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Cracking The Southwell AW Code ~ Sat Sept 27 2025

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Cracking The Southwell AW Code

❖ Saturday September 27 2025

Southwell AW Code Breaker

My attempt to crack the AW code at Southwell on this evening's 9 race card that features 7 handicaps, one of those is a nursery hcp ~ and 2 maiden's races, in as few words as possible.

❖ Jockeys ❖ I will be concentrating on deciphering the Daniel Muscutt (𝕏) handicap rides (6) ~ in particular for this evening.

❖ Draw Bias ❖ The draw bias at Southwell is non existent. Back who you like wherever they're drawn. If backing any front runners, pay close attention to whether they'll actually get home up the slightly uphill 1.5f finish.

Southwell AW Jockey Quick Statistics

Jockey HECTOR CROUCH

  • Date | Race | Type | Distance | Horse | Trainer
  • 27 Sep 2025 4:19 Southwell Nursery Hcp 5f Michael Bell RAJAK
  • 27 Sep 2025 4:50 Southwell Maiden 5f Richard Hannon SINJ
  • 27 Sep 2025 5:25 Southwell Maiden 1m 4f Charles Hill SHUMUS
  • 27 Sep 2025 6:00 Southwell Handicap 1m Kevin De Foy HOLLY HOLY
  • 27 Sep 2025 7:00 Southwell Handicap 6f Mick Murphy JESSE LUC ✅
  • 27 Sep 2025 7:30 Southwell Handicap 5f Michael Dods NELSON GAY ✅
  • 27 Sep 2025 8:00 Southwell Handicap 1m 6f Tom Lacey BUXTED REEL
  • 27 Sep 2025 8:30 Southwell Handicap 1m 4f Jim Ferguson PHRYGIA

Southwell Betting Analysis

7:00 Southwell ❖ 6f C5 Hcp ❖ Jesse Luc (5/1) has a good Southwell record.

Conclusion: A tad high in the weights at 74, but that's because he's running well. Now just squeezing back into a C5, with Muscutt aboard, drawn in trap 1 ~ I predict he'll just nick this..


7:00 South ~ Win Bet: 5/1 Jesse Luc (Unp 4/1)

7:30 Southwell ❖ 5f C6 Hcp ❖ Nelson Gay (14/1) is on a winnable mark for sure.

Conclusion: Should be about 7/1 tops. Muscutt might just be able to grab a decent priced winner from back to front, if the gaps appear just right late on.


7:30 South ~ Win Bet: 14/1 Nelson Gay

Southwell Meeting Bets

Π Going: Tapeta - Standard.

4:19 Southwell (AW Tapeta)
# No Bet.

4:50 Southwell (AW Tapeta)
# No Bet.

5:25 Southwell (AW Tapeta)
# No Bet.

6:00 Southwell (AW Tapeta)
# No Bet.

6:30 Southwell (AW Tapeta)
# No Bet.

7:00 Southwell (AW Tapeta)
5/1 Jesse Luc. (Unplaced 4/1) Held up in mid-division inside, headway far side of group inside final 2f, ridden over 1f out, weakened final furlong, 6th.

7:30 Southwell (AW Tapeta)
14/1 Nelson Gay. (3rd 12/1) Raced against near side rail, prominent, led going well 2f out, ridden over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, lost 2nd towards finish, 3rd.

8:00 Southwell (AW Tapeta)
# No Bet.

8:30 Southwell (AW Tapeta)
# No Bet.

Stake: 2 X £1.00 Win Singles

Returns: 0.00

Total: - £2.00

Southwell Results - 27 Sept 2025. Going: Standard
16:19
1. 5 Rotokura Belle 5/1
2. 6 Dragon Spin 9/1
3. 2 Rajak 8/1
Tote Win 6.00
Places 2.30, 2.20, 2.20
Exacta: 35.00
CSF: 50.52
Tricast: 359.11
Trifecta: 311.20
Winning Jockey: Jordan Nason
Winning Trainer: I Furtado
Distances: 2 1/4 lengths, Head
Havin A Flyer 5/2 F
9 ran
Non Runners 1
16:50
1. 1 Siouxpersonic 4/5F
2. 6 Naana's Shadow 4/1
3. 2 Data Fata Secutus 40/1
Tote Win 1.80
Places 1.10, 1.40, 8.80
Exacta: 5.80
CSF: 4.45
Trifecta: 122.70
Winning Jockey: Callum Rodriguez
Winning Trainer: E Bethell
Distances: 1 3/4 length, 2 1/4 lengths
Siouxpersonic 4/5 F
11 ran
17:25
1. 7 Classical Allusion 10/1
2. 5 Aajej 11/8F
3. 9 Shumus 9/2
Tote Win 11.50
Places 2.30, 1.20, 1.30
Exacta: 32.60
CSF: 25.02
Trifecta: 101.90
Winning Jockey: Callum Hutchinson
Winning Trainer: A M Balding
Distances: 3/4 length, 3 1/4 lengths
Aajej 11/8 F
9 ran
18:00
1. 1 Spirit Lead Me 5/2
2. 4 Super Hit 16/1
3. 3 Bowood 2/1F
Tote Win 3.50
Places 1.60, 3.10, 1.70
Exacta: 49.40
CSF: 42.89
Tricast: 100.27
Trifecta: 199.30
Winning Jockey: Donagh Murphy
Winning Trainer: R Hughes
Distances: 2 lengths, 1/2 length
Bowood 2/1 F
12 ran
18:30
1. 2 Ararat 8/1
2. 5 Ziggy's Condor 9/4F
3. 4 Noel Fox 6/1
Tote Win 9.70
Places 3.10, 1.40, 1.70
Exacta: 31.40
CSF: 27.22
Tricast: 124.16
Trifecta: 143.50
Winning Jockey: N Callan
Winning Trainer: R M H Cowell
Distances: Neck, Head
Ziggy's Condor 9/4 F
10 ran
Non Runners 7
19:00
1. 5 Hierarchy 5/1
2. 8 Maui Breeze 8/1
3. 3 Kiniro 3/1F
Tote Win 6.10
Places 2.20, 2.80, 1.60
Exacta: 47.20
CSF: 45.82
Tricast: 133.18
Trifecta: 193.00
Winning Jockey: William Carver
Winning Trainer: J A Osborne
Distances: 1 1/2 length, Head
Kiniro 3/1 F
10 ran
19:30
1. 3 Havechatma 13/2
2. 1 Birkenhead 11/2
3. 5 Nelson Gay 12/1
Tote Win 7.50
Places 2.60, 1.90, 1.80
Exacta: 43.70
CSF: 41.91
Tricast: 421.28
Trifecta: 286.70
Winning Jockey: Jefferson Smith
Winning Trainer: D K Ivory
Distances: 1 1/4 length, 1/2 length
Bayraat 7/2 JF
Zuffolo 7/2 JF
8 ran
20:00
1. 4 Division Day 7/2
2. 1 Buxted Reel 9/2
Tote Win 4.50
Places 1.70, 0.90
Exacta: 5.70
CSF: 5.48
Trifecta: 18.40
Winning Jockey: Harry Russell
Winning Trainer: B Ellison
Distances: Short Head
Belaya River 2/1 F
5 ran
20:30
1. 7 Phrygia 9/1
2. 3 Everyoneknowsadave 6/1
3. 1 Always A Star 6/5F
Tote Win 10.80
Places 2.20, 1.80, 1.20
Exacta: 63.30
CSF: 61.94
Tricast: 109.81
Trifecta: 166.90
Winning Jockey: Daniel Muscutt
Winning Trainer: J Ferguson
Distances: 2 1/4 lengths, Short Head
Always A Star 6/5 F
8 ran
Non Runners 9

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Race Result - Southwell, 27th September 2025

19:00 Andrew And Anthony Roy Memorial Race Handicap (Div 2)
Going standard, 10 ran.

Place Horse Jockey Distance No. Weight S.P.
1st Hierarchy William Carver 5 9 8 5/1
Slowly into stride, off the pace in last trio, headway far side of group 2f out, chasing leaders over 1f out, ridden to lead inside final furlong, soon clear, eased close home

2nd Maui Breeze N Callan 1 1/2 length 8 9 7 8/1
Raced keenly tracking leaders inside, switched left 2f out, ran on under pressure inside final furlong, took 2nd final strides, no chance with winner

3rd Kiniro Callum Rodriguez Head 3 9 10 3/1 F
Raced keenly tracking leaders, came wide turning in, ridden to lead and hung left inside final 2f, headed inside final furlong, lost 2nd final strides

4th Lesley's Boy Jack Garritty Neck 7 9 7 10/1
Slowly into stride and switched left after start, soon mid-division, headway out wide and hung left over 1f out, kept on between horses inside final furlong, not pace to challenge

5th Lucky Man George Wood 1 1/4 length 10 9 4 14/1
Held up in last trio, some headway far side of group inside final 2f, ridden and weakened final furlong

6th Jesse Luc Daniel Muscutt 1 length 2 9 11 4/1
Held up in mid-division inside, headway far side of group inside final 2f, ridden over 1f out, weakened final furlong

7th Smooth Silesie Callum Hutchinson 2 1/4 lengths 4 9 9 18/1
Led until halfway, chased leader until pushed along turning in, chased leaders, ridden over 1f out, weakened quickly final furlong

8th Way To Dubai Mason Paetel 2 1/4 lengths 6 9 8 9/2
Pressed leader, led halfway, ridden and headed inside final 2f, weakened quickly

9th Rebel Empire J P Fahy 1/2 length 1 9 12 18/1
Held up in last trio, never on terms

10th Brunel Charm Miss J Gordon 3/4 length 9 9 6 50/1
Always towards rear

Blogger Sandracer @ 7:15 pm, September 27, 2025  

Race Result - Southwell, 27th September 2025

19:30 Free Race Replays On attheraces.com Handicap
Going standard, 8 ran.

Place Horse Jockey Distance No. Weight S.P.
1st Havechatma Jefferson Smith 3 9 9 13/2
Steadied and switched left start, raced keenly and held up in last trio, headway chasing leaders over 1f out, ridden to lead inside final furlong, ran on well

2nd Birkenhead B McHugh 1 1/4 length 1 9 12 11/2
Went to post early, led, narrowly headed 2f out, lost 2nd 1f out, kept on into 2nd again towards finish, no chance with winner

3rd Nelson Gay Daniel Muscutt 1/2 length 5 9 7 12/1
Raced against near side rail, prominent, led going well 2f out, ridden over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, lost 2nd towards finish

4th Woodhay Whisper D E Hogan 1/2 length 6 9 6 16/1
Steadied start and awkwardly away, ridden over 1f out, ran on between horses inside final furlong, never going pace to reach leaders

5th Bayraat J P Fahy Head 8 9 1 7/2 JF
Held up in last pair far side of group, some headway and switched left 2f out, 5th and no impression final furlong

6th Irish Dancer Mr Harry Smith Neck 7 9 4 4/1
Raced far side of group chasing leaders, pushed along halfway, ridden and hung right 2f out, weakened final furlong

7th Zuffolo Callum Rodriguez Neck 2 9 9 7/2 JF
Raced near side of group, prominent, weakened final furlong

8th Son Of Wind Tommie Jakes 1/2 length 4 9 8 12/1
Chased leaders, pushed along halfway, ridden hung left and weakened over 1f out

Blogger Sandracer @ 7:16 pm, September 27, 2025  

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