SANDRACER.COM - Kempton Bets - Sat April 11 2009

I see you have gone for Smokey Rye in the 2:40 do you think it's over priced?

I'm almost tempted to bung a few quid on e/w myself but think I might just watch it run.

Comment Posted By  Ian - 11 April 2009 at 12:50 

I would not say it'd overpriced Ian. It's a fair enough gamble for me though.

For Example: It's best run ever is a good 2 seconds slower than the jolly Bortobougie over the distance at Lingfield. Plus it would recieve a stone from most of these if it were a handicap.

However, i'll take my chances at silly odds on Smokey Rye, because for me, 6 of the field of 8 would ideally needed to have run a more recent race than they have done.

I'd rathre bet reduced stakes and watch it lose, than bet nothing and watch it jog passed tired horses who have cut each other's throats racing each other too hard early.

Now you know why I don't write form reviews for my bets. I am of the opinion, my reviews would be end up more convoluted than the form itself..

Cheers.

Comment Posted By  Sandracer - 11 April 2009 at 13:04 

OK cheers, That answers my question and more...I fancy Dixey to blast out and make all despite not having run for 313 days, and I'm hoping for a place at least...maybe I should put your selection and mine in a reverse F/C...lol

Comment Posted By  Ian - 11 April 2009 at 13:15 

I have never written so many typos in 1 comment. could'nt even get the word past correct. It really is a disgrace. My apologies.

Comment Posted By  Sandracer - 11 April 2009 at 13:19 

No worries, I had no trouble reading it, anyway you're no worse than my dad as he types words as they sound...lol...whenever he writes a note it always make me laugh...ha

Comment Posted By  Ian - 11 April 2009 at 13:25 

Kempton 14:05

Shortlist: Extraterrestrial, Saltagioo, Cape Hawk

With a 3-0 record on the All Weather and a wide draw, winning is not impossible but highly improbable for Extraterrestrial. Saltagioo is on an upward curve and course and distance specialist Cape Hawk is always one to back first time out after a break.

Dutch: Saltagioo and Cape Hawk @ best price

Kempton 15:45

Shortlist: Al Muheer, Red Somerset, Flowing Cape

I was at Bath to watch the recent run of my virtual stable horse Red Somerset. In discussion with the head lad after the race, he would only be entered today if there were no adverse effects. Better over 8f, in a race where I predict a fast pace his stamina may come into play at the end or he may empty after a long winter campaign.

Flowing Cape is the dark horse and has that “Listed class in Handicap Company” feel about him. Though top weight, Al Muheer ran well behind Red Somerset two starts ago and is well drawn.

Dutch: Red Somerset and Flowing Cape @ best price
Danger: Al Muheer

Kempton 16:15

Shortlist: Royal Dignitary, Alfresco, Prince Of Thebes, Forgotten Voice

After a 535 day absence, why is Forgotten Voice a very short priced favourite?

Royal Dignitary will dominate the pace, however bitter experience has taught me that it extremely difficult to make all at Kempton over 8f. Recent form suggests that Alfresco is primed for a win and as the race unfolds pace wise he should from stall 8 get first dibs on Royal Dignitary in the final furlong.

If the pace collapses completely then I like the look of Prince Of Thebes who ran a quick time recently and drops in class today.

Dutch: Alfresco and Prince Of Thebes @ best price

Comment Posted By  slipperytoad - 11 April 2009 at 13:34 

Dutching is betting on more than one horse to win isn't it?

So if I had a horse at 4/1
and another at 3/1

what sort or wager would I need to put on to see a return?

Comment Posted By  Ian - 11 April 2009 at 13:39 

correct..

http://www.oddschecker.com/betting-tools/dutching-calculator.html

Comment Posted By  slipperytoad - 11 April 2009 at 13:50 

Dutching is betting more than 1 horse to win the same amount, whoever wins.

At 3's and 4's, you could bet £1.25 on the 3/1, and £1 on the 4/1, both would return £5 if a winner. Just over a 6/5 shot the pair.

Comment Posted By  Sandracer - 11 April 2009 at 13:53 

OK thanks,
That's great.

Good luck with your selections today.

Regards
Ian

Comment Posted By  Ian - 11 April 2009 at 13:55 

Hello Slipper.

I agree Royal Dignitary is there to be shot at. I can see something catching it up with a furlong to go, but not being able to get away from it, and then I hope to watch Royal Dignitary creep back up the rail.

We shall see!

Cheers.

Comment Posted By  Sandracer - 11 April 2009 at 14:02 

Ours never ran very well in the 1st there Slipper.

If Checklow had won, I think I might have screamed out aloud. If it were'nt for the long break, i'd have backed it.

Looks like possible hurdler material to me

Comment Posted By  Sandracer - 11 April 2009 at 14:14 

In the 3.45 depending on the market, I may punt my danger and your selection Al Muheer.

In the 4.15 I thought about playing the exacta with Royal Dignitary in the win/place hole (just in case he holds on to win) but it was only paying 8/1 or less if Forgotten Voice was placed 2nd.

BTW what do you plan to do for the summer with no A/W racing, Kempton Wednesdays?

Comment Posted By  slipperytoad - 11 April 2009 at 14:57 

I was planning on going to work less, go out more, get fit and maybe build a few websites.

I dare'nt get into reading the flat form. It's not been a good all-weather season for me and i'm pretty pissed about how many times i've had to replenish the betting pot.

I think the break might do me good.

What about you?

Comment Posted By  Sandracer - 11 April 2009 at 15:14 

Keep betting on the odd A/W card during the summer to refine process. Focus on building my virtual stable from races ran at grade 1 courses using the following process.

http://www.slipperytoad.co.uk/virtual-stable/

Plus recently moved a hop step and a jump away from Bath racecourse, become a member so will attend all their meetings..

Comment Posted By  slipperytoad - 11 April 2009 at 16:02 

You could'nt have been far away from backing Something at 33's Slipper.

Well handicapped, previously won first time out on the AW after a long break.

When it rains it pours.

Comment Posted By  Sandracer - 11 April 2009 at 16:05 

no even close..

{after timing = on} The only pointer I could note in reviewing pre-race notes was that he was well drawn and a hold up performer in a fast paced race {after timing = off}

Comment Posted By  slipperytoad - 11 April 2009 at 16:32 

Viva Vettori
good speed fig/likes track/+good jockey like you sand racer i fancy this for a win.GB

Comment Posted By  Anonymous - 11 April 2009 at 17:38 

Let's hope the rest of the field agree with us GB..

Cheers.

Comment Posted By  Sandracer - 11 April 2009 at 17:49