SANDRACER.COM ~ ALL WEATHER RACING BLOG

Kempton AW Code Breaker

Kempton on the All Weather this evening is a 9 race card. There are 6 handicaps to have a look at. I will attempt to crack the Kempton Park All Weather code in as few words as possible.

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❖ Jockeys ❖ I will be concentrating on 30 yr old top jockey Oisin Murphy (𝕏) ~ who has 6 rides ~ for this evening's betting.

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❖ Trainers ❖ One could argue ommitting the Gosden pair who are ridden by Buick is folly. They are both low priced favourites. I will be taking them on.

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❖ Draw Bias ❖ Draw considerations come into play sharply at Kempton. I will be looking for a low draw (1~5) in all races up to a mile.

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❖ Bet Selection Considerations ❖

• ❖ If anything Murphy is on is well drawn, give it a close look on form.
• ❖ Also beware anything that has been thrown into a race with a clear and obvious advantage.

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Kempton AW Jockey Runners

Jockey OISIN MURPHY

• Date | Race | Type | Distance | Trainer | HORSE
• 1 Oct 2025 4:23 Kempton Maiden 1m 3f John Gosden NASEBAH
• 1 Oct 2025 4:55 Kempton Stakes 6f Andrew Balding LIFEGUARD
• 1 Oct 2025 5:30 Kempton Handicap 7f David Evans LADY WINGALONG (Non Runner)
• 1 Oct 2025 6:00 Kempton Stakes 6f Andrew Balding MARCHOGION
• 1 Oct 2025 6:30 Kempton Handicap 1m 3f S B Suroor FIRST VIEW ✅
• 1 Oct 2025 7:00 Kempton Handicap 1m S B Suroor OLYMPIC CANDLE ✅

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Kempton Betting Analysis

6:30 Kempton ❖ 1m 3f C4 Handicap ❖ First View (11/2) is upped in trip today which he looks to be needing ~ and Murphy has been booked to ride. Seems to have a winning chance to me.

6:30 Kempton ~ Win Bet: 11/2 First View (4th 4/1)

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6:30 Kempton ❖ 1m C4 Handicap ❖ Olympic Candle (4/1) is running off a 200 day break. I doubt that will stop this Suroor horse running his race. I make him a clear fav running over a mile in a C4 carrying 8lb less than his best.

6:30 Kempton ~ Win Bet: 4/1 Olympic Candle (Won 3/1f)

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Cracking The Newcastle AW Code

❖ Tues Sept 30 2025

Newcastle AW Code Breaker

This evening it's an 8 race card from Newcastle. 6 of the races are handicaps including one for 2yo's in the nursery hcp. The other two races are a fillies novice and a maiden. I will be attempting to Crack The All Weather Code At Newcastle in as few words as possible.

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❖ Jockeys ❖ For this evening's meeting I will be focusing on anything ridden by in a handicap by PJ MacDonald (𝕏).

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❖ Trainer ❖ No particular trainer catches my eye.

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❖ Draw Bias ❖ The draw bias at Newcastle is non existent, especially on the straight course, so nothing to see there.

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Newcastle AW Jockey Statistics

Jockey PJ MACDONALD

• Date | Race | Type | Distance | Trainer | Horse
• 30 Sep 2025 5:30 Newcastle Handicap 2m Evan Willans CRACKER STAR
• 30 Sep 2025 6:00 Newcastle Stakes 6f Ed Walker ENCORE
• 30 Sep 2025 7:00 Newcastle 2yo Nursery Hcp 7f Richard Hughes SMARTANCK
• 30 Sep 2025 8:00 Newcastle Handicap 7f John Mackie SOLD OUT
• 30 Sep 2025 8:30 Newcastle Handicap 6f John Mackie BOMB SQUAD ✅

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Newcastle Betting Analysis

8:30 Newcastle ❖ 6f C6 Hcp ❖ Bomb Squad (17/2) posted a very good run last time out. He might just be at his best right now. So, he is drawn wide in trap one. That means he gets a trouble free break to his left, therefore an easy race position out wide if PJ Macdonald doesn't track across to the rail. That gives him a clear run up the 6f straight course to mow them down late on with a well timed run, uninterrupted by the scrimmaging for positions an space on the inside.

The 10/1 drift our from an overnight 6's is a very backable price, all things considered. If he nicks it, it'll not be by much. Win only.

8:30 Newc ~ Win Bet: 10/1 Bomb Squad (3rd 7/1)

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Southwell AW Code Breaker

My attempt to crack the AW code at Southwell on this evening's 8 race card that features 5 handicaps, one of those is a fillies only hcp ~ and 3 novice stake races races, in as few words as possible.

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❖ Jockeys ❖ I will be concentrating on deciphering the Rossa Ryan (𝕏) ridden handicap rides (3) ~ in particular for this evening.

Oisin Murphy is also at Southwell this evening. He does not have a great record here, but he's always worth a look. A perilous jockey to ignore at present.

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❖ Draw Bias ❖ The draw bias at Southwell is non existent. Back who you like wherever they're drawn. If backing any front runners, pay close attention to whether they'll actually get home up the slightly uphill 1.5f finish.

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Southwell AW Jockey Quick Statistics

Jockey ROSSA RYAN

• Date | Race | Type | Distance | Horse | Trainer
• 29 Sep 2025 5:00 Southwell Handicap 2m Harry Charlton BIG WIN
• 29 Sep 2025 5:30 Southwell Stakes 7f Bill Knight CAPRICORN BELLE
• 29 Sep 2025 6:00 Southwell Stakes 6f Jim Tate ROSE OF HONOUR
• 29 Sep 2025 6:30 Southwell Handicap 6f Tom Clover LADY MODENA
• 29 Sep 2025 7:30 Southwell Handicap 1m Devid Loughnane MY BROTHER MIKE ✅

Jockey OISIN MURPHY

• Date | Race | Type | Distance | Horse | Trainer
• 29 Sep 2025 5:30 Southwell Stakes 7f James Ferguson ART GALLERY
• 29 Sep 2025 6:30 Southwell Handicap 6f Denis Coakley PHOENIX MOON ✅
• 29 Sep 2025 7:00 Southwell Handicap 5f David O'Meara ZIGGY'S TRITON ✅
• 29 Sep 2025 7:30 Southwell Handicap 1m Denis Coakley MY AMBITION

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Southwell Betting Analysis

6:30 Southwell ❖ 6f C5 Fillies Hcp ❖ Pheonix Moon (3/1f) won well last time out under Murphy.

Conclusion: Easy winner last time out, will the 5lb rise in the weights stop her today? I think maybe not..

6:30 South ~ Win Bet: 3/1f Pheonix Moon (2nd 7/2jf)

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7:00 Southwell ❖ 5f C5 Hcp ❖ Ziggys Triton (6/1) is running well at present.

Conclusion: Won't be far away with Oisin Murphy aboard. May well just win it outright. The 6/1 on offer is very reasonable.

7:00 South ~ Win Bet: 6/1 Ziggys Triton (2nd 15/2)

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7:30 Southwell ❖ 5f C5 Hcp ❖ My Brother Mike (8/1) is plenty good enough for these.

Conclusion: Will be played late by Ryan. Has the ability and a decent enough mark to run past them all in the last furlong if things fall right in front of him.

7:30 South ~ Win Bet: 8/1 My Brother Mike (Unp 9/1)

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Cracking The Newcastle AW Code

❖ Sunday Sept 28 2025

Newcastle AW Code Breaker

This sunday we have an AW meeting from Newcastle to get our teeth into. 9 races, 7 handicaps. I will be attempting to Crack The All Weather Code At Gosforth Park ~ Newcastle in as few words as possible.

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❖ Jockeys ❖ For this evening's meeting I will be focusing on anything ridden by in a handicap by top Newcastle jockey Paul Mulrennan (𝕏). I am also looking out for any of the Scotsman's Daniel Tudhope (𝕏) rides, because he has a 43% strike rate this season at Newcastle, with 11 wins from 26 races, which is a phenomenal return, especially as he's 39, not an 18yr old 7lb claimer with an advantage.

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❖ Trainer ❖ No particular trainer catches my eye, unless you include Dave O'Meara who Tudhope rides all his entries for today, so the jockey stats cover that angle for me.

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❖ Draw Bias ❖ The draw bias at Newcastle is non existent, especially on the straight course, so nothing to see there.

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Newcastle AW Jockey Statistics

Jockey PAUL MULRENNAN

• Date | Race | Type | Distance | Trainer | Horse
• 28 Sep 2025 3:20 Newcastle Handicap 1m 4f Simon Whitaker TIBERIO FORCE
• 28 Sep 2025 4:30 Newcastle Handicap 1m 4f Stella Barclay SKYCUTTER
• 28 Sep 2025 6:15 Newcastle Handicap 1m Sam England MR MISTOFFELEES ✅
• 28 Sep 2025 6:45 Newcastle Handicap 7f Mile Herrington NIKOVO ✅

Jockey DANIEL TUDHOPE

• Date | Race | Type | Distance | Trainer | Horse
• 28 Sep 2025 3:20 Newcastle Handicap 1m 4f Dave O'Meara SPRING FESTIVAL ✅
• 28 Sep 2025 3:55 Newcastle Handicap 1m 2f Dave O'Meara BLUE FOR YOU ✅
• 28 Sep 2025 6:15 Newcastle Handicap 1m Dave O'Meara ZRYAN (Non Runner)
• 28 Sep 2025 6:45 Newcastle Handicap 7f Dave O'Meara AKKADIAN THUNDER

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Newcastle Betting Analysis

3:20 Newcastle ❖ 1m 2f C6 Hcp ❖ Spring Festival (20/1) has been overlooked by the layers. Upped in trip, down to a dangerous mark, he could lead these all the way and nick it if they don't keep an eye on him up the front under Tudhope. Win only, small stakes.

3:20 Newc ~ Win Bet: 20/1 Spring Festival (Unp 28/1)

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3:55 Newcastle ❖ 1m 2f C4 Hcp ❖ Blue For You (16/1) is a once 100 rated horse ~ now down to 84. Also upped in trip by 2f, down in grade to a C4, first run on Tapeta. So obviously one knows if he will win, but he has the ability, so the 16/1 on offer is a reasonable betting proposition to small stakes, win only.

3:55 Newc ~ Win Bet: 16/1 Blue For You

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6:15 Newcastle ❖ 1m C4 Hcp ❖ Mr Mistoffelees (8/1) with Mulrennan aboard in a C4 AW hcp is a possible winning proposition at a reaonable price, even though he's one for 25 on the flat. He's got 7 places from 11 runs this season in arguably tougher races than this. I wouldn't as a bookie, want to give you better than 5/1, because you'd kill me with the EW angle, so the 8's is worth a pound win of any punters dough in my opinion. 11/1 is available on the exchanges btw.

6:15 Newc ~ Win Bet: 8/1 Mr Mistoffelees (Unp 5/1)

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6:45 Newcastle ❖ 7f C2 Hcp ❖ Nikovo (12/1) is a dangerous AW performer on his day. Plenty capable enough of winning this outright under Mulrennan at double figure odds.

I believe the price is inflated by the belief put forward by race readers and pundits, that Newcastle has a high draw bias on the straight course. It does not. It is handy postionally wise, but not a deal breaker if you don't.

If you're good enough, you can win from a low draw over a sprint here no problem, especially if you're a hold up horse with a kick finish. Sometimes they get clogged up down the rail and out wide is the place to be. The 12/1 is an excellent price imo.

6:45 Newc ~ Win Bet: 12/1 Nikovo (Unp 14/1)

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Southwell AW Code Breaker

My attempt to crack the AW code at Southwell on this evening's 9 race card that features 7 handicaps, one of those is a nursery hcp ~ and 2 maiden's races, in as few words as possible.

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❖ Jockeys ❖ I will be concentrating on deciphering the Daniel Muscutt (𝕏) handicap rides (6) ~ in particular for this evening.

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❖ Draw Bias ❖ The draw bias at Southwell is non existent. Back who you like wherever they're drawn. If backing any front runners, pay close attention to whether they'll actually get home up the slightly uphill 1.5f finish.

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Southwell AW Jockey Quick Statistics

Jockey HECTOR CROUCH

• Date | Race | Type | Distance | Horse | Trainer
• 27 Sep 2025 4:19 Southwell Nursery Hcp 5f Michael Bell RAJAK
• 27 Sep 2025 4:50 Southwell Maiden 5f Richard Hannon SINJ
• 27 Sep 2025 5:25 Southwell Maiden 1m 4f Charles Hill SHUMUS
• 27 Sep 2025 6:00 Southwell Handicap 1m Kevin De Foy HOLLY HOLY
• 27 Sep 2025 7:00 Southwell Handicap 6f Mick Murphy JESSE LUC ✅
• 27 Sep 2025 7:30 Southwell Handicap 5f Michael Dods NELSON GAY ✅
• 27 Sep 2025 8:00 Southwell Handicap 1m 6f Tom Lacey BUXTED REEL
• 27 Sep 2025 8:30 Southwell Handicap 1m 4f Jim Ferguson PHRYGIA

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Southwell Betting Analysis

7:00 Southwell ❖ 6f C5 Hcp ❖ Jesse Luc (5/1) has a good Southwell record.

Conclusion: A tad high in the weights at 74, but that's because he's running well. Now just squeezing back into a C5, with Muscutt aboard, drawn in trap 1 ~ I predict he'll just nick this..

7:00 South ~ Win Bet: 5/1 Jesse Luc (Unp 4/1)

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7:30 Southwell ❖ 5f C6 Hcp ❖ Nelson Gay (14/1) is on a winnable mark for sure.

Conclusion: Should be about 7/1 tops. Muscutt might just be able to grab a decent priced winner from back to front, if the gaps appear just right late on.

7:30 South ~ Win Bet: 14/1 Nelson Gay

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