Point | ⭐⭐⭐☆☆ | York win, Haggas’ polish. Low stall 2 is a gamble; needs pace collapse to shine. |
| Tony Montana | ⭐⭐☆☆☆ | Decent handicap form, stall 12 is fine. Needs a career-best to trouble the top tier. |
| Greek Order | ⭐⭐☆☆☆ | Solid form, stall 30 suits bias. Soumillon’s a plus, but others have stronger claims. |
📊 Trends & Betting Dynamics
- Draw Bias▸ High draws (20+) dominate Ascot’s straight 1m, with recent Hunt Cup winners from stalls 28, 23, and 33. Stands’ side (high) has a clear edge, especially on fast ground, though low draws can sneak through if pace collapses.
- Profile Key▸ Winners often have strong handicap or Listed form over 1m, with 4- and 5-year-olds dominating. Hold-up horses thrive, leveraging Ascot’s straight course and big-field chaos.
- Trainer Bias▸ Varian’s record in big handicaps is stellar, while O’Brien’s raiders and Beckett’s improvers often strike. Haggas and Balding are no strangers to Hunt Cup glory.
- Market Moves▸ My Cloud’s 4/1 leads, with The Liffey (15/2) and Qirat (9/1) gaining support. Fox Legacy and Bullet Point attract interest at 9/1 and 11/1 for value hunters.
Conclusion▸ My Cloud’s Newmarket form and stall 32 make him a deserving favourite, but 4/1 in a 30-runner handicap demands perfection. The Liffey’s Listed pedigree and stall 31, paired with Moore’s magic, scream danger. Qirat’s Goodwood win and stall 21 keep him in the hunt, while Fox Legacy and Bullet Point offer value but face draw challenges. This is a high-draw lottery, and the winner will need a plum stall, proven 1m form, and a slick ride to navigate the cavalry charge.
⭐ Bet Analysis ~ Where's the Edge?
- My Cloud (4/1)▸ Stall 32, Varian’s polish, De Sousa’s drive. Short price, but bias and form make him tough to beat.
- The Liffey (15/2)▸ Listed form, stall 31, Moore’s genius. Value against the favourite; big-field nous is key.
- Qirat (9/1)▸ Goodwood winner, stall 21. Beckett-Keane are class, but he needs a touch more.
- Fox Legacy (9/1)▸ Sandown form, stall 11. Murphy’s skill helps, but mid-draw is a gamble.
- Bullet Point (11/1)▸ York winner, Haggas’ touch. Stall 2 risks being buried; needs luck.
Final Take▸ The Liffey is the one to beat. His Listed runner-up effort at Leopardstown proves he’s Group-class, and stall 31 nails the high-draw bias that’s ruled recent Hunt Cups. At 15/2, he’s better value than My Cloud’s hyped 4/1, and Ryan Moore’s tactical masterclass will see him swoop late. Qirat and Fox Legacy have claims, but their draws are less plum, and Bullet Point’s low stall is too risky. The Liffey’s form, draw, and Moore’s magic will conquer Ascot’s straight mile.
Recommended Bet▸ 17:00 Ascot: The Liffey (15/2)
| No | Horse | Dr | Trainer | Jockey | Ag | Wt | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rainbows Edge | 17 | J & T Gosden | W Buick | 4 | 9-12 | 4/1 |
| 2 | Snellen | 20 | G P Cromwell | G F Carroll | 4 | 9-8 | 16/1 |
| 3 | Arolla | 9 | Harry Charlton | C T Keane | 4 | 9-8 | 17/2 |
| 4 | Arisaig | 5 | C Johnston | J P Spencer | 4 | 9-5 | 10/1 |
| 5 | Julia Augusta | 4 | D O'Meara | D Tudhope | 6 | 9-5 | 16/1 |
| 6 | Ambiente Amigo | 3 | James Owen | Elizabeth Gale | 4 | 9-5 | 28/1 |
| 7 | Francophone | 11 | C Johnston | C Soumillon | 4 | 9-5 | 22/1 |
| 8 | Kayhana | 7 | G P Cromwell | D Egan | 5 | 9-3 | 16/1 |
| 9 | Rose Prick | 18 | E Walker | Tom Marquand | 5 | 9-2 | 25/1 |
| 10 | Miss Information | 13 | A M Balding | Oisin Murphy | 4 | 9-1 | 16/1 |
| 11 | Muddy Mooy | 12 | P Attwater | Edward Greatrex | 4 | 9-1 | 28/1 |
| 12 | Independent Expert | 2 | Stephen Thorne | J Kearney | 6 | 9-1 | 28/1 |
| 13 | Ciara Pearl | 16 | D & C Kubler | Jim Crowley | 5 | 8-12 | 28/1 |
| 14 | Kindest Nation | 10 | H Palmer | Harry Davies | 4 | 8-10 | 80/1 |
| 15 | Thelma's Angel | 15 | G Tutty | Rossa Ryan | 4 | 8-10 | 20/1 |
| 16 | Rockymountainway | 6 | C Fellowes | Callum Shepherd | 4 | 8-8 | 25/1 |
| 17 | Serialise | 24 | Mrs J Harrington | S Foley | 4 | 8-7 | 9/1 |
| 18 | Sky Safari | 1 | J R Fanshawe | Saffie Osborne | 4 | 8-6 | 13/2 |
| 19 | Bint Al Daar | 19 | K P De Foy | Ray Dawson | 5 | 8-6 | 40/1 |
| 20 | Queen Of Atlantis | 8 | P W Chapple-Hyam | S D Bowen | 4 | 8-5 | 40/1 |
| 21 | Cheshire Dancer | 23 | H Palmer | David Probert | 4 | 8-5 | 33/1 |
| 22 | Shallow | 14 | R Spencer | Hollie Doyle | 4 | 8-3 | 33/1 |
| 23 | Unassuming | 22 | G Boughey | Jack Callan | 5 | 8-3 | 28/1 |
| 24 | Viennoise | 21 | D O'Meara | Warren Fentiman | 4 | 8-2 | 33/1 |
| All Odds▸ Rainbows Edge 4/1 | Sky Safari 13/2 | Arolla 17/2 | Serialise 9/1 | Arisaig 10/1 | Miss Information 16/1 | Snellen 16/1 | Kayhana 16/1 | Julia Augusta 16/1 | Thelma's Angel 20/1 | Francophone 22/1 | Rose Prick 25/1 | Rockymountainway 25/1 | Independent Expert 28/1 | Ambiente Amigo 28/1 | Unassuming 28/1 | Muddy Mooy 28/1 | Ciara Pearl 28/1 | Viennoise 33/1 | Cheshire Dancer 33/1 | Shallow 33/1 | Bint Al Daar 40/1 | Queen Of Atlantis 40/1 | Kindest Nation 80/1 | |||||||
Race Analysis ~ 17:35 Ascot ~ Kensington Palace Stakes (Fillies' And Mares' Handicap)
Going▸ Good to Firm (Good in Places) | Distance▸ 1m (Str) | Surface▸ Turf
Key Contenders
- Rainbows Edge (4/1) ~ John & Thady Gosden’s filly, unbeaten in two starts, including a 1m handicap win at Newmarket. Stall 17 is solid for the high-draw bias, and William Buick’s booking screams class. Short price reflects her hype.
- Sky Safari (13/2) ~ James Fanshawe’s filly, a 2024 1m winner at Kempton and progressive in handicaps. Stall 1 is a low-draw risk, but Saffie Osborne’s tactical ride could navigate it.
- Arolla (17/2) ~ Harry Charlton’s filly, a 1m winner at Goodwood and placed in a Listed race. Stall 9 offers midfield flexibility, and Colin Keane’s skill is a major plus.
- Serialise (9/1) ~ Jessica Harrington’s filly, a 1m handicap winner at Naas with strong closing speed. Stall 24 is perfect for the high-draw bias, and Shane Foley’s booking adds weight.
- Arisaig (10/1) ~ Charlie Johnston’s filly, a consistent 1m performer with a win at Lingfield. Stall 5 is a low-draw concern, but Jamie Spencer’s hold-up tactics could suit.
📈 Form & Value Ratings (1~5)
| Horse | Rating | Summary |
|---|---|---|
| Rainbows Edge | ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆ | Unbeaten, Newmarket form, stall 17. Short price, but Gosden-Buick make her a serious player. |
| Sky Safari | ⭐⭐⭐☆☆ | Kempton winner, progressive. Stall 1 is risky; needs Osborne’s magic to overcome draw. |
| Arolla | ⭐⭐⭐☆☆ | Goodwood win, Listed form, stall 9. Keane’s class keeps her in the mix; value at 17/2. |
| Serialise | ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆ | Naas winner, stall 24 nails bias. Foley’s ride and 9/1 odds offer edge over favourite. |
| Arisaig | ⭐⭐☆☆☆ | Lingfield win, consistent. Stall 5 is a gamble; Spencer’s tactics could salvage it. |
| Miss Information | ⭐⭐☆☆☆ | Decent form, stall 13 is fine. Murphy’s skill helps, but others have stronger claims. |
| Snellen | ⭐⭐☆☆☆ | Solid Irish form, stall 20 suits. Needs a peak effort to trouble the top tier. |
📊 Trends & Betting Dynamics
- Draw Bias▸ High draws (15+) dominate Ascot’s straight 1m, mirroring the Royal Hunt Cup, with recent winners favouring stands’ side. Low draws (1~8) struggle unless watering shifts bias or pace collapses.
- Profile Key▸ Winners often have progressive handicap form over 1m, with 4-year-olds dominating. Hold-up fillies with strong closing speed thrive in big fields on fast ground.
- Trainer Bias▸ Gosden’s record in Ascot handicaps is elite, while Harrington’s Irish raiders and Charlton’s improvers often shine. Fanshawe’s knack for big-field upsets adds intrigue.
- Market Moves▸ Rainbows Edge’s 4/1 leads, with Sky Safari (13/2) and Arolla (17/2) steady. Serialise’s 9/1 is gaining traction for her draw and form.
Conclusion▸ Rainbows Edge’s unbeaten record and stall 17 make her a worthy favourite, but 4/1 in a 24-runner handicap is tight. Sky Safari’s progress is tempting, but stall 1 is a major hurdle. Arolla’s Goodwood win and midfield draw offer value, while Arisaig’s low draw risks trouble. Serialise, with her Naas victory and stall 24, is perfectly poised to exploit the high-draw bias. The winner will need a golden stall, proven 1m form, and a sharp ride to cut through this chaotic field.
⭐ Bet Analysis ~ Where's the Edge?
- Rainbows Edge (4/1)▸ Unbeaten, stall 17, Gosden-Buick class. Short price demands a perfect run.
- Sky Safari (13/2)▸ Progressive, but stall 1 is a killer unless bias flips. Osborne’s skill keeps her alive.
- Arolla (17/2)▸ Goodwood win, stall 9. Keane’s ride offers value, but high draws have the edge.
- Serialise (9/1)▸ Naas winner, stall 24, Foley’s nous. Perfect setup; value against the favourite.
- Arisaig (10/1)▸ Consistent, but stall 5 is tough. Spencer’s tactics might not be enough.
Final Take▸ Serialise is the filly to beat. Her Naas handicap win showcased strong closing speed, and stall 24 is tailor-made for Ascot’s high-draw bias on the straight mile. At 9/1, she’s better value than Rainbows Edge’s hyped 4/1, and Shane Foley’s tactical ride will see her storm home late. Sky Safari’s low draw is too risky, and Arolla’s midfield stall doesn’t match Serialise’s stands side advantage. Arisaig’s form is solid, but her draw dims her shine. Serialise has the tools to conquer this cavalry charge.
Recommended Bet▸ 17:35 Ascot: Serialise (9/1)
| No | Horse | Dr | Trainer | Jockey | Ag | Wt | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ardisia (IRE) | 3 | H Palmer | Oisin Murphy | 2 | 9-5 | 35/1 |
| 2 | Azizam | 23 | K R Burke | S H James | 2 | 9-5 | 20/1 |
| 3 | Beach Partee | 16 | W J Knight | N Callan | 2 | 9-5 | 150/1 |
| 4 | Better And Better (IRE) | 21 | A Keatley | P J McDonald | 2 | 9-5 | 40/1 |
| 5 | Call Me By My Name | 15 | James Horton | A J Farragher | 2 | 9-5 | 100/1 |
| 6 | Dickensian | 17 | K A Ryan | S A Gray | 2 | 9-5 | 28/1 |
| 7 | First Approach (IRE) | 5 | A P O'Brien | W M Lordan | 2 | 9-5 | 10/1 |
| 8 | Gaga Mate (IRE) | 9 | George Scott | Callum Shepherd | 2 | 9-5 | 16/1 |
| 9 | Gorey Gold (IRE) | 11 | J G Portman | Rob Hornby | 2 | 9-5 | 40/1 |
| 10 | Havana Hurricane | 8 | Eve Johnson Houghton | Charles Bishop | 2 | 9-5 | 9/1 |
| 11 | Jan Steen | 13 | K R Burke | D Egan | 2 | 9-5 | 12/1 |
| 12 | Kamakameleon | 4 | Dylan Cunha | Tom Marquand | 2 | 9-5 | 50/1 |
| 13 | Kansas (IRE) | 24 | A P O'Brien | Non Runner | 2 | 9-5 | 10/1 |
| 14 | Logi Bear (IRE) | 10 | R Hannon | S M Levey | 2 | 9-5 | 28/1 |
| 15 | Nuevo Slovo (IRE) | 19 | John O'Donoghue | C T Keane | 2 | 9-5 | 66/1 |
| 16 | Old Is Gold (IRE) | 7 | A M Balding | James Doyle | 2 | 9-5 | 11/2 |
| 17 | Rogue Legend | 6 | P Twomey | W J Lee | 2 | 9-5 | 5/1 |
| 18 | Rogue Supremacy | 12 | D O'Meara | D Tudhope | 2 | 9-5 | 6/1 |
| 19 | Shaman Champion (IRE) | 1 | R Hughes | Billy Loughnane | 2 | 9-5 | 18/1 |
| 20 | Sovereign Spell (IRE) | 18 | Raphael Freire | Rossa Ryan | 2 | 9-5 | 28/1 |
| 21 | Tough Critic (USA) | 14 | George Weaver | Flavien Prat | 2 | 9-5 | 14/1 |
| 22 | Utmost Respect (IRE) | 22 | R A Fahey | O J Orr | 2 | 9-5 | 9/1 |
| 23 | Wyle Cop (USA) | 20 | Jack Jones | Dylan Hogan | 2 | 9-5 | 33/1 |
| 24 | Oasis Diamond | 2 | M & D Easterby | D Allan | 2 | 9-0 | 150/1 |
| All Odds▸ Rogue Legend 5/1 | Old Is Gold 11/2 | Rogue Supremacy 6/1 | Havana Hurricane 9/1 | Utmost Respect 9/1 | Kansas 10/1 | First Approach 10/1 | Jan Steen 12/1 | Tough Critic 14/1 | Gaga Mate 16/1 | Shaman Champion 18/1 | Azizam 20/1 | Sovereign Spell 28/1 | Logi Bear 28/1 | Dickensian 28/1 | Wyle Cop 33/1 | Ardisia 35/1 | Better And Better 40/1 | Gorey Gold 40/1 | Kamakameleon 50/1 | Nuevo Slovo 66/1 | Call Me By My Name 100/1 | Oasis Diamond 150/1 | Beach Partee 150/1 | |||||||
Race Analysis ~ 18:10 Ascot ~ Windsor Castle Stakes (Listed)
Going▸ Good to Firm (Good in Places) | Distance▸ 5f | Surface▸ Turf
Key Contenders
- Rogue Legend (5/1) ~ Paddy Twomey’s colt, a debut winner over 5f at Cork by 2 lengths. Stall 6 is low but workable, and Billy Lee’s booking adds class. Market leader, but price is tight for a big-field sprint.
- Old Is Gold (11/2) ~ Andrew Balding’s colt, a 5f winner at Newbury with a sharp turn of foot. Stall 7 is low-ish, but James Doyle’s tactical nous keeps him in play. Solid form but needs luck.
- Rogue Supremacy (6/1) ~ David O’Meara’s colt, a 5f debut winner at Ripon. Stall 12 offers midfield flexibility, and Daniel Tudhope’s experience is a plus. Strong contender with a fair price.
- Havana Hurricane (9/1) ~ Eve Johnson Houghton’s colt, a 5f winner at Salisbury with blistering speed. Stall 8 is manageable, and Charles Bishop’s aggressive ride suits this test.
- Utmost Respect (9/1) ~ Richard Fahey’s colt, a 5f winner at Beverley and runner-up in a Listed race. Stall 22 nails the high-draw bias, and Oisin Orr’s booking boosts his chances.
📈 Form & Value Ratings (1~5)
| Horse | Rating | Summary |
|---|---|---|
| Rogue Legend | ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆ | Cork winner, Twomey’s polish. Stall 6 is risky; 5/1 is short for big-field chaos. |
| Old Is Gold | ⭐⭐⭐☆☆ | Newbury win, Doyle’s class. Stall 7 needs luck; solid but not standout value. |
| Rogue Supremacy | ⭐⭐⭐☆☆ | Ripon winner, stall 12 offers options. Tudhope’s ride keeps him dangerous. |
| Havana Hurricane | ⭐⭐⭐☆☆ | Salisbury speed, stall 8 is fine. Bishop’s drive makes him a live threat. |
| Utmost Respect | ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆ | Beverley win, Listed form, stall 22 nails bias. 9/1 offers edge over favourites. |
| First Approach | ⭐⭐☆☆☆ | O’Brien’s colt, decent form. Stall 5 is tough; needs more to shine. |
| Jan Steen | ⭐⭐☆☆☆ | Burke’s colt, solid form. Stall 13 is okay, but others have stronger claims. |
📊 Trends & Betting Dynamics
- Draw Bias▸ High draws (15+) dominate Ascot’s straight 5f, with recent Windsor Castle winners from stalls 20, 22, and 26. Stands’ side (high) has a clear edge on fast ground, while low draws (1~8) need a pace collapse or watering to compete.
- Profile Key▸ Winners typically have 5f debut wins or Listed form, with raw speed and big-field experience key. Hold-up colts with a high draw thrive in this frantic sprint.
- Trainer Bias▸ O’Brien’s juveniles often strike, but Twomey’s targeted raiders and Fahey’s sprint specialists are dangerous. Balding and Burke have strong Ascot 2yo records.
- Market Moves▸ Rogue Legend leads at 5/1, with Old Is Gold (11/2) and Rogue Supremacy (6/1) steady. Utmost Respect and Havana Hurricane at 9/1 attract value hunters.
Conclusion▸ Rogue Legend’s Cork win and Twomey’s prep make him a classy favourite, but 5/1 is skinny in a 24-runner sprint, and stall 6 risks traffic. Old Is Gold’s Newbury form is solid, but stall 7 is a gamble. Rogue Supremacy and Havana Hurricane have the speed and draws to contend, but Utmost Respect’s Beverley win, Listed placing, and stall 22 align perfectly with the high-draw bias. The winner will need blistering pace, a plum stall, and the grit to surge through Ascot’s 5f furnace.
⭐ Bet Analysis ~ Where's the Edge?
- Rogue Legend (5/1)▸ Cork winner, Twomey’s class. Stall 6 is a concern; price is tight for chaos.
- Old Is Gold (11/2)▸ Newbury speed, Doyle’s skill. Stall 7 needs luck; not enough value.
- Rogue Supremacy (6/1)▸ Ripon win, stall 12. Tudhope’s ride is a plus, but high draws rule.
- Havana Hurricane (9/1)▸ Salisbury speed, stall 8. Bishop’s drive keeps him live, but bias favours higher.
- Utmost Respect (9/1)▸ Beverley win, Listed form, stall 22. Fahey-Orr and bias make him the pick.
Final Take▸ Utmost Respect is the colt to beat. His Beverley 5f win and Listed runner-up effort prove he’s got the speed and class for this test, and stall 22 is gold dust for Ascot’s high-draw bias. At 9/1, he’s better value than Rogue Legend’s hyped 5/1 or Old Is Gold’s 11/2 with a dodgy draw. Rogue Supremacy and Havana Hurricane are dangers, but their stalls don’t match Utmost Respect’s stands’ side advantage. Richard Fahey’s colt, with Oisin Orr’s sharp ride, will blaze home to cap Day 2.
Recommended Bet▸ 18:10 Ascot: Utmost Respect (9/1)
| Royal Ascot Results - 18 June 2025. Going: good to firm |
14:30
1. 23 True Love 9/4F2. 7 Flowerhead 100/1 3. 11 Lennilu 11/2 Tote Win 3.40 Places 1.40, 9.85, 2.50 Exacta: 241.80 CSF: 350.35 Tricast: 1226.03 Trifecta: 3159.30 Winning Jockey: R L Moore Winning Trainer: A P O'Brien Distances: 1 1/4 length, 1/2 length True Love 9/4 F 23 ran Non Runners 1 6 |
15:05
1. 3 Carmers 9/22. 5 Furthur 20/1 3. 8 Rahiebb 9/1 Tote Win 5.50 Places 1.70, 4.75, 3.20 Exacta: 80.00 CSF: 98.03 Tricast: 780.29 Trifecta: 556.50 Winning Jockey: W J Lee Winning Trainer: P Twomey Distances: 3/4 length, Head Pinhole 4/1 JF Asmarani 4/1 JF 13 ran |
15:40
1. 2 Crimson Advocate 13/22. 1 Cinderella's Dream 5/4F Tote Win 7.75 Places 2.20, 1.15 Exacta: 21.30 CSF: 14.37 Tricast: 49.63 Trifecta: 102.30 Winning Jockey: James McDonald Winning Trainer: J & T Gosden Distances: 1 3/4 length Cinderella's Dream 5/4 F 7 ran Non Runners 3 |
16:20
1. 7 Ombudsman 7/12. 1 Anmaat 5/1 3. 9 See The Fire 7/2 Tote Win 8.40 Places 1.95, 1.55, 1.70 Exacta: 47.30 CSF: 39.20 Tricast: 139.67 Trifecta: 130.90 Winning Jockey: William Buick Winning Trainer: J & T Gosden Distances: 2 lengths, 2 1/2 lengths Los Angeles 13/8 F 8 ran Non Runners 2 |
17:00
1. 27 My Cloud 3/1F2. 19 Bullet Point 11/1 3. 22 Bopedro 50/1 4. 25 Greek Order 22/1 Tote Win 4.15 Places 1.65, 3.10, 12.60, 6.80 Exacta: 70.60 CSF: 32.60 Tricast: 1554.20 Trifecta: 3859.40 Winning Jockey: S De Sousa Winning Trainer: R Varian Distances: 3/4 length, 1/2 length, Neck My Cloud 3/1 F 30 ran |
17:35
1. 10 Miss Information 11/12. 2 Snellen 25/1 3. 21 Cheshire Dancer 20/1 4. 11 Muddy Mooy 33/1 Tote Win 15.30 Places 3.60, 8.95, 5.20, 7.40 Exacta: 513.10 CSF: 277.39 Tricast: 5509.50 Trifecta: 9540.60 Winning Jockey: Oisin Murphy Winning Trainer: A M Balding Distances: 1 length, Head, 3/4 length Rainbows Edge 3/1 F 23 ran Non Runners 20 |
18:10
1. 10 Havana Hurricane 7/12. 6 Dickensian 20/1 3. 2 Azizam 7/1 Tote Win 11.20 Places 3.05, 5.40, 2.15 Exacta: 307.10 CSF: 154.85 Tricast: 337.60 Trifecta: 1323.40 Winning Jockey: Mr C Bishop Winning Trainer: Eve Johnson Houghton Distances: 1 1/2 length, 1/2 length Old Is Gold 7/2 F 23 ran Non Runners 13 |
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