The Derby - Epsom - 2025
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The Derby (In Honour Of His Highness Aga Khan IV)
The Derby▸ is a Group 1 classic for 3yo colts and fillies▸ tests stamina▸ tests speed▸ tests class▸ over Epsoms flip flopping, dipping and undulating 1m4f course.
Delacroix (100/30)▸ Aidan O’Brien’s star, with Ryan Moore aboard▸ two Group 3 wins this season. His stamina and form make him a leading contender.
Ruling Court (3/1)▸ The 2000 Guineas winner from Godolphin looks primed for the step up to 1m4f▸ with a pedigree suited to staying.
Pride Of Arras (5/1)▸ Dante Stakes winner showed a devastating turn of foot. A major player if he handles Epsoms camber.
The Lion In Winter (7/1)▸ Lost his unbeaten tag in the Dante▸ could bounce back if sharper for the run.
Lambourn (9/1)▸ Chester Vase winner with stamina to spare▸ but tactical speed could be a concern.
Damysus (12/1)▸ Dante runner-up with a strong finish▸ but needs to overcome Epsoms unique track.
Midak (14/1)▸ Unbeaten French colt▸ supplemented for the race▸ brings intrigue with staying potential.
Stanhope Gardens (16/1)▸ Close to Delacroix last season▸ he’s bred to excel at this trip and could surprise.
Nightwalker (25/1)▸ Improving Frankel colt whose staying style suits the Derby distance.
Tornado Alert (33/1)▸ Showed promise in the 2000 Guineas▸ a dark horse if he stays the trip.
Tennessee Stud (50/1)▸ Group 1 winner on heavy ground▸ but recent form suggests he’s up against it.
New Ground (50/1)▸ Supplemented after solid juvenile form▸ but needs a big step up.
Tuscan Hills (66/1)▸ Dante run was decent▸ could outrun odds for place-hunters.
Lazy Griff (100/1)▸ Front-runner with Chester Vase form▸ faces a tough task.
Al Wasl Storm (100/1)▸ Owners history with longshots keeps him in the mix for a shock place.
Sea Scout (100/1)▸ Course winner, but stamina concerns linger after Dante fade.
Nightime Dancer (150/1)▸ Lingfield Trial third▸ needs significant improvement.
Green Storm (200/1)▸ Group race form as a juvenile▸ but recent runs raise huge doubts.
Rogue Impact (250/1)▸ Syndicate’s hope with a big heart▸ but form suggests a tough old day.
Competitive Field▸ With 19 runners going to post▸ this is a wide open Derby. Good to Soft ground could favour stamina bred horses, with more showers forecast for Saturday.
⭐ Sandracer Selection▸ We’ll take a chance on Midak at 14/1 ~ Win Only.
✨ Unbeaten and supplemented for the Aga Khan, his staying pedigree and recent Group 3 win make him a decent betting proposition at a price.
Ruling Court
Odds 3/1 Fav
Charlie Appleby’s 2000 Guineas winner, drawn in stall 7, is bred for this trip by Justify, sire of last year’s Derby hero.
His strong finish at Newmarket suggests 1m4f will suit, despite a defeat to The Lion In Winter last year.
Godolphin’s confidence is high we are told.
A major contender.
Winning Chance Probability ~20%
Delacroix
Odds 100/30
Aidan O’Brien’s Dubawi colt, drawn in stall 14, has been flawless this season, landing Group 3 wins at Leopardstown, including the Palace Hotel Derby Trial by 2¾ lengths.
His near-miss in the Group 1 Futurity Trophy shows his class, and Ryan Moore’s choice to ride signals confidence. Versatile on ground, he’s a strong favorite if he handles Epsoms demands.
Winning Chance Probability ~20%
Pride Of Arras
Odds 5/1
Ralph Beckett’s colt, drawn in stall 16, stormed to victory in the Dante Stakes, showing a blistering final furlong.
His pedigree, linked to St Leger winner Brian Boru, suggests stamina, but Epsoms camber could test his balance.
A bold run is expected if he adapts to the notorious Epsom ups, downs and arounds.
Winning Chance Probability ~10%
The Lion In Winter
Odds 7/1
Drawn widest in stall 19.
Aidan O’Brien’s colt lost his unbeaten record in the Dante.
Showed promise as a juvenile, beating Ruling Court in the Acomb Stakes.
His keenness early in races is a concern, but a sharper run could see him challenge. Needs to prove stamina.
Winning Chance Probability ~8%
Lambourn
Odds 9/1
Another O’Brien runner, drawn in stall 10.
Australia colt won the Chester Vase, outstaying Lazy Griff.
His stamina is assured, but a lack of tactical speed could hinder him in a fast-run Derby.
Probably better suited to longer trips like the St Leger.
Winning Chance Probability ~5%
Damysus
Odds 12/1
Gosden’s Frankel colt, drawn in stall 15, ran a strong second in the Dante despite hanging left. His pedigree screams stamina, but Epsoms camber could exaggerate any quirks.
Recent work at Epsom was promising, making him a solid each-way chance.
Winning Chance Probability ~5%
Midak
Odds 14/1
Supplemented for £75,000 and drawn in stall 4.
Unbeaten Aga Khan colt who impressed me in the Prix Greffulhe.
His staying pedigree and composed racing style make him a fascinating contender, with potential to emulate Pour Moi’s 2011 French-Epsom double.
Winning Chance Probability ~15%
Stanhope Gardens
Odds 16/1
Ralph Beckett’s colt, drawn in stall 2, pushed Delacroix close in the Autumn Stakes and won easily at Salisbury on return.
His pedigree suggests he’ll relish 1m4f, and a low draw is a bonus.
Could outrun his odds if he’s progressed.
Winning Chance Probability ~5%
Nightwalker
Odds 25/1
Gosden’s Frankel colt, drawn in stall 5, showed staying power in the Dante.
His pedigree, linked to St Leger winner Logician, suggests 1m4f will suit. Cheekpieces are added.
Further improvement could see him get a place maybe.
Winning Chance Probability ~2%
Tornado Alert
Odds 33/1
Saeed bin Suroor’s colt, drawn in stall 11, ran well in the 2000 Guineas but needs to prove he stays 1m4f.
His pedigree offers hope.
Godolphin’s second string could surprise if he settles.
Winning Chance Probability ~1%
Tennessee Stud
Odds 50/1
Joseph O’Brien’s colt, drawn in stall 12, won the Group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud on heavy ground.
A recent defeat to Delacroix suggests he’s up against it.
Soft conditions could help him sneak a place.
Winning Chance Probability ~1%
New Ground
Odds 50/1
Supplemented and drawn in stall 17, this Juddmonte colt won twice as a juvenile but has placed in lesser company this season.
The step up to 1m4f is a question mark, and he needs a career-best effort.
Winning Chance Probability ~1%
Tuscan Hills
Odds 66/1
Drawn in stall 6, this colt was unbeaten as a juvenile, including a Listed win. His Dante seventh was respectable, and his connections’ history with longshots makes him a place contender.
Winning Chance Probability ~1%
Lazy Griff
Odds 100/1
Charlie Johnston’s front-runner, drawn in stall 3, pushed Lambourn in the Chester Vase. His Group 3 win as a juvenile shows ability, but he’ll need to dictate to have a chance.
Winning Chance Probability ~1%
Al Wasl Storm
Odds 100/1
Drawn in stall 1, this bargain buy won a strong Chester maiden. Owner Ahmad Al Shaikh’s knack for longshot places keeps him in the frame, especially after a good Epsom gallop.
Winning Chance Probability ~1%
Sea Scout
Odds 100/1
The only course winner, drawn in stall 14, he took the Blue Riband Trial but faded in the Dante. Stamina doubts make him a risky pick despite Epsom experience.
Winning Chance Probability ~1%
Nightime Dancer
Odds 150/1
Drawn in stall 9, this colt won on the all-weather but was outclassed in the Lingfield Derby Trial. The step up in trip may help, but he faces a steep challenge.
Winning Chance Probability ~1%
Green Storm
Odds 200/1
Drawn in stall 8, this colt has Group race form but faded badly in the Feilden Stakes. His pedigree suggests 1m4f could suit, but recent form tempers expectations.
Winning Chance Probability ~1%
Rogue Impact
Odds 250/1
Drawn in stall 1, this syndicate-owned colt beat Al Wasl Storm in a maiden but struggled in the Lingfield Trial. His team’s enthusiasm is high, but form suggests a tough task.
Winning Chance Probability ~1%
#note: Winning Chance Probability Is My Opinion ~ Not The Bookies Odds Percentage.
Epsom Derby Racecard
| No. (Draw) | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | A | Wt | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 (13) | Al Wasl Storm | Probert D. | Burrows O. | 3 | 9-2 | 100/1 |
| 02 (15) | Damysus | Doyle J. | J & T Gosden | 3 | 9-2 | 12/1 |
| 03 (14) | Delacroix | Moore R. L. | O'Brien A. P. | 3 | 9-2 | 100/30 |
| 04 (8) | Green Storm | Loughnane B. | Johnston C. | 3 | 9-2 | 200/1 |
| 05 (10) | Lambourn | Lordan W. M. | O'Brien A. P. | 3 | 9-2 | 9/1 |
| 06 (3) | Lazy Griff | Soumillon C. | Johnston C. | 3 | 9-2 | 100/1 |
| 07 (4) | Midak | Barzalona M. | Graffard F. | 3 | 9-2 | 14/1 |
| 08 (17) | New Ground | Pouchin A. | Devin H. F. | 3 | 9-2 | 50/1 |
| 09 (9) | Nightime Dancer | Spencer J. P. | Hannon R. | 3 | 9-2 | 150/1 |
| 10 (5) | Nightwalker | Marquand T. | J & T Gosden | 3 | 9-2 | 25/1 |
| 11 (16) | Pride Of Arras | Ryan R. | Beckett R. M. | 3 | 9-2 | 5/1 |
| 12 (1) | Rogue Impact | Morris L. | Owen J. | 3 | 9-2 | 250/1 |
| 13 (7) | Ruling Court | Buick W. | Appleby C. | 3 | 9-2 | 3/1 |
| 14 (14) | Sea Scout | Davies H. | S & E Crisford | 3 | 9-2 | 100/1 |
| 15 (2) | Stanhope Gardens | Crouch H. | Beckett R. M. | 3 | 9-2 | 16/1 |
| 16 (12) | Tennessee Stud | McMonagle D. | O'Brien J. P. | 3 | 9-2 | 50/1 |
| 17 (19) | The Lion In Winter | Keane C. T. | O'Brien A. P. | 3 | 9-2 | 7/1 |
| 18 (11) | Tornado Alert | Murphy O. | Suroor S. b. | 3 | 9-2 | 33/1 |
| 19 (6) | Tuscan Hills | Egan D. | Freire R. | 3 | 9-2 | 66/1 |
2025 Derby Full Result
1st▸ 5 Lambourn 13/2
2nd▸ 6 Lazy Griff 50/1
3rd▸ 16 Tennessee Stud 28/1
▪ Tote Win 10.35
▪ Places 2.70 ▪ 8.65 ▪ 8.75
▪ Exacta ▪ 338.80
▪ CSF ▪ 316.34
▪ Tricast ▪ 8294.72
▪ Trifecta ▪ 3431.20
▪ Winning Jockey ▪ W M Lordan
▪ Winning Trainer ▪ A P O'Brien
▪ Distances ▪ 3 3/4 lengths ▪ 1 length
▪ Btn Fav ▪ Delacroix ▪ 2/1 F
▪ All 18 ran
▪ Non Runners ▪ 13
Oddschecker.com
Labels: Epsom
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The Derby Live Odds Archive
No. Horse Odds Variations SP
11 Delacroix 2/1 2/1
5 Pride Of Arras 4/1 4/1
17 Lambourn 13/2 13/2
7 The Lion In Winter 7/1, 15/2, 7/1, 15/2 7/1
15 Midak 9/1, 17/2, 8/1, 17/2 9/1
2 Stanhope Gardens 12/1, 11/1, 12/1, 11/1 12/1
16 Damysus 16/1, 14/1 16/1
18 Tennessee Stud 28/1 28/1
19 Tornado Alert 33/1, 40/1 40/1
10 Nightwalker 40/1, 33/1 40/1
6 Lazy Griff 50/1 50/1
8 New Ground 50/1 50/1
4 Green Storm 50/1, 40/1 50/1
1 Al Wasl Storm 50/1, 66/1 50/1
9 Nightime Dancer 100/1, 125/1, 100/1, 125/1 100/1
14 Sea Scout 125/1 125/1
12 Rogue Impact 200/1, 150/1 200/1
SP Book Percentage: 145.85
How They Ran ~ 2025 Derby Result
1st
5 (10) Lambourn – 13/2
T: A P O'Brien | J: W M Lordan
Made all and set strong pace, clear over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, stayed on strongly, unchallenged
2nd (3 ¾ lengths)
6 (3) Lazy Griff – 50/1
T: C Johnston | J: C Soumillon
Tracked leaders inside, went 2nd over 2f out, ridden and no impression over 1f out, stayed on for clear 2nd, no chance with unchallenged winner
3rd (1 length)
16 (12) Tennessee Stud – 28/1
T: J P O'Brien | J: D McMonagle
Held up towards rear, headway on inside over 2f out, stayed on inside final furlong, went 3rd towards finish, no chance with unchallenged winner
4th (neck)
8 (17) New Ground – 50/1
T: H F Devin | J: Alexis Pouchin
Keen to post, off the pace in last pair, in rear and struggling on downhill run, good headway out wide over 1f out, hung left and stayed on under pressure inside final furlong, just missed 3rd, no chance with unchallenged winner
5th (neck)
15 (2) Stanhope Gardens – 12/1
T: R M Beckett | J: Hector Crouch
Held up off the pace towards rear, headway out wide over 2f out, hung left on camber 2f out, ridden and went 3rd soon after, no chance with leading duo, weakened and lost two places towards finish
6th (3 lengths)
18 (11) Tornado Alert – 40/1
T: S bin Suroor | J: Oisin Murphy
Rearing in stalls, raced keenly, soon steadied mid-division, headway out wide 2f out, soon ridden and hung left on camber, weakened final furlong
7th (1 ¼ lengths)
4 (8) Green Storm – 50/1
T: C Johnston | J: Billy Loughnane
Held up in mid-division inside, headway out wide over 2f out, ridden and edged left on camber 2f out, ridden in modest 5th over 1f out, weakened final furlong
8th (½ length)
9 (9) Nightime Dancer – 100/1
T: R Hannon | J: J P Spencer
Steadied start, held up in last pair, moderate late headway out wide, never involved
9th (6 lengths)
3 (14) Delacroix – 2/1f
T: A P O'Brien | J: R L Moore
Tracked leaders, soon lost place and towards rear, pushed along and struggling on downhill run, switched sharply left inside final 3f, ridden and no impression 2f out, never involved
10th (neck)
7 (4) Midak – 9/1
T: F Graffard | J: M Barzalona
Tracked leaders, pushed along over 2f out, ridden and hung left on camber 2f out, weakened soon after
11th (¾ length)
14 (18) Sea Scout – 125/1
T: S & E Crisford | J: Harry Davies
Raced keenly tracking winner, pushed along inside final 3f, lost 2nd over 2f out, hung left on camber and weakened inside final 2f
12th (6 lengths)
10 (5) Nightwalker – 40/1
T: J & T Gosden | J: Tom Marquand
Slowly into stride, always towards rear
13th (2 lengths)
12 (1) Rogue Impact – 200/1
T: James Owen | J: L Morris
Off the pace and always towards rear, never a factor
14th (2 ½ lengths)
17 (19) The Lion In Winter – 7/1
T: A P O'Brien | J: C T Keane
Always towards rear
15th (13 lengths)
1 (13) Al Wasl Storm – 50/1
T: Owen Burrows | J: David Probert
Raced wide and always towards rear
16th (2 ¼ lengths)
19 (6) Tuscan Hills – 40/1
T: Raphael Freire | J: D Egan
Mid-division inside, ridden over 2f out, soon weakened
17th (7 ½ lengths)
11 (16) Pride Of Arras – 4/1
T: R M Beckett | J: Rossa Ryan
Raced keenly early, steadied mid-division out wide, pushed along and awkward bend turning in, soon struggling towards rear, tailed off
18th (1 ¾ lengths)
2 (15) Damysus – 16/1
T: J & T Gosden | J: James Doyle
Pulled hard tracking leaders, steadied mid-division, pushed along turning in, weakened and behind, tailed off
How The Derby Went: As I Saw It
A commanding and relentless display from Lambourn saw the Aidan O’Brien-trained colt power clear at Epsom Downs to claim a well-deserved Derby victory. Ridden with composure and confidence by Wayne Lordan, Lambourn was sent straight to the front and set a strong gallop from the outset. Despite the presence of a big field and several contenders, none could match his stamina and resolve once the race reached the crucial stages.
Lordan kept Lambourn firmly in control, and by two furlongs out, the leader had already established a clear advantage. Despite some pressure in the final furlong, Lambourn stayed on strongly, holding his rivals at bay to win unchallenged by three and three-quarter lengths.
The surprise package of the race was 50/1 outsider Lazy Griff, who chased home the leader with a determined second, echoing his recent runner-up effort in the Chester Vase. Meanwhile, Tennessee Stud stayed on well to take third, just ahead of New Ground and Stanhope Gardens, both of whom showed encouraging late progress.
Hot favourite Delacroix, despite a promising season and being well fancied under Ryan Moore, was unable to impact the race, finishing back in ninth after being caught out in the rear early on. The absence of 2000 Guineas winner Ruling Court left the field wide open, but the relentless pace and Lambourn’s proven stamina proved decisive.
The victory marked a first Derby triumph for jockey Wayne Lordan, who reflected on the significance of the win: “I knew I’d gone a good gallop and when his ears pricked, I knew he had plenty left. He’s a horse we always thought stays well, so I thought it would take a fair one to come and get me.”
O’Brien hailed Lambourn’s attitude and stamina, likening him to his illustrious sire Australia, another Derby winner. “He’s very straightforward, genuine and committed. He’s a typical Australia — uncomplicated and tough. Wayne gave him an incredible ride, and everybody knew what he was going to do.”
The Derby win capped off a fantastic meeting for O’Brien, who had already landed two Group 1s earlier in the week, continuing his remarkable dominance at Epsom.
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