SANDRACER.COM - Kempton Bets - Sat March 29 2008

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Kempton Bets - Sat March 29 2008

live racing commentaries2:05 Kempton (AW Polytrack)
# No Bet.

2:40 Kempton (AW Polytrack)
# No Bet.

3:10 Kempton (AW Polytrack)
Charlie Tokyo. (4th 33/1) behind, headway 2f out, stayed on well near finish, 4th.

3:45 Kempton (AW Polytrack)
# No Bet.

4:15 Kempton (AW Polytrack)
# No Bet.

4:50 Kempton (AW Polytrack)
# No Bet.

5:25 Kempton (AW Polytrack)
Corum. (Unplaced 16/1) led and set steady pace, quicken pace 1 mile out, ridden and headed 2f out, soon weakened, 6th.

Stake: 2 X £1.00 Win Singles = £2.00
Returns: 0.00
Total: - £2.00

Posted at 06:42, Saturday, 29 March 2008 by the Sandracer

Charlie Tokyo best price available is 33/1 at Betfred

Comment Posted By Blogger Sandracer - 29 March 2008 at 09:10 

Best price available on Corum is 20/1 at Bet365.

(1) 1261-54 St Savarin
B R Johnson N Pollard 10/1 Bet
(5) 535730- Som Tala
M R Channon C Catlin 4/1 Bet
(8) 0/93186- Corum
Miss K Marks William Buick 20/1

(4) 3050-27 Moon Mix
J R Jenkins J-P Guillambert 10/1 Bet
(3) 2102/3-1 Buster Hyvonen
J R Fanshawe O Urbina 13/8 Bet
(7) 512321 Calculating
M D I Usher N Callan 7/2 Bet
(2) 17116-3 Gallileo Figaro
N B King Luke Morris 10/1 Bet
Favourite SP Bet
2nd Favourite SP Bet

Non Runners: Romany Prince
Velvet Heights

Comment Posted By Blogger Sandracer - 29 March 2008 at 09:24 

3:10 - rosebery stakes (heritage handicap) (class 2)

Even though Pricewise has napped it, I’ve backed Philatelist anti-post in the 3.10 Kempton. Unlike the rest of the lemmings who has jumped on the band wagon I was actually at Lingfield to watch the Winter Derby and as most people have noted, Philatelist was cut to pieces in the final stages of that race by others jostling for position.

Not saying that he’ll win today, but that race was much better than this one however, I do “like” the look of Players Please and the stats/trends are against Philatelist with no favourite winning this race in 10 years. Throw into the mix the lowest priced SP is 9/1, all the indicators point to unexposed types who’s chances have been dismissed by the great unwashed and bookies.

So, applying my handicapping chaos theories (as the historical prices indicate this is a chaos race) I’ve turned the betting forecast on its head.

Working backwards I arrived at the following runners who in my opinion have escaped the attentions of the handicapper (draw number is [brackets])

Gold Prospect [11], Permanent Way [14], Pinch Of Salt [12], Heron Bay [3]

What’s also prevalent from the stats is that a high draw is favoured regardless of whether the race was run on turf or polytrack therefore logic dictates that Heron Bay is off the shortlist.

Ok now to cover myself if I’m wrong. I’ll use the exacta as a place bet given that the likelihood is that my outsiders will come second

a. Philatelist b. Players Please c. Gold Prospect d. Permanent Way e. Pinch Of Salt

Bet: Gold Prospect, Permanent Way, Pinch Of Salt
Exacta: AB/ABCDE (8 lines)

Comment Posted By Blogger Slipperytoad - 29 March 2008 at 12:15 

I hope you got some of that 6's available on Philatelist this morning, before the Pricewise punters moved the price.

Comment Posted By Blogger Sandracer - 29 March 2008 at 15:17 

Yep! The early bird caught the worm.

Comment Posted By Blogger Slipperytoad - 29 March 2008 at 15:58 

Placepot: £133.90 Pool:£86,004.45 468.85 winning tickets Quadpot: £10.00 Pool:£4,152.10 304.50 winning tickets

KEMPTON 5:25 Full Results >>
1st 8 Calculating (IRE) 10/3 Winning jockey N Callan
Trainer M D I Usher
Owner Mr Brian Rogan

2nd 7 Buster Hyvonen (IRE) 5/2
7 Ran
NR: Romany Prince, Velvet Heights (IRE)

TOTE: Win:£4.60 Place:£1.70,£2.00 Exacta:£10.70
CSF: £12.86 TRICAST: £20.71
Favourite: Som Tala 2/1

KEMPTON 4:50 Full Results >>
1st 4 Edge Closer 2/1 Winning jockey P Dobbs
Trainer R Hannon
Owner Lady Whent & Friends

2nd 3 Ceremonial Jade (UAE) 11/8 Fav
6 Ran
NR: King of Dixie (USA)

TOTE: Win:£2.90 Place:£1.80,£1.70 Exacta:£5.00
CSF: £5.19

KEMPTON 4:15 Full Results >>
1st 1 Asaint Needs Brass (USA) 15/8 Fav Winning jockey S Sanders
Trainer R M Beckett
Owner Tony Perkins, J Cameron & Wendy Smith

2nd 9 Sub Prime (IRE) 7/2
3rd 6 Imperial Skylight 5/1
9 Ran
NR: Old Father Zieten

TOTE: Win:£2.60 Place:£1.30,£1.30,£2.00 Exacta:£11.30
CSF: £8.80

KEMPTON 3:45 Full Results >>
1st 6 Kandidate 9/4 Winning jockey N Callan
Trainer C E Brittain
Owner Exors of the late Mr A J Richards

2nd 4 Illustrious Blue 12/1
3rd 8 Spice Route 14/1
8 Ran
TOTE: Win:£3.20 Place:£1.60,£2.70,£3.20 Exacta:£34.40 Trifecta:£322.10
CSF: £30.20
Favourite: Diamond Tycoon (USA) 15/8

KEMPTON 3:10 Full Results >>
1st 7 Philatelist (USA) 5/2 Fav Winning jockey N Callan
Trainer M A Jarvis
Owner Mr Gary A Tanaka

2nd 6 Mr Aviator (USA) 13/2
3rd 10 John Terry (IRE) 12/1
14 Ran
NR: Ballinteni

TOTE: Win:£2.90 Place:£1.60,£2.80,£4.20 Exacta:£23.70 Trifecta:£591.50
CSF: £18.76 TRICAST: £179.41

KEMPTON 2:40 Full Results >>
1st 5 Vhujon (IRE) 16/1 Winning jockey T G McLaughlin
Trainer P D Evans
Owner Mr Nick Shutts

2nd 7 Soopacal (IRE) 7/1
3rd 1 Hammadi (IRE) 8/1
10 Ran
TOTE: Win:£24.10 Place:£5.30,£2.60,£3.00 Exacta:£204.20 Trifecta:£341.70
CSF: £127.55 TRICAST: £712.52
Favourite: Chartist 4/1

KEMPTON 2:05 Full Results >>
1st 1 Red Rumour (IRE) 12/1 Winning jockey S Sanders
Trainer R M Beckett
Owner Mr R Roberts

2nd 3 Elna Bright 25/1
3rd 7 Upper Class (IRE) 11/4 Fav
12 Ran
NR: Straight And Level (CAN)

TOTE: Win:£10.90 Place:£2.70,£7.10,£1.40 Exacta:£190.30 Trifecta:£297.10
CSF: £280.33 TRICAST: £1078.48

Comment Posted By Blogger Sandracer - 29 March 2008 at 20:30 

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