Cracking The Southwell AW Code ~ Mon July 28 2025
Blog Post Content
Post Body
Southwell AW Code Breaker
It's the first race day of the week and I'm off to Southwell to try and crack the All Weather code, pretty much courtesy of Hector Crouch. He rides in 5 handicaps and a couple 2yo maidens. The handicaps will be my focus.
❖ Jockeys ❖ Hector Crouch is having a decent season, he's the obvious jockey to watch out for. Rob Havlin has 4 rides in handicaps today, I will back him if the form warrants it.
❖ Trainers ❖ Trainer focus is not of much use today regarding pointers.
❖ Draw Bias ❖ The draw bias at Southwell is non existent. Back who you like wherever they're drawn. If backing any front runners, pay close attention to whether they'll actually get home up the slightly uphill 1.5f finish.
❖ Bet Selection Considerations ❖
- Anything ridden by Hector Crouch
- Watch out for Rab Havlin
- Watch out for strong yard like James Owen in the 2 miler at 8:30 with Destinado
- Solid Southwell C&D form may be especially important this evening
- I will be discounting inexperienced horses in maidens and stakes races ~ handicaps only
Southwell AW Jockey Statistics
Jockey HECTOR CROUCH
- Date | Race | Type | Distance | Trainer | Horse
- 28 Jul 2025 6:52 Southwell Handicap 1m JACK JONES TIEMPO ALEGRE
- 28 Jul 2025 7:25 Southwell Handicap 7f ED DUNLOP LESSAY
- 28 Jul 2025 8:00 Southwell Handicap 6f IVAN FURTADO MINNESOTA LAD
- 28 Jul 2025 8:30 Southwell Handicap 1m 6f RICHARD HUGHES DALTON PARK
- 28 Jul 2025 9:00 Southwell Handicap 1m 3f CRAIG LIDSTER COULSEA
Jockey RAB HAVLIN
- Date | Race | Type | Distance | Trainer | Horse
- 28 Jul 2025 6:52 Southwell Handicap 1m ED DUNLOP MOONLIT STAGE
- 28 Jul 2025 7:25 Southwell Handicap 7f S WOODS SAVVY EXCHANGE
- 28 Jul 2025 8:30 Southwell Handicap 1m 6f S WOODS SYDNEY SEABREEZE
- 28 Jul 2025 9:00 Southwell Handicap 1m 3f DAVID MENUISIER ROMANTIC SPIRIT
Southwell Betting Analysis
6:52 Southwell ❖ Crouch rides the current 7/2 fav Tiempo Alegre who I am not enthralled by formwise, so I'll take him on with Havlin's Moonlit Stage at 12/1.
Conclusion: Moonlit Stage has form 3 races back that was plenty strong enough to take a real hand in this race. His last couple of races were over way too far for him by the looks of it. The drop back down to a mile, and the return of Havlin in the saddle will, I think, prove to be significant.
6:52 South ~ Win Bet: 12/1 Moonlit Stage (Unp 9/1)
7:25 Southwell ❖ Hector Crouch's Lessay has a decent chance dropped back down to 7f. The 10/1 on offer looks about 5 points too big to me. I make him about the 5/1 co fav with a couple of others who have every chance on the book. Crouch will be looking to nick this one with a well time late run.
Conclusion: Lessay is definitely worth a dabble at the double figure price on offer this morning. He has plenty in his favour to make him a reasonable bet.
7:25 South ~ Win Bet: 10/1 Lessay (Unp 12/1)
8:30 Southwell ❖ Can't Have Crouch's 5/1jf Dalton Park. I think it's a toss up between the other 5/1jf Destinado and Havlin's Sydney Seabreeze at 12/1.
Conclusion: Sydney Seabreeze needs a smooth ride like Havlin will surely be aiming for. The addition of a visor may prove significant. Hasn't been quite getting home, even when going well. I am forseeing a slight improvement. At the price, worth a small interest.
8:30 South ~ Win Bet: 12/1 Sydney Seabreeze (Unp 10/1)
Southwell Meeting Bets
Π Going: Tapeta - Standard.
5:50 Southwell (AW Tapeta)
# No Bet.
6:20 Southwell (AW Tapeta)
# No Bet.
6:52 Southwell (AW Tapeta)
12/1 Moonlit Sunset. (Unp 9/1) Slowly into stride and pushed along in rear, never involved, 8th.
7:25 Southwell (AW Tapeta)
10/1 Lessay. (Unp 12/1) Slowly away and switched left start, in rear, headway when hampered inside final 2f, rallied chasing leaders over 1f out, weakened inside final furlong, 6th.
8:00 Southwell (AW Tapeta)
# No Bet.
8:30 Southwell (AW Tapeta)
12/1 Sydney Seabreeze. (Unplaced 10/1) Tracked leaders inside, ridden and weakened over 2f out, 11th.
9:00 Southwell (AW Tapeta)
# No Bet.
Stake: 3 X £1.00 Win Singles = £3.00
Returns: 0.00
Total: - £3.00
| Southwell Results - 28 July 2025. Going: standard |
17:50
1. 1 Special Dividend 4/6F2. 2 Hungarian 25/1 3. 7 Yes Waliim 7/2 Tote Win 1.67 Places 1.02, 6.60, 1.60 Exacta: 28.40 CSF: 31.76 Trifecta: 152.70 Winning Jockey: Hollie Doyle Winning Trainer: Dr R Newland & J Insole Distances: 3 1/4 lengths, 1 length Special Dividend 4/6 F 11 ran |
18:20
1. 5 May Angel 9/22. 9 Tierra Del Toro 9/2 3. 3 Key Of Magic 4/9F Tote Win 7.10 Places 1.30, 1.40, 1.02 Exacta: 31.10 CSF: 25.93 Trifecta: 55.40 Winning Jockey: Hollie Doyle Winning Trainer: J & T Gosden Distances: 2 1/4 lengths, 2 3/4 lengths Key Of Magic 4/9 F 8 ran Non Runners 6 10 11 |
18:52
1. 11 Tiempo Alegre 10/3F2. 7 Timeless Spirit 9/2 3. 2 Francesi 11/1 Tote Win 4.34 Places 1.40, 2.80, 3.00 Exacta: 22.80 CSF: 18.71 Tricast: 155.88 Trifecta: 172.10 Winning Jockey: Hector Crouch Winning Trainer: Jack Jones Distances: 4 1/4 lengths, Short Head Tiempo Alegre 10/3 F 12 ran |
19:25
1. 6 Master Richard 7/12. 1 Noodle Mission 15/2 3. 3 Altmore 11/4F Tote Win 8.20 Places 2.50, 2.40, 1.50 Exacta: 60.60 CSF: 60.32 Tricast: 183.90 Trifecta: 261.80 Winning Jockey: D Nolan Winning Trainer: Mrs A Duffield Distances: 1 length, Neck Altmore 11/4 F 12 ran Non Runners 2 |
20:00
1. 7 Hierarchy 4/12. 9 Speeding Bullet 8/1 3. 10 Daytona Lady 10/1 Tote Win 5.00 Places 1.60, 2.50, 2.60 Exacta: 38.60 CSF: 36.37 Tricast: 301.59 Trifecta: 348.70 Winning Jockey: Saffie Osborne Winning Trainer: J A Osborne Distances: Neck, 3/4 length Minnesota Lad 5/2 F 9 ran Non Runners 2 |
20:30
1. 7 Hatysa 15/22. 3 Senor Cortez 20/1 3. 1 Destinado 11/2 Tote Win 8.50 Places 2.50, 5.50, 2.00 Exacta: 156.20 CSF: 147.87 Tricast: 896.73 Trifecta: 1266.50 Winning Jockey: P J McDonald Winning Trainer: A M Balding Distances: Nose, 4 1/2 lengths Dalton Park 10/3 F 11 ran |
21:00
1. 2 Everyoneknowsadave 6/12. 7 Divot 10/3 3. 4 Liberty Bird 9/1 Tote Win 7.00 Places 1.60, 1.50, 1.80 Exacta: 30.50 CSF: 26.85 Tricast: 180.61 Trifecta: 150.50 Winning Jockey: George Wood Winning Trainer: Jessica Macey Distances: Neck, 1 1/4 length Frostmagic 5/4 F 8 ran |
Labels: All-Weather-Code
3 Comentario 💬
Race Result - Southwell, 28th July 2025
18:52 HighBet Weekly Racing Rewards Club 'Confined' Handicap
Going standard, 12 ran.
Place Horse Jockey Distance No. Weight S.P.
1st Tiempo Alegre Hector Crouch 11 9 2 10/3 F
Held up towards rear, good headway over 2fout, led over 1f out, came right away inside final furlong, very easily
2nd Timeless Spirit Mr Joe Leavy 4 1/4 lengths 7 9 8 9/2
Held up towards rear, good headway chasing leaders 2f out, took 2nd inside final 110 yards, no chance with very easy winner
3rd Francesi Benjamin Sanderson Short Head 2 9 13 11/1
Held up towards rear, still plenty to do when headway against near side rail over 1f out, ran on inside final furlong, just missed 2nd, no chance with winner
4th Magdalayna Hollie Doyle 1/2 length 6 9 8 9/1
Prominent out wide, went 2nd 7f out, led turning in, ridden and headed over 1f out, no chance with very easy winner, weakened and lost two places inside final 110 yards
5th Shaws Phoenix Keiran O�Neill 1 3/4 length 5 9 10 12/1
Raced keenly tracked leader 1f, handy 3rd inside, angled out turning in, hung left over 2f out, soon ridden, losing place when slightly hampered and switched left over 1f out, weakened inside final furlong
6th Eden Storm Mr Jack Nicholls 2 1/4 lengths 3 9 11 4/1
Steadied and switched left start, held up in rear, some late headway inside final furlong, never involved
7th Moonlit Stage R Havlin 3 1/4 lengths 9 9 6 9/1
Slowly into stride and pushed along in rear, never involved
8th Almizan Tyler Heard 1/2 length 12 8 13 33/1
Raced on inside, never closer than mid-division
9th Linear Spirit P J McDonald 2 3/4 lengths 8 9 7 16/1
Tracked leaders out wide, pushed along 3f out, soon outpaced and weakened after turning in
10th Makeen Ryan Sexton Short Head 4 9 11 13/2
Raced wide and never closer than mid-division
11th Dance Recital Darragh Keenan 3/4 length 10 9 2 40/1
Held up in last trio, never on terms
12th Like Magic D E Hogan 14 lengths 1 10 0 150/1
Soon crossed over from wide draw to lead against rail, pushed along 3f out, ridden and headed turning in, hung left and lost 2nd over 2f out, weakened rapidly, tailed off
Race Result - Southwell, 28th July 2025
19:25 Join Southwell Golf Club Handicap
Going standard, 12 ran.
Place Horse Jockey Distance No. Weight S.P.
1st Master Richard D Nolan 6 9 4 7/1
Made all, came wide in home straight, ridden over 1f out, ran on well, unchallenged
2nd Noodle Mission P J McDonald 1 length 1 9 11 15/2
Towards rear, headway chasing leaders out wide when not clear run over 1f out, ran on inside final furlong, took 2nd towards finish, no chance with winner
3rd Altmore Callum Rodriguez Neck 3 9 10 11/4 F
Held up in last pair, strong reminders over 3f out and turning in, good headway far side of group over 1f out, ran on inside final furlong, almost snatched never nearer 2nd, no chance with winner
4th Silver Trumpet Hollie Doyle 3/4 length 12 9 0 9/2
Prominent out wide, went 2nd 5f out, ridden and no impression when lost 2nd and weakened towards finish
5th Savvy Exchange R Havlin Short Head 8 9 3 13/2
Held up in mid-division inside, headway chasing leaders over 1f out, kept on inside final furlong, never going pace to reach leaders
6th Lessay Hector Crouch Neck 9 9 2 12/1
Slowly away and switched left start, in rear, headway when hampered inside final 2f, rallied chasing leaders over 1f out, weakened inside final furlong
7th Habrdi J P Sullivan 2 1/4 lengths 11 9 1 25/1
Raced keenly chasing leaders inside, ridden and challenging over 1f out, hung left and weakened final furlong
8th Chola Empire Callum Shepherd 3/4 length 10 9 2 25/1
Held up towards rear, never on terms
9th Bold Suitor Georgia Dobie Neck 13 8 12 18/1
Raced keenly early, soon steadied mid-division, some headway chasing leaders 2f out, soon ridden and weakened
10th Beauty Choice Billy Garritty Neck 7 9 4 50/1
Raced wide and never closer than mid-division
11th Think Climate Ali Husain 1 1/4 length 4 9 9 50/1
Off the pace in last trio, never on terms
12th Ziggy's Condor Jack Garritty Neck 5 9 5 9/2
Chased winner 2f, chased leaders, ridden and weakened final 2f
Race Result - Southwell, 28th July 2025
20:30 Download The At The Races App Handicap
Going standard, 11 ran.
Place Horse Jockey Distance No. Weight S.P.
1st Hatysa P J McDonald 7 9 4 15/2
Led 2f, tracked leaders, pushed along turning in, ridden and led again over 1f out, just lasted
2nd Senor Cortez Darragh Keenan Nose 3 9 8 20/1
Held up in mid-division, headway chasing leaders over 2f out, went 2nd stayed on between horses inside final furlong, just failed
3rd Destinado Callum Shepherd 4 1/2 lengths 1 10 2 11/2
Held up towards rear, headway far side of group 2f out, stayed on same pace in 3rd inside final furlong
4th Dalton Park Hector Crouch 2 1/4 lengths 2 9 11 10/3 F
Started very slowly and reluctant early, well behind, finally picked up inside final furlong, took never nearer 4th towards finish
5th Taylormade Lad Billy Garritty 3/4 length 10 8 13 9/1
Chased leaders out wide, led after 2f, ridden over 1f out, soon headed, weakened inside final furlong, lost modest 4th towards finish
6th Rubellite B McHugh 1/2 length 8 9 4 7/1
Held up in last pair, ridden over 1f out, some headway inside final furlong, weakened towards finish
7th Must Believe Tommie Jakes 4 1/2 lengths 6 9 5 9/2
Mid-division out wide, headway chasing leaders halfway, ridden and came wide in straight, hampered and snatched up over 2f out, no chance after
8th Captious Cantor Hollie Doyle 1 1/2 length 11 8 3 12/1
Off the pace and always towards rear
9th Lunar Jet D C Costello 1 length 9 9 0 80/1
Raced inside, never closer than mid-division
10th Albert Lasker Keiran O'Neill 1 3/4 length 5 9 5 18/1
Soon chasing leaders out wide, went 2nd after 3f, pushed along over 3f out, came wide in straight, ridden inside final 2f, weakened over 1f out
11th Sydney Seabreeze R Havlin 16 lengths 4 9 6 10/1
Tracked leaders inside, ridden and weakened over 2f out
Post a Comment