SANDRACER.COM - Kempton Bets - Sat Mar 22 2008

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Kempton Bets - Sat Mar 22 2008

live racing commentaries2:10 Kempton (AW Polytrack)
# No Bet.

2:45 Kempton (AW Polytrack)
# No Bet.

3:15 Kempton (AW Polytrack)
# No Bet.

3:50 Kempton (AW Polytrack)
# No Bet.

4:25 Kempton (AW Polytrack)
# No Bet.

5:00 Kempton (AW Polytrack)
Bomber Command. (Unplaced 11/2) prominent, ridden and effort on inner 2f out, not quicken over 1f out, kept on one pace, 6th.

5:35 Kempton (AW Polytrack)
# No Bet.

Stake: 1 X £1.00 Win Single = £1.00
Returns: 0.00
Total: - £1.00

Posted at 23:05, Friday, 21 March 2008 by the Sandracer

After my blog musings, to ensure I don’t completely abandon the “value methodology” I will adopt an approach that I used to apply during my early handicapping days.

Once I have my shortlist I will then assign fair odds to each contender equal to the number of contenders in the race. If it was a two-horse race, they’d both get 2-to-1 fair odds. Three contenders get 3-to-1 fair odds; four contenders, 4-to-1 fair odds, five contenders, 5-to-1 fair odds, six contenders, 6-to-1 fair odds, etc.

Its quick, dirty method but simple method of assigning odds and allows me to focus on what I consider to be my strength which is contender selection until I gain a lot more experience in odds compilation.

If the race is wide open (as indicated by more than 2 overlays) win bets are not applicable as there is more value in the exacta pool (et Barry Meadows – Money Secrets at the Racetrack). The approach for this bet will be based on perms that are overlays based on my minimum acceptable odds assessment.

2:10 - handicap

Qualifiers: Toms Laughter, Figaro Flyer, Reigning Monarch, Linda Green, Arfinnit

Min acceptable odds: 5/1

Depending on how the market assesses the chances of Reigning Monarch, Linda Green and Arfinnitt I quite fancy Figaro Flyer for this one.

5:00 - big jackpots at handicap

Qualifiers: Super Frank, Bomber Command, Mcnairobi, Kyle, Resplendent Nova

Min acceptable odds 5/1

Put a gun to my head and I would say that it’s a race between Bomber Command, Mcnairobi with Kyle being a likely outsider. An exacta bet looks the percentage call this side of the race.

Comment Posted By Blogger Slipperytoad - 22 March 2008 at 09:52 

5.00 Kempton Early Odds From Bet365

5.00 Kempton
Each-way 1/4 1-2-3
7f Handicap Flat

(9) 5688-97 Bomber Command
J W Hills S Drowne 8/1 7/1 Bet
(6) 1010-89 Resplendent Nova
P Howling F Norton 12/1 Bet
(3) 840-611 Buxton
R Ingram D Kinsella 8/1 12/1 Bet
(8) 384786 Qadar
N P Littmoden Jim Crowley 10/1 Bet
(7) 23/P7-76 Markab
K A Morgan P Cosgrave 20/1 16/1 Bet
(5) 74-4221 Super Frank
J Akehurst T P Queally 7/2 Bet
(4) 40/1435- McNairobi
P D Cundell J P Spencer 6/1 Bet
(12) 304606- Kyle
R Hannon R L Moore 9/1 Bet
(10) 904930- Our Blessing
A P Jarvis N Pollard 25/1 Bet
(1) 55071-4 Spring Goddess
A P Jarvis R Thomas 14/1 Bet
(2) 41617-6 Hessian
M D Squance Martin Dwyer 16/1 Bet
(11) 335132 Count Ceprano
M D I Usher Hayley Turner 6/1 Bet
Favourite SP Bet
2nd Favourite SP Bet
Non Runners:

Comment Posted By Blogger Sandracer - 22 March 2008 at 16:38 

As I have mentioned before Slipper..

Pricing up is not something I have ever felt comfortable with regarding horses.

I know "how" to do it, because I do it with football easy enough.

Horseraces now, well that's a whole new ball game.

Comment Posted By Blogger Sandracer - 22 March 2008 at 16:50 

finding it tough Mr Sandracer and not even hitting the cross bar with the selections which compounds the problem :-(

Comment Posted By Blogger Slipperytoad - 22 March 2008 at 18:40 

Placepot: £107.70 Pool:£50,215.10 340.10 winning tickets Quadpot: £11.80 Pool:£3,010.20 188.20 winning tickets

KEMPTON 5:35 Full Results >>
1st 2 The Carlton Cannes Evs Fav Winning jockey S Drowne
Trainer G Wragg
Owner Mr J L C Pearce

2nd 1 Outlandish 8/1
7 Ran
TOTE: Win:£2.30 Place:£1.40,£4.20 Exacta:£14.30
CSF: £11.44

KEMPTON 5:00 Full Results >>
1st 5 Markab 16/1 Winning jockey P Cosgrave
Trainer K A Morgan
Owner Tight Lines Partnership

2nd 12 Count Ceprano (IRE) 15/2
3rd 2 Resplendent Nova 10/1
12 Ran
TOTE: Win:£26.00 Place:£6.20,£2.00,£3.80 Exacta:£273.70
CSF: £136.64 TRICAST: £1312.37
Favourite: Super Frank (IRE) 7/2

KEMPTON 4:25 Full Results >>
1st 5 Malt Or Mash (USA) 8/11 Fav Winning jockey R L Moore
Trainer R Hannon
Owner Mr A P Patey

2nd 6 Miramare (GER) 6/1
6 Ran
TOTE: Win:£1.60 Place:£1.10,£2.50 Exacta:£5.00
CSF: £6.31

KEMPTON 3:50 Full Results >>
1st 5 Thebes 1/2 Fav Winning jockey Greg Fairley
Trainer M Johnston
Owner Sheikh Hamdan Bin Mohammed Al Maktoum

2nd 2 Wigram's Turn (USA) 9/2
3rd 8 Artistic License (IRE) 28/1
8 Ran
TOTE: Win:£1.70 Place:£1.02,£1.60,£7.60 Exacta:£5.10
CSF: £3.81 TRICAST: £36.76

KEMPTON 3:15 Full Results >>
1st 1 Cordell (IRE) 7/2 JtFav Winning jockey R L Moore
Trainer R Hannon
Owner Mrs J Wood

2nd 5 Formation (USA) 5/1
3rd 2 Atabaas Pride 4/1
10 Ran
NR: Ocean Transit (IRE), Hucking Hero (IRE), Monashee Rock (IRE)

TOTE: Win:£4.90 Place:£1.80,£1.40,£1.80 Exacta:£22.20
CSF: £20.69 TRICAST: £74.78
Favourite: Admiral Dundas (IRE) 7/2

KEMPTON 2:45 Full Results >>
1st 7 Mullein 7/4 Fav Winning jockey Jim Crowley
Trainer R M Beckett
Owner Landmark Racing Limited

2nd 3 Irish Music (IRE) 12/1
3rd 4 Sir Billy Nick 11/4
8 Ran
NR: Nice Wee Girl (IRE)

TOTE: Win:£2.80 Place:£1.10,£2.50,£1.50 Exacta:£29.30
CSF: £24.79

KEMPTON 2:10 Full Results >>
1st 1 Toms Laughter 4/1 Fav Winning jockey K Ghunowa
Trainer R Harris
Owner Five To Follow

2nd 9 Bertie Swift 25/1
3rd 10 Mind Alert 25/1
11 Ran
NR: Choreography

TOTE: Win:£4.60 Place:£1.90,£6.10,£5.30 Exacta:£124.70
CSF: £109.76 TRICAST: £1582.76

Comment Posted By Blogger Sandracer - 23 March 2008 at 00:43 

i've had a look before at pricing up a card and it about blew my brains up

Comment Posted By Anonymous Anonymous - 23 March 2008 at 13:58 

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