Sandown Bets - (Sat June 14 2025)
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Draw Bias▸ Minimal for 1m+ races, but +22yd rail movement may slightly favour middle draws (4 ~ 7). Stalls 10 and 1 may be disadvantaged.
Watching Stars is the clear choice with a perfect draw (7) and a recent second at Newmarket (1m, good to firm). Ryan Moore’s 26.1% win rate and Charlie Appleby’s 26.9% win rate (57.7% place rate) make this a strong favourite, with Gladius (draw 10) and Man Of La Mancha less likely to challenge.
Recommended Bet▸
- Watching Stars (Draw 7, Ryan Moore, Charlie Appleby) Win bet at 5/2.
Humdinger▸
- Bulletin (Draw 5, Rob Hornby, Jonathan Perrett) Each-way bet at 12/1.
Result▸
- 1st▸ 1 Gladius 6/4F
- 2nd▸ 2 Watching Stars 7/4
- Tote Win: 2.50
Places: 1.40, 1.40
Exacta: 4.80 CSF: 4.31
Tricast: 5.62 Trifecta: 8.70
7 ran: Non Runners: 4 5 6
Draw Bias▸ Minimal for 1m, but +22yd rail movement may slightly favour middle draws (4 ~ 8). High draw (11) could be tricky.
Classic’s recent fourth at Epsom in a stronger race and Ryan Moore’s 101.2% SP ROI make it the top pick. Low draw (3) suits, and Urban Lion (draw 11) and Balmacara lack the same consistency.
Recommended Bet▸
- Classic (Draw 3, Ryan Moore, Richard Hannon) Win bet at 7/2.
Humdinger▸
- Mr Professor (Draw 8, David Egan, Raphael E Freire) Each-way bet at 14/1.
Result▸
- 1st▸ 6 Urban Lion 9/4
- 2nd▸ 8 Classic 11/8F
- Tote Win: 3.25
Places: 1.30, 1.40
Exacta: 5.40 CSF: 5.76
Trifecta: 12.30
7 ran: Non Runners: 3 4 5 7 10 11
Draw Bias▸ Strong high draw bias (6 ~ 8) for 5f sprints, with ~38% win rate for high stalls on good to firm ground. No rail movement.
Star Of Mehmas’s consistent form (second at Goodwood 5f) and Ryan Moore’s 26.1% win rate overcome the low draw (2) in a small field. Town And Country and Coto De Caza need more to upset.
Recommended Bet▸
- Star Of Mehmas (Draw 2, Ryan Moore, Richard Hughes) Win bet at 9/4.
Humdinger▸
- Kullazain (Draw 8, Oisin Murphy, James Tate) Each-way bet at 14/1.
Result▸
- 1st▸ 8 Town And Country 5/2
- 2nd▸ 5 Hold A Dream 9/2
-
Tote Win: 3.50
Places: 1.90, 1.90
Exacta: 14.00
CSF: 13.30
Trifecta: 38.10
Distances: Short Head
Coto De Caza 2/1 F
7 ran:
Non Runners: 2
Draw Bias▸ Middle to high draws (4 ~ 7) have a ~30% place rate for 7f, but +22yd rail movement may favour draws 3 ~ 5.
Brize Norton’s recent Leicester win and ideal draw (3) align with Ralph Beckett’s 20.8% win rate. Cosi Bello (draw 1) and Principality lack the same win credentials.
Recommended Bet▸
- Brize Norton (Draw 3, Hector Crouch, Ralph Beckett) Win bet at 11/4.
Humdinger▸
- No Bet ~
Result▸
- 1st▸ 7 Dance In The Storm 5/2JF
- 2nd▸ 5 Santa Savana 5/1
-
Tote Win: 3.50
Places: 1.70, 2.30
Exacta: 12.90
CSF: 15.04
Trifecta: 28.60
Distances: 3 lengths
Principality 5/2 JF
Dance In The Storm 5/2 JF
5 ran:
Non Runners: 1 4
Draw Bias▸ Minimal for 1m1f+, but +22yd rail movement may slightly favour middle draws (6 ~ 10). High draws (15 ~ 17) could be challenging.
Crown Imperial’s promising Newbury debut and William Haggas’s 23.8% win rate (145.9% SP ROI) make it the pick. Ideal draw (4) beats Klassleader’s speculative debut and Bull Run’s high draw.
Recommended Bet▸
- Crown Imperial (Draw 4, Tom Marquand, William Haggas) Win bet at 4/1.
Humdinger▸
- Desert Heart (Draw 1, Kieran Shoemark, Ed Walker) Each-way bet at 14/1.
Result▸
- 1st▸ 17 Wave Rider 9/4F
- 2nd▸ 13 Respond 12/1
- 3rd▸ 9 Hinchinbrooke 13/2
-
Tote Win: 3.40
Places: 1.60, 3.20, 1.70
Exacta: 35.40
CSF: 29.09
Trifecta: 142.90
Distances: 3 lengths, 3/4 length
Wave Rider 9/4 F
12 ran:
Non Runners: 3 4 7 14 16
Draw Bias▸ Minimal for 1m, but +22yd rail movement may favour middle draws (4 ~ 7). High draws (10 ~ 11) may be slightly disadvantaged.
Cradle Of Love’s recent Yarmouth second and Ryan Moore’s 101.2% SP ROI make it a strong win bet. Low draw (1) is fine, and Soho Square (draw 11) and She’s The Duchess lack Moore’s edge.
Recommended Bet▸
- Cradle Of Love (Draw 1, Ryan Moore, Ollie Sangster) Win bet at 5/1.
Humdinger▸
- British Blue (Draw 8, Sean Levey, Richard Hannon) Each-way bet at 12/1.
Result▸
- 1st▸ 2 Chiringita 10/3
- 2nd▸ 6 Cradle Of Love 9/1
- 3rd▸ 5 Eazy On The Eye 33/1
-
Tote Win: 4.34
Places: 1.60, 2.10, 6.40
Exacta: 31.10
CSF: 32.58
Tricast: 835.47
Trifecta: 485.90
Distances: 2 lengths, Neck
She's The Duchess 11/4 F
8 ran:
Non Runners: 3 8 11
Draw Bias▸ Middle draws (4 ~ 7) slightly favoured due to rail movement.
Renewal’s Lingfield third and Rossa Ryan’s 144.1% SP ROI with Ralph Beckett’s 20.8% win rate make it a value pick. Low draw (1) suits, and Take A Breath and Star Of Dubai are less convincing.
Recommended Bet▸
- Renewal (Draw 1, Rossa Ryan, Ralph Beckett) Win bet at 5/1.
Humdinger▸
- Blue Wonder (Draw 7, David Egan, Hughie Morrison) Each-way bet at 14/1.
Result▸
- 1st▸ 2 Take A Breath 9/4
- 2nd▸ 7 Star Of Dubai 2/1F
-
Tote Win: 3.25
Places: 1.50, 1.80
Exacta: 9.10
CSF: 7.22
Tricast: 24.40
Trifecta: 40.40
Distances: 1 1/2 length
Star Of Dubai 2/1 F
6 ran:
Non Runners: 3 5 9 10
Draw Bias▸ Minimal for 1m6f, but middle draws (4 ~ 8) may be optimal due to rail positioning.
Road To Wembley’s Kempton win and suitability for 1m6f, paired with Ryan Moore’s 26.1% win rate, make it a top choice. Low draw (3) is ideal, and Russian Crescendo and Struth need more.
Recommended Bet▸
- Road To Wembley (Draw 3, Ryan Moore, Richard Hughes) Win bet at 5/1.
Humdinger▸
- Struth (Draw 9, Billy Loughnane, Charlie Johnston) Each-way bet at 14/1.
Result▸
- 1st▸ 2 Youthful King 17/2
- 2nd▸ 3 Fireblade 10/1
- 3rd▸ 9 Road To Wembley 9/4F
-
Tote Win: 9.50
Places: 2.50, 3.40, 1.50
Exacta: 89.10
CSF: 92.12
Tricast: 258.38
Trifecta: 419.20
Distances: 2 1/4 lengths, 1 1/2 length
Road To Wembley 9/4 F
10 ran:
Non Runners: 5 10
| Time | Horse | Draw | Jockey/Trainer | Bet Type | Odds | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1:30 | Watching Stars | 7 | Ryan Moore/Charlie Appleby | Win | 5/2 | Ideal draw▸ elite jockey/trainer▸ strong form |
| 2:05 | Classic | 3 | Ryan Moore/Richard Hannon | Win | 7/2 | Low draw▸ Moore’s form▸ market support |
| 2:40 | Star Of Mehmas | 2 | Ryan Moore/Richard Hughes | Win | 9/4 | Moore’s skill▸ strong form despite low draw |
| 3:15 | Brize Norton | 3 | Hector Crouch/Ralph Beckett | Win | 11/4 | Ideal draw▸ Beckett’s form▸ progressive |
| 3:50 | Crown Imperial | 4 | Tom Marquand/William Haggas | Win | 4/1 | Ideal draw▸ W Haggas form▸ high win potential |
| 4:25 | Cradle Of Love | 1 | Ryan Moore/Ollie Sangster | Win | 5/1 | Low draw fine▸ Moore’s form▸ strong recent run |
| 5:00 | Renewal | 1 | Rossa Ryan/Ralph Beckett | Win | 5/1 | Low draw▸ Ryan/Beckett’s high ROI▸ progressive |
| 5:35 | Road To Wembley | 3 | Ryan Moore/Richard Hughes | Win | 5/1 | Low draw▸ Moore’s form▸ suited to trip |
| Time | Horse (Draw) | Jockey | Trainer | Odds | Why a Humdinger? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1:30 | Bulletin (5) | Rob Hornby | Jonathan Perrett | 12/1 | Ideal draw 5 with +22yd rail movement▸ consistent form (four top-four finishes)▸ competitive at OR 81. |
| 2:05 | Mr Professor (8) | David Egan | Raphael E Freire | 14/1 | Strong draw 8▸ Egan’s 133.7% SP ROI▸ recent fifth at Newmarket shows form at OR 92. |
| 2:40 | Kullazain (8) | Oisin Murphy | James Tate | 14/1 | Perfect draw 8 for 5f (~38% win rate)▸ Murphy’s 50.5% place rate▸ prior Sandown third. |
| 3:15 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 3:50 | Desert Heart (1) | Kieran Shoemark | Ed Walker | 14/1 | Safe draw 1▸ Walker’s 40.0% place rate▸ promising fourth at Leicester for maiden upset. |
| 4:25 | British Blue (8) | Sean Levey | Richard Hannon | 12/1 | Strong draw 8▸ Hannon’s 27.9% place rate▸ well-handicapped at OR 73 after Goodwood run. |
| 5:00 | Blue Wonder (7) | David Egan | Hughie Morrison | 14/1 | Ideal draw 7▸ Egan’s 133.7% SP ROI▸ second at 7f suggests upside at OR 75. |
| 5:35 | Struth (9) | Billy Loughnane | Charlie Johnston | 14/1 | Good draw 9▸ strong Chester fourth▸ well-handicapped at OR 81 for staying trip. |
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