SANDRACER.COM ALL WEATHER RACING BLOG

6:40 Baileys Polka Dot (14/1) had some decent French form earlier in her career. She hasn't done very much in England.

I think the easier track of Chelmsford's long sweeping bends will suit her running style. Her last run at Kempton was a nightmare. She got bumped early, hampered at the end and generally pushed around all over the place.

The 14/1 on offer is more than reasonable. Cheers, Sandracer.

5:25 3yo American Fashion (12/1) looks likely to be suited to the drop to 5f, and the drop in class to a G5. She has led the field on her two AW starts, but was easily caught.

This time around, in this small, arguably weaker field, I think she might just hold them off at decent odds after drifting like a barge in the betting.

5:45 Lexington Knight (25/1) is having his first go on the Southwell AW. You can't discount a Hannon horse wherever they run.

The 25/1 on offer the horse does what he's done at other tracks, ie win his fair share, first time up, is worth a punt.

6:43 Expert Agent (28/1) has 4 career wins, 3 on polytrack, so he goes on the surface no problem. He's running well currently, winning at Windsor 2 races back, beaten 5 lengths in a G2 last time, this G4 is not beyond him at all.

The 28/1 on offer is generous and worth a win bet. I would give you 10/1 tops. Cheers, Sandracer.

7:08 Porfin (9/1) is running quite well at present and looks a decent bet to win this small field handicap.

His last 2 runs on turf I have put a line through. His last AW run 3 races back was a victory carrying 53 at Wolver over 7f.

The 1lb rise is more than fair. The Lingfield 6f is no problem. The 9/1 on offer looks to me, to be twice the price it should be. Cheers, Sandracer.

4:30 Bellagio Man (14/1) is running well enough at present to be given a reasonable chance of winning carrying 72. His last run over the C&D was a victory at 80.

Of course, to be now at 72, he'll have had to not run so well lately to be dropped in mark. I think his last run on the AW was not so bad at Newcastle. A never nearer, running on, 2 length defeat carrying 74.

A better timed run in this lower classed handicap puts him right in the fun spot at decent odds to win.

5:05 Back From Dubai (22/1) seems to particularly like front running at Southwell. He's running ok on the AW, not so much on the turf.

His last couple of runs have been trouncings on grass. I think that's why the price is at no hoper numbers.

Back at Southwell on the AW, from the front, Cieren Fallon taking the ride for the 1st time, I'll give him a chance. Cheers, Sandracer.